WI: Battle of Britain never happened.

[Hal Jordan]

What would World War Two have been like if Germany never attacked the UK directly, meaning no battle of Britain.

In this case, the Nazis focus on North Africa and Continental Europe.

 

[Peebothuhlu]

At work.

As has been asked/postulated before in other similar alt times....

One different version/way of change is for the German command to be sold of 'Wonder-fluff' a tad earlier and for air launched V-1's to be thrown more 'Enmass' at England.

So, a rather different 'Battle of Britain' as it were.

Just offering different ideas of the 'Why' and 'How' history changes.

 

[Catspoke]

Positives (for the Axis):
a) Over a thousand extra German planes and pilots would be available for Barbarossa and or the Mediterranean.
b) Italian air contingent sent to participate might could do some good in Greece or North Africa in late 40.
c) Lots of aviation fuel saved.
d) Tensions with USA lowered a bit.

Negatives:
a) Britain would figure out there wan't a threat pretty quickly. Would probably ship out an extra division or two to the mid east, probably leaving about September 1st or so and ready to use in the mid east in December or so. (OTL the British already took some risks doing Dakar and sending tanks to the mid east anyway, but probably would send more here).
b) Hundreds of British aircraft and pilots now available.
c) Soviet Union might be more suspicious of German intentions than OTL. (might be obvious the Germans are prepping up for Barbarossa)

Questions:
a) Would Italy allow a bunch of German air-power to transfer to southern Italy or Sicily or even Rhodes in the summer or fall of 1940. If Italy would and even allow small contingents of German tanks and antitank guns in Libya early, this would be a positive development for the Axis.
b) Would a thousand extra German aircraft be decisive in Barbarossa (certainly around Leningrad or Odessa where basing and supply wouldn't be so much an issue, they would be helpful, and in reducing pockets earlier).
Would an extra division or two in December 1940 allow the British to just knock the Axis out of Africa by March 1941. (and would this actually help or hurt the Axis via OTL)

 

[thorr97]

Hmm....

This could be part of Hitler's attempts to "woo" the UK. He'd already let on as to how Germany had no actual desire to the fight the British, they just wanted justice against the French and a free hand on the Continent. The UK could have its Empire with no need for any quarrel between the British and German peoples. This all being just as devout and truthful a promise from Adolf as any of his others...

Without the Blitz there'd be less ire from the average Briton aimed toward Germany. This, much like there was less ire from the average German directed at the English until the RAF began burning down Germany's cities. The support for the Nazi Party actually increased after that as a feeling of national unity due to a common threat took hold in Germany. The same thing had happened in England due to the Blitz. No Blitz and there'd be less of that national unity in the UK and more of an attitude of "it's not our fight and the Germans aren't really our enemy" would be more prevalent.

With some adroit propaganda on the Nazi's part they could parlay this into making it very difficult for Churchill to increase the war's scope against Germany. This, especially in support of Communist Russia. The Nazis did, in OTL, try and portray their war against the Soviets as being some sort of a "valiant struggle of Western values and freedoms against the evil Bolshevik hordes!" That message fell rather flat as Britons looked out at their charred cities from the latest round of Luftwaffe bombings.

Thus Germany might find itself with all those "extra" pilots, aircraft, and fuel facing a Soviet Union that is even more isolated than in OTL as Churchill might not be able to justify supporting the USSR in the face of a more "peaceful" Nazi Germany. The threat of Germany's unleashing its "mighty Luftwaffe" against the UK could be quite the lever to that end.

 

[Catspoke]

Hmm....

This could be part of Hitler's attempts to "woo" the UK. He'd already let on as to how Germany had no actual desire to the fight the British, they just wanted justice against the French and a free hand on the Continent. The UK could have its Empire with no need for any quarrel between the British and German peoples. This all being just as devout and truthful a promise from Adolf as any of his others...

Without the Blitz there'd be less ire from the average Briton aimed toward Germany. This, much like there was less ire from the average German directed at the English until the RAF began burning down Germany's cities. The support for the Nazi Party actually increased after that as a feeling of national unity due to a common threat took hold in Germany. The same thing had happened in England due to the Blitz. No Blitz and there'd be less of that national unity in the UK and more of an attitude of "it's not our fight and the Germans aren't really our enemy" would be more prevalent.

