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Grant's undetected mid-June 1864 maneuver over the James River after Cold Harbor I feel was the beginning of the end for the Confederacy in the East. Over the following nine months, Lee's greatest fear was realized in the form of the attritional Siege of Petersburg.
It was accomplished by distracting Lee and leaving him devoid of cavalry through sending Sheridan north (Battle of Trevilian Station).
Assume that the POD occurs if the Confederates decide to send reconnaissance that does indeed discover the AotP at a very vulnerable moment.
How would a major Confederate victory here affect the War?