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I kinda wish I could think of a more succinct thread title than that, but whatever.

I have a what if question involving two PODs, both occurring in 540-541. The Romans/Byzantines under Justinian I was trying to conquer as much of the western half of the empire as was feasible, and the general Belisarius (who had already conquered North Africa from the Vandals) was in charge of the effort to reconquer Italy from the Ostrogoths. Despite not having the manpower and resources he should have been given for the campaign, Belisarius managed to seriously weaken the Ostrogoths to the point that, by 540, he had taken Ravenna, the Ostrogothic capital, and seemed to be mere months away from defeating them once and for all.

However, Justinian decided to recall Belisarius from Italy before he could finish the campaign. While Belisarius was elsewhere, the Ostrogoths regrouped under Totila, and managed to reconquer much of Italy over the next decade. Belisarius is eventually sent back to Italy to stop them, but with even fewer resources than before, is unable to do so, and it is not until 551-554 that fellow Eastern Roman general Narses fully defeats the Ostrogoths.

One reason for the lack of manpower and resources when Belisarius returned to Italy in the 540s was due to the Plague of Justinian. While a plague obviously negatively affects everyone it encounters, this plague truly devastated the Eastern Roman Empire, killing millions in 541-542.

So onto my WI. How could you convince Justinian to not recall Belisarius from Italy, and what would be the effects of this? Also, how would the lack of the Plague of Justinian affect the Empire and the wider region?
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