With some adroit propaganda on the Nazi's part they could parlay this into making it very difficult for Churchill to increase the war's scope against Germany. This, especially in support of Communist Russia. The Nazis did, in OTL, try and portray their war against the Soviets as being some sort of a "valiant struggle of Western values and freedoms against the evil Bolshevik hordes!" That message fell rather flat as Britons looked out at their charred cities from the latest round of Luftwaffe bombings.

Thus Germany might find itself with all those "extra" pilots, aircraft, and fuel facing a Soviet Union that is even more isolated than in OTL as Churchill might not be able to justify supporting the USSR in the face of a more "peaceful" Nazi Germany. The threat of Germany's unleashing its "mighty Luftwaffe" against the UK could be quite the lever to that end.

Yes, there would be less escalation of bombing as the Germans have better bases and more planes and the British who aren't being bombed would fear retaliation.

I suspect additional German/Italian air power and attention in the med would in general cancel out additional British forces that could be placed there. But the British would win victories, certainly Italian East Africa would fall, keeping British public support up in the war for a while anyway. There probably isn't much incentive if not under any threat to make peace, and its not been long enough for apathy to set in, so I doubt if any peace movement breaks out.

I suspect the additional German aircraft means Leningrad would fall in 1941 and perhaps Sevastopol as it would be easy to supply the extra aircraft in those areas. It would also allow additional aircraft in the October 41 on time frame around Moscow as attrition and withdraws to the Mediterranean shrunk the German aircraft pool more than supply constraints. This likely means the Soviet counterattack is lessened as the Soviet have to commit more reserves early to defense and the Germans are able to put up more air power in the winter (and maybe Lend Lease is delayed a month or two if the British as you suggest adopt a more wait and see attitude torward the Soviets). I suspect once the Soviets stop the Germans in December, (and the USA is in) the British will be all in as in OTL.

But the Germans are in better shape in 1942 on the eastern front, probably leading to a stalemate grinder from November 1942 until September 43, vs an epic Stalingrad like fail, but by then Italy's withdrawal means the force ratios are well in the Soviets favor by then.

 

[catalfalque]

No BoB doesn't mean a nothing replaces it, so the German raids on the Channel ports would continue, and be a major focus, so it would certainly tie down both a degree of UK aerial defences and Luftwaffe attack units

BUT the strong steady bleed of the BoB for the Luftwaffe would be avoided, as might indeed the Blitz

If Germany clearly has no plan to invade Britain, then Britain can focus on rebuilding, but at the same time the aid from the US might be less if Churchill cannot show probable threat

 

[GDIS Pathe]

a) Would Italy allow a bunch of German air-power to transfer to southern Italy or Sicily or even Rhodes in the summer or fall of 1940. If Italy would and even allow small contingents of German tanks and antitank guns in Libya early, this would be a positive development for the Axis.

why would the Italians who outnumber the British some 10-1 ask for help by the same notion why would OKW decide to send resources to Africa instead of saving the for Barbossa?

 

[Catspoke]

why would the Italians who outnumber the British some 10-1 ask for help by the same notion why would OKW decide to send resources to Africa instead of saving the for Barbossa?

Well its a year between France falling and Barbarossa beginning so there may be some desire to do something in the mean time. But yes it is not so obvious that the help is needed yet. Likely OTL plays out, with the additional Italian air available not used in the Battle of Britain available and an increased stream of British reinforcements once the British figure out the Germans aren't going to invade.

Perhaps Italian strategy might be different if no BOB is on the horizon. In OTL there would be some concern that the Germans would invade and peace would break out and the Italians needed to hold chunks of territory like Sidi Barrani and Kassala for some peace conference, here the Italians might be more patient.

 

[Catspoke]

No BoB doesn't mean a nothing replaces it, so the German raids on the Channel ports would continue, and be a major focus, so it would certainly tie down both a degree of UK aerial defences and Luftwaffe attack units

BUT the strong steady bleed of the BoB for the Luftwaffe would be avoided, as might indeed the Blitz

If Germany clearly has no plan to invade Britain, then Britain can focus on rebuilding, but at the same time the aid from the US might be less if Churchill cannot show probable threat

The channel ports could continue or not, the OP seemed to imply no attacks at all, but yes a more attrition-ally favorable "Battle of Britain" lite could be an option.

