WI: Bavarians win the Battle of Pressburg

Hello everybody. I was wondering about your thoughts on the effects of a Bavarian victory at the Battle of Pressburg over the Hungarians under Grand Prince Árpád.

First I’ll state my idea of how this could happen. Now, I understand that the EXACT location of the battle is still under debate, but for the sake of the POD we’ll say it is in the vicinity of Pressburg as its name, Brezaulaspurc would suggest. This is important because Pressburg is situated along the Danube River.

What I would expect to happen is Árpád makes an effort to cross the Danube with his horse archers, but during the crossing, Luitpold attacks the Hungarians in the river and destroys them, killing Árpád in the process.

I believe the effects of such a victory would be astounding. Rather than small defeats like Inn in 1913 or Riade in 933 (ok, not a SMALL defeat, but the Magyars were not fully brought under heel), this would be a major defeat on the level of the Lechfeld in 955.

I see little reason for Luitpold not to push on and recapture the March of Pannonia (he lost the Avar March, aka Austria to the Magyars in OTL after losing, this does not happen here) from Hungary, expelling the nomads from the Carpathian Basin; where to, I am unsure, perhaps they could merely disappear into thin air.

Now, from what I’ve gathered, Luitpold was one of the most powerful men in Germany before the Battle of Pressburg, and after a victory over the Magyars with him subsequently expelling them to oblivion, he would probably be the most powerful of all. Considering his son would gain the title a few years after his father’s death, I can definitely see Luitpold being named Duke of Bavaria in the aftermath of such a decisive victory. Furthermore, as the Hungarians have been expelled, the German colonization of Austria almost certainly carries on to the Carpathian Basin as well.

Possibly the biggest change would come with the death of Louis the Child in 911. As we know, in history this would be the first time a non-Carolingian took power in the Carolingian lands, when Conrad of Franconia took the German throne as Conrad I of Germany. In an alternate world where Luitpold is Germany’s most prominent figure, we could potentially see him elected instead. Using the backbone of his territories in Bavaria, as well as potential allies in Swabia (his son definitely had Swabian allies in his wars against the Hungarians, his father may also have had them, but we just didn’t know), he manages to further consolidate royal power in Germany. I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes off on any military campaigns perhaps to Jutland or Poland to subjugate the regions and Germanize and Christianize them for the prestige of spreading the faith. He could also plan to reestablish Croatia’s vassalship to Germany as well.

Now, as the most devoted fans of the early HRE would know, around the time he died, Henry the Fowler was planning an Italian campaign to crown himself Holy Roman Emperor, but he caught a disease if I remember correctly and died, and the title would stay vacant until his son’s own campaign. I could foresee Luitpold, or if he dies as Henry had, Arnulf leading campaigns into Italy to conquer Rome and gain the imperial title, maybe eventually even integrating Venice and Southern Italy as Otto II had planned and very nearly succeeded in.

Another possible change could be the status of West Francia in the event of East Francia’s successes. War broke out in the area at the beginning of Otto’s reign and it eventually resulted in the complete collapse of Carolingian royal power under Louis IV in favor of the Robertians under Hugh the Great, Count of Paris. If the same war breaks out during Arnulf’s reign, the much more powerful Bavarians could have an easier time taking over in West Francia then the Saxons, and I feel they have a good chance of taking Laon and then moving on to either defeat Hugh the Great if he resists their night or receive his submission. I would also imagine that Burgundy would fall under German hands at some point in this alternate world.

Hope this isn’t too much of a German wank :) thoughts?
 
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I really don't know about campaigns in Poland and Jutland, but I'm definitely sure about the Italian ones.
The only thing I'm skeptical about is the Hungarians being completely pushed out of Pannonia, but this is 'cause I don't know much about the period.
So the only thing I'd bet on is a Bavarian expansion towards Northeastern Italy perhaps this causes a larger German speaking community (Extended to Cortina for sure. To Carnia too?).
 
Perhaps Germanic K. Of Pannonia once it inevitably splinters from Bavaria due to succession? That would be interesting.
 
