WI Battle of Leyte Gulf japan wins

Mrstrategy

Banned
what happens if japan wins the Battle of Leyte Gulf?
  • Kurita dont withdraw and attacks the shipping in leyte gulf
 
The American liberation of the Philippines is delayed for a few months; the Central Pacific offensive is unchanged and Okinawa falls on schedule.

The biggest impact it would have had would probably have been the ruination of Admiral Halsey's career and a slew of court-martials for the avoidable loss of tens of thousands of American lives.
 
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Also, he'd have to contend with ~80 DDs and DDEs.

Not to mention Oldendorf's 6 battleships, Taffy 1 & taffy 2, and McCain's TG 38.1 with its 3 fleet and 2 light carriers coming into range ...
Not exactly a free win once past Taffy 3 ....
 
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Japan at best buys a few more months, if the bombs are dropped as scheduled maybe not even that.

The transports were empty by this point so that won't help the immediate situation.

Agreed that Halsey will answer for there not being a Task Force 34...
 
Not to mention Oldendorf's 6 battleships, Taffy 1 & taffy 2, and McCain's TG 38.1 with its 3 fleet and 2 light carriers coming into range ...
Not exactly a free win once past Taffy 3 ....
Indeed the chances of the Center Force actually getting within shelling range of the landings is very low.
 

CalBear

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Well, for one thing something like 70-80% of the cargo shipping was already off loaded and gone (the landings were on the 20th, the Battle of Samar was on the 25th). Had he continued on he would have likely have been wiped out by the other two Taffy task forces before reaching the anchorage. Once Kurita broke through the Taffys , assuming he did (this is very much an open question since 77.1 & 77.2 were two+ hours steaming from Taffy 3 (77.3) and were able to rearm their aircraft with torpedoes, and AP bombs (77.1 was equipped with F6F, that could carry 1,000 pound SAP bombs) he would then have to contend with roughly 30 destroyers. (The number remaining in the anchorages at the time of the battle is somewhat unclear, some had left to escort the now unloaded cargo ships, the remainder were there to cover the remaining merchant shipping.) If he managed to reach the anchorage (keep in mind that his escort force was savaged fighting Taffy 3, have lost 3 CA sunk, 3 CA and a DD damaged) he would have, maximum, two hours before TG 38.1 has aircraft over the anchorage (the battle with Taffy 3 began at 06:38, the engagement occurring roughly 90 miles from the northern anchorage McCain launched his first strike from TG 38.1 at 10:30) and what is left of his forces is wiped out.
 

trurle

Banned
Well, only reasonable hope for Japanese to win in the battle of Leyte Gulf (against 4-times numerically superior US forces) is to have one or two of the US navy groups stranded in luckily placed minefield, with may be a couple capital ships too damaged by mines to participate in action and others unable to get into attack range and can be scared off later.
In this case, the battle of Leyte may be extended by 2 weeks at most. Ormoc was absolutely indefensible as the the Japanese naval base in longer term (against aviation and PT boats operating from previously captured small islands) even if larger US ships can be sunk or neutralized. And as soon as Japanese fleet withdraw from Ormoc, their land forces will eventually run out of ammunition.
 
Well, only reasonable hope for Japanese to win in the battle of Leyte Gulf (against 4-times numerically superior US forces) is to have one or two of the US navy groups stranded in luckily placed minefield, with may be a couple capital ships too damaged by mines to participate in action and others unable to get into attack range and can be scared off later.
In this case, the battle of Leyte may be extended by 2 weeks at most. Ormoc was absolutely indefensible as the the Japanese naval base in longer term (against aviation and PT boats operating from previously captured small islands) even if larger US ships can be sunk or neutralized. And as soon as Japanese fleet withdraw from Ormoc, their land forces will eventually run out of ammunition.
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More logically would have been the entire surpassing thre Phiippines and go directly for Japan, doing the Nimitz strategy and leaving MacArthur playing in the sand in the SW Pacific. So no bloodshed in the Philippines and no Leyte, leaving the IJN even more starved of fuel (need to operate in further away regions of the Pacific from the East Indies Oilfields) resulting in further atricion of their military capabilities. Most likely even earlier surrender, after more damage is doen by USAAF bombingcampaign from Marshal Islands and strikes from carriers on the coastlines, due to avoiding delays due to the Philippines Campaign. Perhaps no Nuclear attacks needed, as Japan's cities and industry get bombed sooner than in the OTL. More of the IJN survives, but remains idle due to starvation of fuel.
 
Aren't Japanese going to be down on their ammo at this point too - on top of everything else.

Would apply to at least some of Oldendorf's ships also wouldn't it? IJN gunnery was awful anyway.

ISTR one IJN CA actually took a bad hit from one of the CVE's rear gun.
 
Samar created what I consider two of the greatest naval quotes ever:

"That's it boys, we're sucking them into 40mm range!" and, after Kurita stopped advancing and turned...

"Goddamn it, they're getting away!"

One of the most amazing pictures I've ever seen was of CVE GAMBIER BAY bracketed by YAMATO's shellfire, the splashes tower _above_ the flight deck!
 

Sir Chaos

Banned
But what if Taffy 3 hadn´t been in Kurita´s path?

As far as I can tell, the USN didn´t realize Kurita was on the way to the anchorage until he ran across Taffy 3.

So what if he doesn´t encounter Taffy 3, and the first notice the USN gets that he is there is when the ships at the anchorage, and their escorts, sight his approaching task force?

Even sinking all the cargo ships won´t make a decisive difference, and sucked this far in, Kurita´s force is far more likely to be completely destroyed before it can escape, but he´d do a lot more damage than historically.
 

CalBear

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But what if Taffy 3 hadn´t been in Kurita´s path?

As far as I can tell, the USN didn´t realize Kurita was on the way to the anchorage until he ran across Taffy 3.

So what if he doesn´t encounter Taffy 3, and the first notice the USN gets that he is there is when the ships at the anchorage, and their escorts, sight his approaching task force?

Even sinking all the cargo ships won´t make a decisive difference, and sucked this far in, Kurita´s force is far more likely to be completely destroyed before it can escape, but he´d do a lot more damage than historically.
He has to run into one of the TF 77 carrier groups. His course track goes through the area the carriers more or less had to be in order to provide air cover and have enough sea room to conduct flight operations. The Taffys had to be in the area, it was as close to the beaches as could be managed while providing the freedom of movement necessary to operate.
 
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