 

[sonofpegasus]

Could Germany in reality leave a substantially unbowed Britain to rebuild and rearm to threaten her exposed flank as she turns East. IMVHO unless Great Britain has been forced into a non belligerent pact then the Battle of Britain or a similar campaign is inevitable. Perhaps the Night Blitz happens without the preliminary daylight battle but an air assault of some sort is I think essential to preserve German ascendancy.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

A great deal of damage was inflicted on the UK during this time - including Supermarine in Southampton among others - not to mention a great many pilots killed or badly wounded

And then the subsequant Blitz also badly damaged Infrastructure and while British output continually improved the effects of dispersing industry as well as theknock on effect of some of the more sucessful Port attacks did impact the expected output on several occasions

So no BoB and one would assume no or a less sucessful Blitz (in the face of a far far stronger RAF Fighter command) might save lots of Luftwaffe crews in the short run - but suddenly there is 1000s of more RAF Pilots and resources now freed up for the Fleet Air Arm to better oppose any increased German LW precence in the Med

And the LW is not going to reinforce the Med until the Italian's start getting beaten up by the British (its an Italian Sea after all!!)

 

[elkarlo]

The British wasted a lot of pilots in 41 attacking France. Seems they wanted to be on the offensive. They basically pointlessly lost over 200 aircraft there doing nothing. They'd probably do that in 40 then imho

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

This could be part of Hitler's attempts to "woo" the UK. He'd already let on as to how Germany had no actual desire to the fight the British, they just wanted justice against the French and a free hand on the Continent. The UK could have its Empire with no need for any quarrel between the British and German peoples. This all being just as devout and truthful a promise from Adolf as any of his others...

While making a large show out of preparing for a 1941 invasion. Not going all out in 1940 is the carrot to bring Britain to the peace conference, the obvious (and as we know bluff) of invasion preparations is the stick.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

The British wasted a lot of pilots in 41 attacking France. Seems they wanted to be on the offensive. They basically pointlessly lost over 200 aircraft there doing nothing. They'd probably do that in 40 then imho

It was 400 during 1941 (and surviving pilots lost as POWs) - for less than 100 Luftwaffe (surviving piltos obviously recovered) - yes I am quite cross about that - not specifically for the losses themselves but for the

But the upshot would be that the RAF fighter command could not horde resources into late 41 under the pretext that they were needed to defend Britain verse a 2nd BoB / Invasion and we would likely see Spitfire in Malta and North Africa Earlier with larger numbers of P40s and Hurricanes pushed further afield

 

[starman]

What if, instead of attacking Britain directly, the Luftwaffe in 1940 sought to target British ships? An old book, Why Air Forces Fail, pointed out that a relatively small number of aircraft sank a surprisingly large amount of tonnage. What if that was the main objective of the Luftwaffe in 1940-41?

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Could Germany in reality leave a substantially unbowed Britain to rebuild and rearm to threaten her exposed flank as she turns East. IMVHO unless Great Britain has been forced into a non belligerent pact then the Battle of Britain or a similar campaign is inevitable. Perhaps the Night Blitz happens without the preliminary daylight battle but an air assault of some sort is I think essential to preserve German ascendancy.

I agree that Germany has to take some sort of offensive action against the British Isles before Barbarossa for the reasons you have given and to prevent a stronger British reinforcement of her position in the Middle East.

I think Germany's best option would be no BoB as we know it but to continue and intensify its campaign against British coastal shipping instead of trying to destroy Fighter Command. That would be in combination with an earlier and more intensive night Blitz. Except that starting the Blitz earlier might not be possible due to the shorter summer nights. A more intensive Blitz starting at the same time as the OTL Blitz should be possible because no BoB means more bombers (and bombs and aviation fuel) would be available, but in this situation a shortage of ground crews might prevent the Luftwaffe from using the extra aircraft and aircrew.

In this Blitz the Luftwaffe would concentrate on the ports, shipyards and steel works in that order because Hitler directed it to support the Kriegsmarine and Maritime Luftwaffe in the Battle of the Atlantic. Some of the bombers saved to September 1940 by the change of strategy ITTL would be used to strengthen IX. Fligerkorps the Luftwaffe's mine warfare command and to expand Fliegerführer Atlantik into a Fligerkorps. If possible they would increase production of the Fw200.