I really don't know about campaigns in Poland and Jutland, but I'm definitely sure about the Italian ones.
The only thing I'm skeptical about is the Hungarians being completely pushed out of Pannonia, but this is 'cause I don't know much about the period.
So the only thing I'd bet on is a Bavarian expansion towards Northeastern Italy perhaps this causes a larger German speaking community (Extended to Cortina for sure. To Carnia too?).
Well the Hungarians were only an extremely new arrival to Pannonia, and although they were familiar with the region due to having served there as mercenaries for years, they had been settled in the area for not much more than a decade during the Battle of Pressburg. Their situation was also probably pretty tenuous considering the reason they left Etelköz to settle in Pannonia was because they had been disastrously defeated by the Bulgarians in the Battle of Southern Buh in 896. Due to their presumably tenuous hold on Pannonia as well as the effects the loss of their army would have (I mean, Árpád would be an idiot not to bring his full force against the Bavarians if he’s outnumbered 3:1, right?) on the Magyars, a martial people, I would find it to be quite unsurprising for the nomads to be pushed out of Europe forever. Whether they are replaced eventually by another group that settles in Hungary, I am unsure however.
 
Perhaps Germanic K. Of Pannonia once it inevitably splinters from Bavaria due to succession? That would be interesting.
It’s possible, but Bavaria was the center of power and population in the South of Germany. The only way I could conceivably see this happening is if Bavaria manages to lose power in Germany, and to prevent it from rising again, it is split up, sort of like what happened in OTL when it lost the Duchy of Carinthia in 976 and then the March of Austria in 1156.
 
I really don't know about campaigns in Poland and Jutland, but I'm definitely sure about the Italian ones.
The only thing I'm skeptical about is the Hungarians being completely pushed out of Pannonia, but this is 'cause I don't know much about the period.
So the only thing I'd bet on is a Bavarian expansion towards Northeastern Italy perhaps this causes a larger German speaking community (Extended to Cortina for sure. To Carnia too?).
Perhaps with Jutland and Poland, the Emperor could delegate those campaigns to the Dukes of Saxony, as they were the closest to those regions and had the most to gain from them, as well as to prove their loyalty to the German kingdom as they were the Saxons, the Pagan resistors of Charlemagne, and they would be proving their loyalty to the Lord by Christianizing the Pagan people’s of the region, as their grievances with Charlemagne were still taken pretty seriously by the Saxons in this time.
 
It’s possible, but Bavaria was the center of power and population in the South of Germany. The only way I could conceivably see this happening is if Bavaria manages to lose power in Germany, and to prevent it from rising again, it is split up, sort of like what happened in OTL when it lost the Duchy of Carinthia in 976 and then the March of Austria in 1156.

I can admit my knowledge of the HRE at this time is severely wanting but I thought the inheritance at the time more or forced the split up of large demesnes amongst sons? That’s where I was going with it, not really a need to destroy Bavarian/Imperial power but more of a need to provide equally to the sons.
 
I can admit my knowledge of the HRE at this time is severely wanting but I thought the inheritance at the time more or forced the split up of large demesnes amongst sons? That’s where I was going with it, not really a need to destroy Bavarian/Imperial power but more of a need to provide equally to the sons.
That was mostly with the Carolingians and occasionally with some German states like Saxony-Thuringia under the House of Wettin or Bavaria under the House of Wittelsbach (same German state in this case, but a different dynasty). During this period the frontier provinces could be delegated to marcher lords as buffers between Germany and the unsettled East, but there was never a case where a second son had a duchy of his own split off from a frontier state that pledged itself to a stem duke. That would come later following the fracturing of the Empire.

And besides, who would even want to rule in the frontier, unless they were one of the lower nobles without much opportunity back home? A second son would probably be a lot better off trying to remain in Germany and getting involved in power politics there, to gain power in the Kingdom and possibly being able to start a civil war for the throne than being relegated off to some frontier state that's probably often going to be under attack by guys like the Cumans and Pechenegs. If a second son was going to get his own duchy, it would probably be another stem duchy that gets ceded to him by either his father or his brother. Ruling the frontier was just not worth it for a man of such high birth.
 
Oh okay that makes sense and enlightening over all. I’m already to figure what a base map would look like of it ha

Speaking of marcher lords that does bring to mind the Szeklers and what fate is for them in this situation. Historically due to their alliance with the Magyars they filled a niche as border guards. Their loyalty was more or less bought with local autonom. Would they be remaining but just become a heavily germanized ethnic group within this massive HRE or banished to the steppes with the Magyars?

