WI: Battle of Ridgeway 1866

[Reydan]

Having read a little bit about the Fenian Raids on Canada in the aftermath of the Civil War, I'm intrigued by knowing what the board thinks about the potential alt-history outcomes here.

Given that Canadian casualties could have been a lot higher at Ridgeway, as the Fenians never had a chance to draw the inexperienced and raw Canadians onto their dug-in positions as they planned, I'm interested what a much bloodier defeat would have entailed?

I think it seems very unlikely for the Fenians to conquer Canada, but does a crushing defeat for Canada at Ridgeway cause more of a panic? Swell Fenian ranks and make them a bigger threat? Does Washington need to act to rein them in? Does news of this defeat risk London overreacting in response? Say that, instead of an ignominious rout caused by confusion in Canadian ranks, the Canadians are repulsed as they attack Fenian positions and lose c500-600 killed, wounded and captured at the hands of the veteran Fenians.

As I say, I'm not expecting anyone's answer to be "Fenian conquest of Canada" but I am interested in what people think might have happened next.

 

[raharris1973]

...an interesting mess...

 

[raharris1973]

A possible sequence of events -

British North America / Canada after facing this surprisingly successful Fenian coup issues demands to the U.S. to disavow and cut off the Fenians.

The US government does cut off the Fenians, but its unpopular (could this effect the anti-Johnson impeachment process, or hand victory to Horatio Seymour in 1868 on the back of mobilized Irish-American support?)

British North America / Canada gets reinforced and inevitably stamps out the Fenians occupying positions in Canada.

Canada thereafter has a more suspicious, militaristic and anti-Irish Catholic character and is better armed.

This all makes no difference in the British Isles, or the greater publicity boosts the Fenian movement and the radical version of Irish nationalism in Ireland and England, even if they still never have a chance of outright winning.

 

[raharris1973]

Any thoughts from the OP or others on what I sketched out?

 

[Md139115]

British North America / Canada after facing this surprisingly successful Fenian coup issues demands to the U.S. to disavow and cut off the Fenians.

The US government does cut off the Fenians, but its unpopular (could this effect the anti-Johnson impeachment process, or hand victory to Horatio Seymour in 1868 on the back of mobilized Irish-American support?)

But what if the US tells Britain to "shove it?" Keep in mind that the compensation that Britain paid out for damages done to the American merchant marine by British built (and mostly British crewed) Confederate ships wasn't settled until 1867, and many Republicans deeply hated the British for some of their actions in the late war. Really, this could be seen as a fulfillment of Lincoln's "one war at a time" idea.

 

[raharris1973]

President Johnson could find telling the British to "shove it" a tempting distraction, what happens after that depends on whether Republicans feel like placing priority on getting revenge against Johnson or revenge on the British. Both at once is a bit too much to put on the plate.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

If the Fenian battle plan had gone as they hoped, in all likelihood they become over encumbered by their victory and end up being captured en masse trying to cross the border when Col. Peacock's column arrives. The victory at Ridgeway was a skirmish which probably couldn't have done too much better than historically, as if they'd stayed and slugged it out on the field they waste time which puts them squarely in the sights of the advancing Anglo-Canadian force. The Fenians had maybe 600-800 at the battle itself, but many had crept away by the time they had their firefight at Fort Erie. Peacock had some 1,500 men (artillery, cavalry, and infantry, with eight companies of regulars) and compared to the maybe 600 Fenians with only small arms that would be overkill. By the 6th there were 3,000 militia and regulars on the Niagara Peninsula with the option to send more.

In purely military terms even if the Fenians had been able to reinforce their victory after Ridgeway as planned, follow up operations are basically doomed as more British and Canadian troops arrive with more cavalry and artillery.

A "bigger" victory at Ridgeway wouldn't do much more. The British were already sending reinforcements and the United States suddenly found itself confronting an unwanted international incident. Maybe you make the Fenians more willing to thumb their nose at the law, but after the initial fiasco on June 2nd, the British and Canadians will be ready for another raid.

If another raid was allowed across the border that raises some pointed questions in Washington. Johnson was already starting to get locked in combat with the Radicals, who most likely don't want to waste money and soldiers on fighting for Fenians and Ireland when they still have Reconstruction first and foremost on their mind. The army is rapidly winding down and Red Cloud is about to go on the war path in the West. The nation was tired of war, and you'd need some heavy commitment on the part of some party to really stoke feelings in favor of a border incident. I don't see the Republicans as being very vested in the matter, and the Democrats might trumpet it for the Irish vote, but after four bloody years of civil war I can't see anyone relishing a fight with Britain over the issue, and everything probably goes to the negotiators eventually.

A bigger incident might take place if the British had captured the Fenians, as some 600 American citizens being held by British courts would be an...interesting situation. Some Fenians were put on trial historically, but were given comparatively light sentences. With 600 or so you've got a very angry Canadian populace that is out for blood, and if O'Neill is amongst the captives he'd be a very tempting target.