WI: Bayh wins in 2008?

Gorrister

Gorrister

In 2007, then Senator from Indiana Evan Bayh ran for President, however, he soon had to quit due to abysmal polling, and Endorsed Hillary Clinton.

Now let's say for clarity that Clinton doesn't run, and Bayh becomes the Establishment poster boy, Obama fails to have a surge in Iowa somehow, does worse than OTL. Bayh manages to win the Nomination, who does he slot for veep? What impact does this have on the Republican Primaries? How would the Election go with Bayh? And how would an Evan Bayh Presidency go?

Honestly, here's my map:

genusmap.php


Senator Evan Bayh/Senator Barack Obama: 361 EV, 51%
Fmr. Governor Mitt Romney/Senator Sam Brownback: 177 EV, 46%
 
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starwarsfan

Hmm, this is interesting

if economy still crashes, Romney should do abysmal Dems will do the same as 2012 except now we have Romney quotes like "I like firing people" while teh economy implodes.

Bayh may be able to pull in more blue dog democrats voting for him as he was quite moderate

Also the Tea Party may not come to be
 
Andrew T

Andrew T

It's hard to imagine Bayh getting the nomination in 2008 because -- as we saw IOTL -- all of the energy in the Democratic primary was coming from the anti-Bush left. But you could probably make it happen with something like Edwards winning Iowa, Obama dropping out to endorse Edwards, and then the Rielle Hunter scandal breaking when no one was left standing except Bayh.

But in that scenario, the left would be livid at being stuck with a nominee who's to the right of Joe Lieberman. Bayh, of course, voted for the war in Iraq, for the Patriot Act, for the Bush tax cuts, and for No Child Left Behind. (So did John Kerry. The 2000s were not exactly a showcase of profiles in courage for Senate Democrats.)

That's going to cause enough of a backlash that Bayh would definitely have to pick someone from the left as his running mate; that's manifestly not Claire McCaskill (who has managed to endear herself to the left over the past six years, but still has a pretty moderate voting record). To be honest, the best VP pick here is probably Obama.

Also -- and I realize this seems weird because it's his home state -- I don't think Bayh would have done as well as Obama in either Indiana or NE-2; those wins really were a function of the Obama '08 machine.

No McCaskill probably means Missouri goes Republican as well.
 
DTanza

DTanza

Banned
Romney would have been an abysmal candidate for the GOP in 2008, with the financial crisis. McCain partially got away with being rich because of his status as a an American war hero, but he still got hit with a fair amount of flak for it. Romney is going to be absolutely eviscerated over Bain Capital and his general disconnect with anyone who makes under 500,000 a year.

Evan Bayh is going to have one massive boost. He's white, and incredibly so. If he can excite the base with VP Obama, get an advantage by virtue of melanin levels in his skin, and with Romney as his opponent?

He'll pick up every state that Obama did plus Missouri and Montana. The question is, who the hell do the Republicans run in 2012? Brownback? Pawlenty? Perry?
 

terrellk

Andrew T said:
Also -- and I realize this seems weird because it's his home state -- I don't think Bayh would have done as well as Obama in either Indiana or NE-2; those wins really were a function of the Obama '08 machine.
Click to expand...

I don't know about Nebraska, but I think a Bayh candidacy would win Indiana. The man outpaced George Bush there in 2004, I think he could win his home state in just about any set of circumstances where he's on the top of the ticket, let alone 2008.

I can't see Bayh picking McCaskill. It seems to me that Obama would be a very likely choice (from the left wing of the party, black, charismatic; so the exact opposite of Bayh). If Bayh wanted to make history without becoming the second fiddle on his own ticket, he could always pick someone like Sebelius or Napolitano. There's always Russ Feingold, too. Brian Schweitzer might not be a bad choice, and Joe Biden would work just as well for Bayh as he did for Obama. Of course, Bayh might look for a military vet if McCain gets the nomination, but I don't know who that might be. A lot of it might depend on how the primaries shake out and who he owes for getting him the victory, too.
 
Gorrister

Gorrister

Yeah, I just realised that McCaskill woudln't be a bright pick, Bayh/Obama or Bayh/Feingold would be tickets to beat, even before the crash.
 
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