As for adding Jutland and Poland the make up of this empire is going to be interesting. It seems destined to become dysfunctional one way or another ha
 
Oh okay that makes sense and enlightening over all. I’m already to figure what a base map would look like of it ha

Speaking of marcher lords that does bring to mind the Szeklers and what fate is for them in this situation. Historically due to their alliance with the Magyars they filled a niche as border guards. Their loyalty was more or less bought with local autonom. Would they be remaining but just become a heavily germanized ethnic group within this massive HRE or banished to the steppes with the Magyars?

As for adding Jutland and Poland the make up of this empire is going to be interesting. It seems destined to become dysfunctional one way or another ha
From what I know, the Székely had arrived with the Hungarians to the Carpathian Basin, yet considering their location of settlement, in Transylvania, I could actually foresee them continuing their existence.

You see, the Kingdom of Germany extended its power to the West Bank of the Danube; as in, not into Transylvania. This was controlled instead by the Bulgarian Empire, who had that land to the Hungarians. In a world where the Magyars are expelled by the Teutons, the Bulgarians, seeing as they are led by the great expansionist King Simeon the Great, may seek to reconquer the territory. Here, I could foresee either the Bulgarians allowing the Székely to remain as border guards against the continuing German eastward advance, or expelling them for total direct control. After this, two things could happen: the Germans eventually do push to the Carpathian Mountains, and integrate or expel the Székely, or they fail and a border is set at the Danube.

Or a third option. If Luitpold is crowned Holy Roman Emperor by the Pope in Rome, I could foresee a German-Bulgarian Alliance. You see, the Byzantines weren’t really big fans of these “uncultured barbarians” claiming what they considered as their title. The Teutons would seek to rectify this slight. Thus, an agreement is made between the Kaiser and Czar where the Germans take Sardinia-Corsica, Southern Italy, Sicily, Croatia, and potentially the Ionian Islands (probably to be ruled by the Venetians, now an Imperial state), while the Bulgars are given Serbia, Macedonia, Thrace, and Southern Greece. Who will get Constantinople, or if it manages to hold out with its fantastic walls, I am unsure of. Nonetheless, the Byzantines are crushed and Simeon and Luitpold are the dominators of Europe. This likely leads to conflict eventually, but hey, I’ll address that if I ever decide to write a TL about this.

Anyway, enough about the Balkans. You also asked about Jutland and the Vistula Basin. As both regions were still rather tribal during this period, I wouldn’t be surprised if they are assimilated into the German-speaking world with the rest of the Empire through colonization by the Saxons.

Lastly, I would also expect that the German language unifies much more quickly in this scenario, and a written standard based on the Bavarian and Alemannic varieties comes to be the primary language of culture and literature within the empire.
 
Yeah the Székelys history is very vague where they claim they’ve been there since before Magyar migration and some where also they migrated with the Magyar.

It actually would be an interesting divergence where the Bulgarian employing the Székely in Transylvania allows to develop their own nation there instead of being confined to OTL. Székely Land.

I’m not sure if it’s a HRE wank or a screw haha, mostly due to how big it’ll be it would be seen to super dysfunctional with the Moore being so spread out, unless the Emperor is maintaining the tradition of moving the court throughout the Empire.

The Byzantines without the Balkans and their seemingly endless supply of manpower may just focus on the Middle East or scheme to destabilize the Bulgarian state in order to regain territory.
 
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I’m not sure if it’s a HRE wank or a screw haha, mostly due to how big it’ll be it would be seen to super dysfunctional with the Moore being so spread out, unless the Emperor is maintaining the tradition of moving the court throughout the Empire.

The Byzantines without the Balkans and their seemingly endless supply of manpower may just focus on the Middle East or scheme to destabilize the Bulgarian state in order to regain territory.
Well, my idea is that the Holy Roman Empire also centralizes under the Bavarians, sort of an equivalent to what Emperor Henry VI attempted in the 1190s before he died. Basically, control is centered around the Luitpoldings and a state akin to the Ancien Regime is established in the Empire, becoming probably the second most powerful country in the entire world next to Song China.
 

krieger

Banned
Hello everybody. I was wondering about your thoughts on the effects of a Bavarian victory at the Battle of Pressburg over the Hungarians under Grand Prince Árpád.

