WI: Benign Tsetse?

Antelope, which have existed with the tsetse fly and trypanosomiasis for millions of years longer than human, have immunity against animal sleeping sickness. Humans, cattle and other animals do not. Historically, humans avoiding tsetse-infested areas which reduced the likelihood of acquiring immunity against sleeping sickness. But what if humans had acquired that immunity?

Tsetse and the sleeping sickness were one of the major limitations on the human population of Africa and the expansion of agriculture into fertile lands. Removal of this constraint would see a greater expansion of human numbers in sub-Saharan Africa and the wider and more successful use of agriculture. The increased population would then be much more likely to reach the demographic pressure point for economic, social and political change and development.

Animal trypanasomiasis would still be an issue, however. So regions where tsetse are found would likely be devoted to agricultural with human power, while other areas used for raising cattle. Could see an interesting cultural divide between these two groups. The expansion of farmers at the expense of hunter-gatherers ITTL may occur earlier.

Africa, with a higher and more dynamic population, would likely have earlier and more sustained contact with Eurasia. It would become a source of disease, particularly if Eurasians lack immunity to the sleeping sickness. As Eurasian, and later American, crops reach Africa they will bolster the gains made by the defeat of sleeping sickness.

We are likely to see states and empires over a larger area of Africa than OTL, and more warfare. Other restrictions on human population expansion still exist, however. Malaria and bilhazaria will plague this Africa as OTL, and human farmers competition with elephants over land will be an issue. But in general the range and numbers of the human population of Africa would be much higher, which would make the region much more important and influential to world history.
 
Sleeping sickness can afflict humans, but it's really the inability to use livestock that held back Central Africa. Your scenario doesn't really make much difference - you would just end up having somewhat larger slave populations. If livestock were immune to sleeping sickness, then you could have advanced civilizations in the "Heart of Darkness".
 
True, but I think you're underestimating the effect of human sleeping sickness on the populations. Over 10 million square kilometres are infected by the tsetse fly, and much of it is some of Africa's most productive land. The symptoms of the disease also make it difficult for human beings to produce sufficient food to meet their own needs, let alone expand. Opening up that land would have a huge effect on the cultures that develop there.

Your point about livestock stands, though. If humans and cattle both developed immunity against sleeping sickness, it would be revolutionary. Perhaps unlikely and fortuitious, but not entirely ASB. The diseases would still affect other animals (horses and camels, I'm thinking) which would have an effect on how the cultures developed.
 
As the Sahara dessicated, the large population that existed as pasturalists in this region moved south, and largely settled the emerging Sahel. The tsetse fly marked the southern border. If humans develop immunity to sleeping sickness, it is likely that large numbers will migrate south in numbers far exceeding OTL. Cattle, still affected by the tsetse, remain the province of the northern pasturalists while the more populated south sees the faster, more successful and widespread agriculture south of the Sahel. Particularly, the Niger and the Volta rivers would see greater numbers of human population. Other diseases, such as bilhazaria and malaria, still wreck havoc on human cultures in the region, but the human populations soon develop a greater immunity to these diseases.

With larger population bases, closer-knitted trade networks and agricultural surpluses, the African egalitarian and age-grade social organisation systems are replaced by hierachical structures and coercive centralised authorities. Cities and towns of much greater numbers emerge. The expansion of iron-using, agricultural peoples into southern Africa is faster and more successful, penetrating regions such as the Congo coast and central Zaire river (and perhaps the northern Zambezi later). These states trade with each other and further afield, and develop advanced metal-working techniques, resembling larger versions of OTL's Ikbo-Ukwu culture.

Sorghum and other cereal agriculture using terraces and irrigation canals allow for a large population with surpluses. When bananas are introduced from Asia, and much later cassava and maize from the New World, these populations grow even larger. Elephant numbers drop across the continent, as competition with farmers and demand for ivory decimates their populations.

In this Africa, surplus labour means that wealth in materials rather than humans is more greater prized. Africa's servile institutions, while still present as elsewhere in the world, are not as fundamental. Instead of elders dominated townships, kings rule large states with urban centres. Metal-working is advanced, and centralised power combined with surplus population means greater warfare, and more weapons. Charcoal demand in iron-production sees the decimation of forest, with the added effect of reducing mosquito numbers and reducing malarial infection, as well as creating savanna for the development of pasturalisation.

There is growing continent-wide trade, of a variety of items. Of particularly importance is the trade of food goods between the pasturalists of the Sahel and later Eastern Africa, and the settled farmers of West and Central Africa. There is also greater trade in luxury goods. With more emphasis on material wealth, there is greater demand for gold within Africa itself, meaning the gold trade across the Sahara is much reduced. The slave trade, though surely existant, will be very different from OTL.

These urbanised states, with larger populations, organised societies, a history of mass warfare and extending over a vast region, will have a long and complex history of interaction with the Mediterranean, Middle East and the Indian Ocean trade networks. It will serve as a potent disease environment, and a severe barrier to the expansion of Europeans around the coast of Africa. If the kingdoms along the coastline take to sea travel they could inadvertantly discover Brazil (though they may find little of use there unless they stumble across quinine.)

Gunpowder weapons will serve to further reinforce centralised authority. As in OTL, environmental conditions will mean the flintlock is adopted in Africa even faster than Europe, but the Africans are more likely to develop the means to manufacture their own weapons. With a reduced or at least very different slave trade, reduced gun trade and greater internal production of goods, this would would see European culture at a relative disadvantage and Africans much better able to stand up to Eurasian influence.
 
Here's an illustration of the areas affected by tsetse, which has been a major influence in keeping some of the most potential rewarding agricultural regions of Africa from being utilized. The PoD basically opens this entire area up to the lucky sods who develop immunity.

Cattle pasturalisation is likely to remain important ITTL.

tsetse_map500x448.jpg
 

mojojojo

Gone Fishin'
Given the more advanced state of civilization in this TL, would the Africans make use of elephants they way Asians did?
 
African elephants are harder to domesticate than Asian elephants, and the breed of African elephants used by the Carthaginians and others went extinct in OTL due to overexploitation. They may be domesticated and used, but the African forest elephant would likely be too difficult to domesticate and be too much of a competitor to human farmers.

The Congo Pygmy Elephant, if it exists, may be exploited ITTL if it proves amenable to domestication.
 
Top