18th century PoDs for this discussed over in SHWI
On Nov 10, 4:06 pm, AlexMilman <alexmil...@msn.com> wrote:
> On Nov 9, 8:51 pm, Rob <raharris1...@my-deja.com> wrote:
>
> >
http://rooksmoor.blogspot.com/2010/0...n-created.html
>
> > This guy gets into some detailed conjecture on lack of a Belgium. It
> > deals entirely with the post 1815 period. Below is some info ona
> > possible absorption of most of Belgium into France in the 18th
> > century.
>
> IIRC, as a result of the War for the Austrian Succession France ended
> up with a complete or almost complete occupation of the Austrian
> Netherlands. If Louis XV did not decide to give it all back he would
> end up with a posession of one of the most prosperous and developed
> parts of XVIII Europe (and an important port of Antewrp). His
> popularity in France does not suffer (as in OTL), he is more
> influential in his foreign policy and does not have to play "King's
> Secret", confusing his own ministers and eventually weakening French
> status in Europe.
>
> France gets noticeably stronger both economically and geographically.
> If Louis is not ending up being involved in the 7YW _in Europe_ (no
> immediate French interests had been involved beyond very vague
> 'Prussian danger'), then France is in a better position vs. the GB in
> Americas and India. Even with the outcome close to OTL, France is
> still better economically and chances are that the French Revolution
> is not happening.
Interestingly, what you brought up is an even earlier PoD than the ones I linked to from Wikipedia. In the links I provided, I highlighted a short-lived treaty where Austria pledged to voluntarily transfer Belgium to the Bourbons. In the war of Austrian succession scenario, the French took over the Austrian Netherlands by invasion. They faced Austrian, British Hanoverian and other German opposition on the continent, while being allied to Prussia and Bavaria. I think King George II led British troops in battle on the continent in this war.
I would think that, given its alliances, the French would have a decent shot militarily at occupying and holding the Austrian Netherlands to the end, but in the OTL treaty they may have traded occupied portions of that territory in exchange for recovering territories, like Louisbourg, lost to the British overseas. An attempt to hold Belgium could have been met by British overseas campaigns and more active engagement of the Russians, who were involved on the Rhine front by the end of the war.
Given the Austrian-French alliance of the 1750s, and their agreement to transfer the Austrian Netherlands to France, it is quite amazing the French did not walk away with the territory. Frederick the Great was winning crucial battles but he was too far away and too beleaguered to keep the French at bay in that territory.
Yes, the Austrians stipulated that France would in turn be obligated to turn over Parma to the Habsburgs and help them regain Silesia, but it appears that the Austrians decided against the territorial exchange even before they were sure the war was lost. ISTM to me that France could have kept the territories, following through on its obligation to give away Parma, telling the Austrians that it was fulfilling its obligation by simply trying to help them regain Silesia, whether that was going to work or not, and, when that campaign failed, possibly finding Austria other territory to compensate it with.
------How might this alternative work for a French Belgium, a few decades later than the one you brought up.
What if France restrains itself during the American Revolt and decides that when two groups of englishmen are digging their own grave, it is best not to interrupt them. Meanwhile, while the cat (Britain) is away, the mice (France and its continental allies) will play. In 1777, while remaining neutral vis-a-vis the American revolution, France makes a deal to absorb Belgium in exchange for supporting Austria's claims to the Bavarian throne. It would seem to me that a hostile coalition would have trouble stopping the Franco-Austrian coalition from working its will, especially in Belgium and northern Italy.