WI: Battle of Sviyazhsk - Trotsky captured in 1918

Currently, I'm reading a book on russian civil war: Histoire de la guerre civile russe, 1917-1922 by jean-Jacques Marie.
That book doesn't look like an academical study but more like a story of the civil war with various anecdots and testimony from various characters, such as Wrangel, Denikine, Trotsky, Iakovlev, ... As far as I've read it, 150 pages over 400 and I'm only at late 1918, it seems rather complete, telling as much the race to Baku between English and German forces, the brutality of German occupation of Ukraine, the beginning of Makhno, events in Finland, Murmansk, Arkhangelsk... and moreover, it's not boring at all and the picture of the civil war is a clear one.

I made that presentation on the book to introduce you on a chapter that brought my attention, my mind being always looking for PODs. In a chapter over what the author refers to as the Russian Valmy, he tells how Trotsky in August 1918 was almost captured, an event that could have been fatal to the Bolsheviks.

Although the author doesn't say the exact day, it seems to take place in late august 1918, some time after the uprisings of Izhevsk and the events at Votkinsk, but before the reconquest of Kazan. The events are told by Arkady Rosengolts, at least for the second raid.
Trotsky arrives with his personal train at the headquarters of the 5th army to prepare for the reconquest of Kazan, and his locomotive goes away due to apparent technical problems, never to be seen again.
But the Whites launch a surprise great flanking attack, taking the railway station of Chikrana, close to Sviyazhsk, in order to take a bridge over the Volga. Trotsky and the 5th army headquarters are lightly defended and at the mercy of these attackers. While soldiers begin to flee, Trotsky goes up to arm servants and cooks (Rosengolts may be dramatizing a bit) and finally repulse the attack.
Two days later, a commando led by Kappel and equipped with important artillery comes close to Trotsky headquarters by 10 km, but seemingly unsure about Red forces, holds back his forces. Kappel routs a hastily led counterattack by Red troops but doesn't pursue. Rosengolts said that had Kappel pushed the attack, defenders which numbered only a few dozens, would have been overrun.

Kazan1918_08_eng.jpg


The author follows this anecdot by another on the near capture of Wrangel by Red Cosacks one or two months later in Caucasus, but I think he may be right in assuming that Trotsky capture by Kappel would have been a fatal blow for Bolsheviks. 5th army would have likely collapsed and dispersed, then Czechoslovak and Komuch's army would have followed up to Nizhny Novgorod and then on to Moscow.

I don't think civil war would be over, but the Communists would.
We are months before Kolchak coup, the Volunteer army is still fighting in Kuban and north Caucasus, and Germans still occupy Ukraine and baltic countries. Allies breakout on the Salonika is a few weeks ahead, but has not yet happened.
SRs have already denounced the peace with Germany and were somewhat supported by the Entente forces, but were not much friends with Denikine Volunteers Army, Denikine who was opposed to Germans (but doesn't say no to the part of German weapons and munitions Krasnov sell him).
Also, Yudenich and Count Keller were seemingly in negociations with Germans to raise an army to take Petrograd.

EDIT: I found this link to a excerpt from what seems to be Trotsky autobiography, one about Sviyazhsk.
 
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I found this in Trotsky excerpt:

On the twenty-eighth of August, the Whites launched an outflanking movement. Colonel Kappel, later a celebrated White general, penetrated to our rear under cover of darkness, with a strong detachment behind him, and seized a small railway station, destroyed the tracks, and cut down the telegraph-poles. When he had cut off our retreat in this way, he advanced to attack Sviyazhsk. If I am not mistaken, Kappel’s staff included Savinkov. This move caught us quite off our guard. We were afraid to disrupt the already shaky front, and so we withdrew only two or three companies. The commander of my train again mobilized every one he could lay his hands on, both in the train and at the station, including even the cook. We had a good stock of rifles, machine-guns and hand-grenades. The train crew was made up of good fighters. The men took their posts about a verst from the train. The battle went on for about eight hours, and both sides had losses. Finally, after they had spent themselves, the enemy withdrew. Meanwhile the break in the connection with Sviyazhsk had stirred up Moscow and the whole line. Small units were rushed to our relief. The line was quickly repaired; fresh detachments poured into the army. At that time, the Kazan papers were reporting that I had been cut off, taken prisoner, killed, had flown away in an airplane – but that my dog was captured as a trophy. This faithful animal later was captured on all the civil-war fronts. In most cases, it was a chocolate-colored dog, but sometimes a Saint Bernard. I got off all the cheaper because I never had any dog.
 
Like I said, we are not far from the end of WWI.

With the Reds out, I don't think there would be much incentive for Allies to supply the Volunteers army.
I would see Chernov and SRs returning in power on the ground of the legitimacy from the Constituent Assembly (ie Komuch in the first time and PSG).
Czechoslovak legion would be evacuated through Petrograd instead of Vladivostok.
I expect Whites from the Volunteers army would put up some fight instead of submitting to the new government and pushing into the Don bassin and southern Ukraine in the wake of German withdrawal, and maybe the lower Volga (Tsaritsyne) but would eventually pushed back and defeated by SRs once they would have set up a functioning government.
There would also be some resistance from the Basmachi in Turkestan and Cossacks of Semyonov in Baikal.

After the capture of Moscow and Petrograd by the Komuch army and the Czechoslovaks, I think most of regional Red forces would switch to SR allegiance, minus some diehards.
 
Trotsky was also really close of being captured in Narva, Estonia, on 18th of January 1919 when the Finnish volunteer unit stormed the city after they had conducted an amphibious landing to the rear of the Soviet 6th Division with the support of Royal Navy ships.
 
Well it would have been a significant blow as Trotsky was the head of the Russian army but its fatality to the Bolsheviks would depend on at what point were the Bolsheviks winning and if any co-operation between the White could have been forged as the lack of that made Trotsky's job much easier.
 
Until the recapture of Kazan, the Reds were suffering defeat after defeat.
In this atmosphere, Trotsky capture would have certainly be fatal.
 
Until the recapture of Kazan, the Reds were suffering defeat after defeat.
In this atmosphere, Trotsky capture would have certainly be fatal.

I guess its then a question of how the SR would behave.

I think the land reforms are a grantee and the setting up of a parliament as well but the industrial question I think will be an interesting one and the economic situation as a whole as well. Edit Like would American corporations invest in Russia and build factories?

Edit Also I wonder how the would handle the independence demands of each group (Ukraine vs Georgia)
 
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