First I’ll state my idea of how this could happen. Now, I understand that the EXACT location of the battle is still under debate, but for the sake of the POD we’ll say it is in the vicinity of Pressburg as its name would suggest. This is important because Pressburg is situated along the Danube River.

What I would expect to happen is Árpád makes an effort to cross the Danube with his horse archers, but during the crossing, Luitpold attacks the Hungarians in the river and destroys them, killing Árpád in the process.

I believe the effects of such a victory would be astounding. Rather than small defeats like Inn in 1913 or Riade in 933 (ok, not a SMALL defeat, but the Magyars were not fully brought under heel), this would be a major defeat on the level of the Lechfeld in 955.

I see little reason for Luitpold not to push on and recapture the Avar March and March of Pannonia from Hungary, expelling the nomads from the Carpathian Basin; where to, I am unsure, perhaps they could merely disappear into thin air.

Now, from what I’ve gathered, Luitpold was one of the most powerful men in Germany before the Battle of Pressburg, and after a victory over the Magyars with him subsequently expelling them to oblivion, he would probably be the most powerful of all. Considering his son would gain the title a few years after his father’s death, I can definitely see Luitpold being named Duke of Bavaria in the aftermath of such a decisive victory. Furthermore, as the Hungarians have been expelled, the German colonization of Austria almost certainly carries on to the Carpathian Basin as well.

Possibly the biggest change would come with the death of Louis the Child in 911. As we know, in history this would be the first time a non-Carolingian took power in the Carolingian lands, when Conrad of Franconia took the German throne as Conrad I of Germany. In an alternate world where Luitpold is Germany’s most prominent figure, we could potentially see him elected instead. Using the backbone of his territories in Bavaria, as well as potential allies in Swabia (his son definitely had Swabian allies in his wars against the Hungarians, his father may also have had them, but we just didn’t know), he manages to further consolidate royal power in Germany. I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes off on any military campaigns perhaps to Jutland or Poland to subjugate the regions and Germanize and Christianize them for the prestige of spreading the faith. He could also plan to reestablish Croatia’s vassalship to Germany as well.

Now, as the most devoted fans of the early HRE would know, around the time he died, Henry the Fowler was planning an Italian campaign to crown himself Holy Roman Emperor, but he caught a disease if I remember correctly and died, and the title would stay vacant until his son’s own campaign. I could foresee Luitpold, or if he dies as Henry had, Arnulf leading campaigns into Italy to conquer Rome and gain the imperial title, maybe eventually even integrating Venice and Southern Italy as Otto II had planned and very nearly succeeded in.

Another possible change could be the status of West Francia in the event of East Francia’s successes. War broke out in the area at the beginning of Otto’s reign and it eventually resulted in the complete collapse of Carolingian royal power under Louis IV in favor of the Robertians under Hugh the Great, Count of Paris. If the same war breaks out during Arnulf’s reign, the much more powerful Bavarians could have an easier time taking over in West Francia then the Saxons, and I feel they have a good chance of taking Laon and then moving on to either defeat Hugh the Great if he resists their night or receive his submission. I would also imagine that Burgundy would fall under German hands at some point in this alternate world.

Hope this isn’t too much of a German wank :) thoughts?

Germans weren't present even east of Elbe at that point, so in what miraculous way they could extend their influence as far as Poland if they didn't fully defeat Elbe Slavs since XIIth century OTL (and still many Slavs were present at the terrains conquered by Germans up to XVIIth century even)? IMHO the most wank scenario at that point is making future Poland a Bohemian-esque vassal of German crown (and even this is doubtful). But we could see the re-establishment of a Margravate of Pannonia, given to the second son of Luitpold, Berthold. Croatia is a little doubtful, these guys didn't need German overlordship.
 
Germans weren't present even east of Elbe at that point, so in what miraculous way they could extend their influence as far as Poland if they didn't fully defeat Elbe Slavs since XIIth century OTL (and still many Slavs were present at the terrains conquered by Germans up to XVIIth century even)? IMHO the most wank scenario at that point is making future Poland a Bohemian-esque vassal of German crown (and even this is doubtful). But we could see the re-establishment of a Margravate of Pannonia, given to the second son of Luitpold, Berthold. Croatia is a little doubtful, these guys didn't need German overlordship.
I guess I didn’t mention that this assumes that the Ottonians, inspired by the rapid rise of the Luitpoldings, begin to invest heavily in the colonization of the east in order to expand their power as much as possible. I believe a conquest of Jutland and assimilation of the Elbean Slavs would be rather quick under this new Northern focused Ottonian dynasty, while I will admit Poland would take longer.

