WI: Belgium occupies Armenia in 1895?

[fluttersky]

According to Wikipedia, King Leopold II of Belgium told British Prime Minister Salisbury that he was prepared to send his Congolese Force Publique to "invade and occupy" Armenia, in response to the massacres of Armenians in 1895.

Needless to say, that did not end up happening. But what if it had?

I'm guessing Belgium might occupy the Six Armenian Vilayets, and also the Adana and Aleppo vilayets which had substantial Armenian populations too and the Trebizond vilayet due to its geographic proximity. Something like this map.

What might the consequences of this have been? I'm guessing it would speed up the decline of the Ottoman Empire, what with its Arabian territory now separated from the rest of the empire.

How would a Belgian Armenia be administered?

 

[Mr_Fanboy]

Putting aside whether any other outside power would let this happen, does the Belgium of this era even have the military capability to defeat the Ottoman Empire so thoroughly?

 

[Archduke]

Putting aside whether any other outside power would let this happen, does the Belgium of this era even have the military capability to defeat the Ottoman Empire so thoroughly?

I very much doubt it, I guess the goal would be to incite an incident and force the International Community to react and resolve the crisis. Similar to how Greece's actions in Crete in 1897 (Greece lost) resulted in a change in Crete's political situation.

 

[ennobee]

In the long run: a new brand of beer: the Armenian IPA....

 

[Nivek]

According to Wikipedia, King Leopold II of Belgium told British Prime Minister Salisbury that he was prepared to send his Congolese Force Publique to "invade and occupy" Armenia, in response to the massacres of Armenians in 1895.

Needless to say, that did not end up happening. But what if it had?

I'm guessing Belgium might occupy the Six Armenian Vilayets, and also the Adana and Aleppo vilayets which had substantial Armenian populations too and the Trebizond vilayet due to its geographic proximity. Something like this map.

View attachment 475239

What might the consequences of this have been? I'm guessing it would speed up the decline of the Ottoman Empire, what with its Arabian territory now separated from the rest of the empire.

How would a Belgian Armenia be administered?

They will be arrested by their own police, that is stupid and will end badly for belgium and leopold even if the belgian parliament throw him under the bus.

 

[skarosianlifeform]

I want to see a timeline about this.

 

[Anneessens]

even if the belgian parliament throw him under the bus.

Which doesn't seem ASB. I guess that, as leader of the independent Congo Free State, he legally had the power to decide to send the Force publique to Armenia, but it's certainly not going to sit well with many members of Belgium's political elite - his colonial ambitions were far from unanimously supported by Belgium's political elite, which feared that it might endanger the country's geopolitical neutrality, to which it was bound by virtue of the 1839 Treaty of London. This treaty was the cornerstone of the country's international existence, as it, by way of reciprocity, committed the Great Powers to respect the country's independence. Note that Russia, which always had an interest in its Ottoman neighbour, was one of the signatories.

Mingling in Ottoman affairs certainly wouldn't have sat well with them. Leopold, for all his flaws, wasn't stupid - he knew this. If the statement, apparently to be found in Hochschild's King Leopold's Ghost, was indeed uttered by Leopold, I guess he was only "bragging", in the full knowledge that he wouldn't be actually be lead to send his Force publique. But if he does - it doesn't spell well for him. They won't (literally) throw him under the bus, but a creative application of (then) article 62 of the Belgian constituion - forbidding the king of being the head of state of another country without parliament's approval - doesn't seem unlikely.

And it might have important geopolitical implications if things go out of hand. Perhaps a revision of the Treaty of London, or perhaps it might become politically more difficult to invoke it when WW1 starts (assuming it isn't butterflied away).

 

[Nivek]

And it might have important geopolitical implications if things go out of hand. Perhaps a revision of the Treaty of London, or perhaps it might become politically more difficult to invoke it when WW1 starts (assuming it isn't butterflied away).

As say let say is too late, germany might not care about london treaty, maybe even ask to revoked it as belgium is not neutral anymore, the irony.

