WI: Battle of the Coral Sea a complete Japanese victory

What if the Japanese inflict more casualties on the Americans during the Battle of the Coral Sea? (by that I mean sink more of the carrier force) Would the invasion of Port Moresby go on? How would it affect the rest of the war?
 
Even if the Japanese win and sink both American carriers. There is significant land based air at Port Moresby and Northern Australia. The Japanese will have had to lose a significant number of aircraft in sinking both carriers.

What then a landing against Port Moresby. There were several Australian battalions and 100 P39s at Port Moresby plus whatever air powqer was in North Australia.

Likely the landing is a big fiasco that fails.

But thats a good thing for the Japanese if they cease offensive operations thereafter and don't do Midway. Their naval power is still intact.

The Americans couldn't try anything before October 43 with the arrival of the Essex class carriers. Much less Japanese airpower wasted in the Solomons rat hole in the meantime.
 
They probably still try the invasion but as stated, with Hara's air groups badly beat up and one of his decks probably still badly damaged he is hard pressed to provide air cover to the invasion.

There is also the question of Allied surface forces. Crace's TF-44 as well as Fletcher and Fitch's escorts (that no longer have to worry about protecting carriers). Do they retreat or are they ordered north to protect Port Moresby?

The Japanese probably still try Midway because they are confident they killed two US carriers at Coral Sea and none of the OTL Coral Sea forces were important at Midway.

Nimitz probably still commits TF-16 and he may try harder to get SARA to Hawaii in time. You also have a good chunk of SARA's OTL air group sitting around in Hawaii (most of them actually went to sea with Y-TOWN for Midway). Some of them will be retained for SARA when she arrives but some may go to Midway meaning Midway has a better trained air group.
 
If Nimitz didn't bother sending better air units to Midway with 3 carriers, he's unlikely to do so with 2 carriers.

Most direct way for Hara to sink two carriers is to connect on May 7th with his large strike to Neosho, redirected onto Fletcher.
 
If Nimitz didn't bother sending better air units to Midway with 3 carriers, he's unlikely to do so with 2 carriers.

Most direct way for Hara to sink two carriers is to connect on May 7th with his large strike to Neosho, redirected onto Fletcher.

Not necessarily. If YORKTOWN is sunk and SARA cannot get to Hawaii in time, he may not leave CAG-3 sitting around Oahu doing nothing.
 
They probably still try the invasion but as stated, with Hara's air groups badly beat up and one of his decks probably still badly damaged he is hard pressed to provide air cover to the invasion...
Nimitz probably still commits TF-16 and he may try harder to get SARA to Hawaii in time. You also have a good chunk of SARA's OTL air group sitting around in Hawaii (most of them actually went to sea with Y-TOWN for Midway). Some of them will be retained for SARA when she arrives but some may go to Midway meaning Midway has a better trained air group.

You gotta love pro-axis PODs that result in the Axis losing the war a year sooner :D!
 
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