Also, I noted in an earlier post that Pannonia was unlikely to be split off to a second son. Berthold would have much better luck profiting off the spoils of an invasion of Italy as I had mentioned earlier, perhaps securing for himself control of the Margraviate of Tuscany.
 
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krieger

Banned
I guess I didn’t mention that this assumes that the Ottonians, inspired by the rapid rise of the Luitpoldings, begin to invest heavily in the colonization of the east in order to expand their power as much as possible. I believe a conquest of Jutland and assimilation of the Elbean Slavs would be rather quick under this new Northern focused Ottonian dynasty, while I will admit Poland would take longer.

Also, I noted in an earlier post that Pannonia was unlikely to be split off to a second son. Berthold would have much better luck profiting off the spoils of an invasion of Italy as I had mentioned earlier, perhaps securing for himself control of the Margraviate of Tuscany.
But it would require assumption that Luitpoldings would let Ottonians do so, which is doubtful. German kings didn't want too strong dukes of Saxony, because they would create an opposition against them (and they even helped some Slavs in order to stop Saxon rise, see how Duchy of Macklenburg was created and who was ancestor of its rulers).
 
But it would require assumption that Luitpoldings would let Ottonians do so, which is doubtful. German kings didn't want too strong dukes of Saxony, because they would create an opposition against them (and they even helped some Slavs in order to stop Saxon rise, see how Duchy of Macklenburg was created and who was ancestor of its rulers).
A marriage alliance between the North and South then, perhaps? It would serve as protection for either from the other as well as potentially (with the right offspring) serving as an opportunity for one of the family’s to hijack control of the other’s duchy. And yes I do know about the Mecklenburger rulers, I’m also pretty sure the Gryf dynasty of Pomerania was a family of Germanized Slavs as well.
 

krieger

Banned
A marriage alliance between the North and South then, perhaps? It would serve as protection for either from the other as well as potentially (with the right offspring) serving as an opportunity for one of the family’s to hijack control of the other’s duchy. And yes I do know about the Mecklenburger rulers, I’m also pretty sure the Gryf dynasty of Pomerania was a family of Germanized Slavs as well.

The thing is, no one from sons of Luitpold isn't at age to marry one of Henry the Fowler's child, so such an alliance is impossible. In addition, the succesion matter after Fowler's dead wasn't clear and Fowler while not being a king, wouldn't be able to legally disinherit Thankmar, his eldest son born from first marriage. This would provide a source of instability in Saxony, but also an opportunity for King to bring Saxons under his heel. From Bavarian POV the most valuable gains in the "East" are in Carpathian Basin/Balkans, and German expansion would be targeted there. Saxon expansion against Elbean Slavs would be curbed. Luitpold would rather concetrate on securing Italy for his eldest son (his son's wife had a vague right to the Iron Crown, and Luitpold's grandson, Eberhard was called by Italians themselves to reign over them, assuming the whole marriage thing goes similar to the OTL).
 
The thing is, no one from sons of Luitpold isn't at age to marry one of Henry the Fowler's child, so such an alliance is impossible. In addition, the succesion matter after Fowler's dead wasn't clear and Fowler while not being a king, wouldn't be able to legally disinherit Thankmar, his eldest son born from first marriage. This would provide a source of instability in Saxony, but also an opportunity for King to bring Saxons under his heel. From Bavarian POV the most valuable gains in the "East" are in Carpathian Basin/Balkans, and German expansion would be targeted there. Saxon expansion against Elbean Slavs would be curbed. Luitpold would rather concetrate on securing Italy for his eldest son (his son's wife had a vague right to the Iron Crown, and Luitpold's grandson, Eberhard was called by Italians themselves to reign over them, assuming the whole marriage thing goes similar to the OTL).
I would actually say you're wrong about that. Berthold, Luitpold's second son was born circa 900, and Henry the Fowler's daughter Hedwig was born circa 910. There's a good amount of marriages in these days that were between people of age gaps like this, as one example, Empress Matilda was about 20 years younger than Henry V when she married him.

The question now is what happens after such a marriage.
 
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