But yeah Leopold will be throw under the bus for this

 

[funnyhat]

Putting aside whether any other outside power would let this happen, does the Belgium of this era even have the military capability to defeat the Ottoman Empire so thoroughly?

No, they’d get killed. The Belgians would have to fight a long way just to get to Armenia from the Mediterranean coast where they would presumably disembark.

The Ottomans may be the « sick man of Europe » but they’re not THAT sick.

 

[Nivek]

No, they’d get killed. The Belgians would have to fight a long way just to get to Armenia from the Mediterranean coast where they would presumably disembark.

The Ottomans may be the « sick man of Europe » but they’re not THAT sick.

That is what i'm talking about, it will be a disaster both at home and in turkey, a mega disaster will put belgium a bad spot.

 

[Atterdag]

I love this as an idea, however crazy unrealistic it may be.

Let's make Leopoldian alphabet soup.

A is for Armenia
B is for Belgium
C is for Congo
D is for... you choose! Djibouti? Denmark? Delaware?

 

[AltoRegnant]

King Leopold II of Belgium told British Prime Minister Salisbury that he was prepared to send his Congolese Force Publique to "invade and occupy" Armenia, in response to the massacres of Armenians in 1895.

Ignoring literally everything else, Those are bold words from leopold the second of all people.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

According to Wikipedia, King Leopold II of Belgium told British Prime Minister Salisbury that he was prepared to send his Congolese Force Publique to "invade and occupy" Armenia, in response to the massacres of Armenians in 1895.

Needless to say, that did not end up happening. But what if it had?

I'm guessing Belgium might occupy the Six Armenian Vilayets, and also the Adana and Aleppo vilayets which had substantial Armenian populations too and the Trebizond vilayet due to its geographic proximity. Something like this map.

View attachment 475239

What might the consequences of this have been? I'm guessing it would speed up the decline of the Ottoman Empire, what with its Arabian territory now separated from the rest of the empire.

How would a Belgian Armenia be administered?

This is as likely as the Sikh Empire occupying British India of 1830s...

 

[jocay]

The Ottoman Empire promptly defeats Leopold's Congolese army before they have the chance to land in Armenia. In response the Ottomans send men to Tanzania and offer Tippu Tip money and advisors to bankroll a second Congo-Arab war. The Belgians are bloodied up but manage to keep the Ottoman-supported Arabs and Swahilis from completely overwhelming the eastern Congo. Throw in some native Congolese rebellions on the side. The Ottomans and their proxies in the Swahili Coast force the Belgians to the table and obtain some minor to significant territorial concessions. A great number of Armenians are allowed/encouraged to leave Ottoman lands and resettle in Belgium.

 

[Nephi]

That's a big Armenia, requires a lot of Turkish deaths to make it Armenian.

It also requires someone else getting involved that's too big for Belgium alone to bite off.

My guess is someone else gets involved for that.

If say Britain France and Russia, then Greece jumps in.

The latter they're not happy when the Russians annex Constantinople.

Britain and France divide the Arab areas into areas of influence but maybe not direct rule like after WW1 more of they have spheres of influence of a united (at least on maps) Arab state.

The Greeks and Bulgarians make substantial gains, the Turks are resentful and come back a few generations later.

 

[skarosianlifeform]

Belgium (or Leopold's private army) clearly, obviously, cannot defeat the Ottomans on the battlefield. And wouldn't try, either.

If Belgium or Leopold get Armenia, it can ONLY be after a crisis, as a compromise between Great Powers (preferring small and unaligned Belgium to get the region, rather than their big rival).

 

[Nivek]

The Ottoman Empire promptly defeats Leopold's Congolese army before they have the chance to land in Armenia. In response the Ottomans send men to Tanzania and offer Tippu Tip to bankroll a second Congo-Arab war. The Belgians are bloodied up but manage to keep the Ottoman-supported Arabs and Swahilis from overwhelming the eastern Congo. The Ottomans and their proxies in the Swahili Coast force the Belgians to the table and obtain some minor to significant territorial concessions. A great number of Armenians are allowed/encouraged to leave Ottoman lands and resettle in Belgium.

Nice