The Germans had initially hoped that the Belgians would be willling to do a deal in order to avoid war with Germany. If such an agreement is reached then Germany will not be delayed for weeks and so France will not have as much time as OTL to prepare. Britain will also have no pretext to enter the war and may be forced to watch on from the sidelines.
WI: Belgium grants military access to Germany in 1914
- Thread starter Emperor Palpatine
- Start date
I don't think there's much to discuss in the way of military operations. German forces will not have to fight in Belgium and will not have to face the BEF/British. France is guaranteed to fall in 1914, the rest of the Entente will have followed suit by 1916, and the Italians will likely not enter the war.
What is more interesting to discuss is just how the Germans got the Belgians to give them access to begin with. Allowing German forces to transit through Belgium is pretty much giving up the ghost of neutrality, and Belgium was-- as seen in 1870-- firmly committed to neutrality and unlikely to move from that position unless bribed.
Just what are the Germans willing to give away for access through Belgium?
What is more interesting to discuss is just how the Germans got the Belgians to give them access to begin with. Allowing German forces to transit through Belgium is pretty much giving up the ghost of neutrality, and Belgium was-- as seen in 1870-- firmly committed to neutrality and unlikely to move from that position unless bribed.
Just what are the Germans willing to give away for access through Belgium?
I maybe talking out of my butt here, but if I remember correctly wasn't Belgium more afraid of a French invasion than of a German one? Plus I think Germany offered some land concessions before they settled for an invasion.
I believe the primary concern for Belgian policy makers was that letting Germany march through unhindered meant the end of Belgium as an independent state. If Germany won there would be nothing to stop the Germans from deciding to extend their stay indefinitely. If Germany lost then Belgium was a at least a co-beligerrent in the war against France and Russia.
They'd never settle for something that less.I think they would be given some spoils of war from France,like the entirety of Nord-Pas de Calais,Gabon and French Congo.I think Britain might even be pleased with Dunkirk and Calais in Belgian rather than French hands.Britain and Germany would probably protect Belgium from potential French revanchism.
And what would protect Britain from German continental hegemony? Germany with Belgium as an ally is much more dangerous than France in control of the Scheldt and Antwerp, especially since France would now be a seriously broken power and Germany had tried to engage in a naval race with the UK (which it lost badly, but that's neither here nor there: it tried to challenge British supremacy and that's all that counts. Having extra harbours, the loaded gun pointed at Britain's heart, would be the massive beam that shatters the camel's back).
The BEF would intervene. Or at least it would try. Not because Germany had despoiled Belgium but because Belgium had revoked a 75 year old treaty that guaranteed its neutrality in exchange for recognition, a cornerstone of British foreign policy.
More importantly, from 1909 or 1911 onwards, the Belgian political and military establishment knew Germany would invade through Belgium. They did not try and negotiate for a smooth passage of the German forces. They were keen on keeping their neutrality and they reformed the military as a consequence because that neutrality was as much of a cornerstone of their foreign policy as it was for the British. It was, after all, the very reason for the existence of this kingdom.
Germany enters and they never leave. For Belgium it's that simple. They won't sign such a deal, no matter what they are given, because to sign such a deal would mean giving up their independence.
Going with the OP
If they did, then it probably means Germany wins WW1 by early 1915. France is cowed in 1914, they turn on Russia with their full military, Britain never gets serious with ground forces and does not see the point in being on the losing side, and gets the Russians to sue for peace.
If they did, then it probably means Germany wins WW1 by early 1915. France is cowed in 1914, they turn on Russia with their full military, Britain never gets serious with ground forces and does not see the point in being on the losing side, and gets the Russians to sue for peace.
What if the Belgians (and Luxembourgers) were pro-German (and anti-French) because they spoke a dialect of German?
What if Flemish (and Luxembourgish) evolved into dialects of German when they were under the Austrian Hapsburgs in the 18th Century?
The POD is 200 years too early, but it does increase the probability of a large chunk of the Belgian population supporting Germany and even wanting political union with the German Empire.
Belgium might have asked to join in 1871, but Bismarck would probably have said no as he didn't want to upset the British and it might have given the Second Reich a catholic majority.
If this happened a big chunk of the Belgian people of this timeline might still want union with Germany in 1914. Germany had become a much stronger nation than it was in 1871 and Kaiser Wilhelm has replaced Bismarck.
What if Flemish (and Luxembourgish) evolved into dialects of German when they were under the Austrian Hapsburgs in the 18th Century?
The POD is 200 years too early, but it does increase the probability of a large chunk of the Belgian population supporting Germany and even wanting political union with the German Empire.
Belgium might have asked to join in 1871, but Bismarck would probably have said no as he didn't want to upset the British and it might have given the Second Reich a catholic majority.
If this happened a big chunk of the Belgian people of this timeline might still want union with Germany in 1914. Germany had become a much stronger nation than it was in 1871 and Kaiser Wilhelm has replaced Bismarck.
I believe the industrial heartlands where most of the money was was in the Walloonish areas, while the capital had French forced upon it, and for the administration of their colony. I don't know if they would want to go against France for Flemish lands which would simply lower the power of the Francophonics, unless of course you tossed in the lands of Picardy nearby where they spoke Walloons... Of course their is one, major problem. Since beginning of the Napoleonic wars, Prussia would stab nearly every one of their allies in the back in order to seize their land. I do not think the Belgians, with one of the most valuable areas in Western Europe, would be very confident in the promises of Junkers. Might also be problems given the treatment of Catholic Poles and Germans in Upper Silesia and the Ruhr.
Come to think of it... It also makes no sense for Belgium and Luxembourg to have evolved into dialects of "German". They were not governments from Tyrol or Austria too much, having plenty of civil servants of their own, besides which the Austrians were of a different dialect from the Prussians. If anything, English would stand a better chance at having some influence in Flanders, given their close proximity. Not by much of course, since English was rather divergent from the dialects the Flemings, Dutch, and Rhinelanders spoke.
Welcome to insane Troll Logic 101:
The UK is guaranteed to enforce Belgian Neutrality.
By allowing German Forces entry to Belgium to aid the war was France, Belgium has violated it's own Neutrality.
This, the UK declares war on Belgium, to guarantee Belgian Neutrality.
The UK is guaranteed to enforce Belgian Neutrality.
By allowing German Forces entry to Belgium to aid the war was France, Belgium has violated it's own Neutrality.
This, the UK declares war on Belgium, to guarantee Belgian Neutrality.
I remember an older thread about this, where the OP argued that the decision by the Belgian government to not allow German access was based, in part or in whole, on completely false assessments of military strength made by some leading general (he may have even done it on purpose IIRC). Can't seem to find the thread though...
This is not insane Troll logic. Britain didn't guarantee Belgian neutrality out of any love for Belgium but to protect its own interests. If Belgium voluntarily allowed Germany unhindered transit to invade France, Belgium has in effect joined the Central Powers and is now an enemy of Britain and France. Britain would intervene in WW1 just as they did OTL. And Belgium would suffer the consequences if the Entente won the war..certainly loss of the Congo and possibly French annexation of French speaking areas. Maybe the Netherlands is granted the rest as a reward for staying neutral.
MrP
Banned
This, basically. If Belgium allowed German forces to use its territory as an invasion route, it would become at best a satellite state of Germany, and at worst a second Schleswig-Holstein.