However, even then I think the Luftwaffe has to be seen to do be doing something in daylight over the British Isles in the summer of 1940. I think the something would be high-altitude fighter sweeps over south east England by the Bf109s and Bf110s.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

What if, instead of attacking Britain directly, the Luftwaffe in 1940 sought to target British ships? An old book, Why Air Forces Fail, pointed out that a relatively small number of aircraft sank a surprisingly large amount of tonnage. What if that was the main objective of the Luftwaffe in 1940-41?

I've been Ninja'd!

Except that because I have turned on my indicate bad English function I have to point out that target isn't a synonym for aim, attack, bomb, destroy, find, search or sink although it is incorrectly used as one with depressing frequency. So the Luftwaffe will have to attack British ships instead of target them.

 

[Peebothuhlu]

At work.

I agree that Germany has to take some sort of offensive action against the British Isles before Barbarossa for the reasons you have given and to prevent a stronger British reinforcement of her position in the Middle East.

I think Germany's best option would be no BoB as we know it but to continue and intensify its campaign against British coastal shipping instead of trying to destroy Fighter Command. That would be in combination with an earlier and more intensive night Blitz. Except that starting the Blitz earlier might not be possible due to the shorter summer nights. A more intensive Blitz starting at the same time as the OTL Blitz should be possible because no BoB means more bombers (and bombs and aviation fuel) would be available, but in this situation a shortage of ground crews might prevent the Luftwaffe from using the extra aircraft and aircrew.

In this Blitz the Luftwaffe would concentrate on the ports, shipyards and steel works in that order because Hitler directed it to support the Kriegsmarine and Maritime Luftwaffe in the Battle of the Atlantic. Some of the bombers saved to September 1940 by the change of strategy ITTL would be used to strengthen IX. Fligerkorps the Luftwaffe's mine warfare command and to expand Fliegerführer Atlantik into a Fligerkorps. If possible they would increase production of the Fw200.

However, even then I think the Luftwaffe has to be seen to do be doing something in daylight over the British Isles in the summer of 1940. I think the something would be high-altitude fighter sweeps over south east England by the Bf109s and Bf110s.

The above but as I pointed out (And has been discussed else where) building and throwing lots of V-1's early has the Lufftwaff being seen to be doing 'Something'.

Gives the RAF a head ache to contend with.

Gives the Germans something for the Brits to have to come across the channel to try and stop the launch sites.

Which puts the Lufftwaff at the 'Home advantage'. Plus the air launches just to add to the weight of explisives thrown, hence needing to be stopped and/or landing on things which might be important.

Cheers.

 

[bernardz]

I've been Ninja'd!

Except that because I have turned on my indicate bad English function I have to point out that target isn't a synonym for aim, attack, bomb, destroy, find, search or sink although it is incorrectly used as one with depressing frequency. So the Luftwaffe will have to attack British ships instead of target them.

Ships, mine laying, ports, etc

Now a port is a nice big target and if mines are used the airforce can be especially inaccurate. If Britain then had an Achilles heel it was the ports of Liverpool.

 

[thaddeus]

The British wasted a lot of pilots in 41 attacking France. Seems they wanted to be on the offensive. They basically pointlessly lost over 200 aircraft there doing nothing. They'd probably do that in 40 then imho

It was 400 during 1941 (and surviving pilots lost as POWs) - for less than 100 Luftwaffe (surviving piltos obviously recovered) - yes I am quite cross about that - not specifically for the losses themselves but for the

(And has been discussed else where) building and throwing lots of V-1's early has the Lufftwaff being seen to be doing 'Something'.

Gives the RAF a head ache to contend with. Gives the Germans something for the Brits to have to come across the channel to try and stop the launch sites.

Which puts the Lufftwaff at the 'Home advantage'. Plus the air launches just to add to the weight of explisives thrown, hence needing to be stopped and/or landing on things which might be important.

my scenario is a trifecta of magnetic mines, butterfly bombs, and some version of later Hailstone https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blohm_&_Voss_BV_246

in addition to home advantage they might be able to provoke an earlier Dieppe-type raid(s)