WI: Battle of Ia Drang valley results in a decisive North Vietnamese victory?

Commissar

Banned
as Ia Drang was in 1965, then the casualties shoot up to around 2500. As to the declaration of war point, it is irrelevant really. A simple declaration of national emergency and call up similar in scale and scope to Korea would be enough to ensure that the US has sufficient ground forces for Vietnam as well as its other commitments. I do agree however that there would have been a change in command, with McNamara and Westmoreland both potentially on the chopping block. The Chief of Staff of the Army, Harold Johnson, is on record stating he regretted not resigning after being turned down for the State of Emergency declaration. He would certainly do so in this case, and go to the press with his reasons... and LBJ would be hard pressed not to respond accordingly with either a complete withdraw or full scale mobilization and commitment. I tend to think that he would really have little political choice but to go all in (to use a poker term) and mobilize.

A national emergency call up is political suicide and Congress is already starting to realize it was duped over Tonkin Gulf. A disaster like this will have Congress launching all sorts of inquiries.

It will also be impossible to send more troops due to lack of logistics support at that time.

McNamara and Westmoreland are definitely finished as Ia Drang was their ideal and they wanted it as a way to fight a battle of annihilation like in WW2. A mindset they never dropped.
 
The Battle of Ia Drang valley is a decisive NVA victory in Garth Ennis' The Boys. Though that's only because the assault rifles supplied by a fictional company called Vought-American didn't work (i.e. they wouldn't fire), causing the GIs to be slaughtered to the last man. There is a very, uh, graphic description about the aftermath of the battle that is indicative of Ennis' twisted humour.

I believe the outrage leads to RFK getting elected in '68.
 
The Battle of Ia Drang valley is a decisive NVA victory in Garth Ennis' The Boys. Though that's only because the assault rifles supplied by a fictional company called Vought-American didn't work (i.e. they wouldn't fire), causing the GIs to be slaughtered to the last man. There is a very, uh, graphic description about the aftermath of the battle that is indicative of Ennis' twisted humour.

I believe the outrage leads to RFK getting elected in '68.

Wouldn't an unexpected thunderstorm shutting down helicopter resupply and air strikes have been enough? :confused: The NVA's lesser firepower worked at night and in the rain, UH-1's and most (all?) of the aircraft used for air support were either grounded or drastically less effective.

Ok, I don't know if it was monsoon season or not but unexpected severe storms still happen. That would have left 1st of the 7th with only artillery support, and given how close it was that probably would not have been enough.
 
A national emergency call up is political suicide and Congress is already starting to realize it was duped over Tonkin Gulf. A disaster like this will have Congress launching all sorts of inquiries.

It will also be impossible to send more troops due to lack of logistics support at that time.

McNamara and Westmoreland are definitely finished as Ia Drang was their ideal and they wanted it as a way to fight a battle of annihilation like in WW2. A mindset they never dropped.

probably not, LBJ could have done it at any point up until 1967 and probably gotten away with it. After all, Truman did during Korea, and Kennedy during the Missile Crisis. Certainly it would not have helped him, but as it turns out, his other choice (not to) turned out to be an even bigger mistake politically.

I agree with you on the logistics issues, the bases are still being built to handle the eventual peak numbers well into 1966. Losing both Westmoreland and McNamara might actually be a net positive for the US war effort in Vietnam.
 
Wouldn't an unexpected thunderstorm shutting down helicopter resupply and air strikes have been enough? :confused: The NVA's lesser firepower worked at night and in the rain, UH-1's and most (all?) of the aircraft used for air support were either grounded or drastically less effective.

Ok, I don't know if it was monsoon season or not but unexpected severe storms still happen. That would have left 1st of the 7th with only artillery support, and given how close it was that probably would not have been enough.

if you have read "We Were Soldiers Once, and Young" it is pretty clear that even a few bad breaks for the US side, and a couple of breaks for the NVA and the 1/7th and attachments is wiped out. The biggest possibility for disaster was acurately potrayed in the movie, where a napalm strike hit part of the command area, decimating the weapons platoon and a second bomb narrowly missed the actual command group. That bomb hits, and Hal Moore, the Forward air controller, and the entire command group is wiped out, and the companies (already severely depleted) are overrun in pretty short order as their access to fire support is badly disrupted.
 

Commissar

Banned
probably not, LBJ could have done it at any point up until 1967 and probably gotten away with it.

No, he couldn't as one Congress would not go along with it and two, Johnson did not want to go with it as it would kill his Social Programs which he gave equal weight to and weaken Europe.

American Forces were there to support the ARVN, not fight the war by itself, which is what got the Tonkin Gulf Resolution passed in the first place.
 
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