WI: Basil II dies at the Battle of the Gates of Trajan?

While Eastern Roman Emperor Basil II is famous for reincorporating Bulgaria into the empire, his first foray, the Battle of the Gates of Trajan in 986 AD, was a disaster which led to the rebellions of Bardas Phokas and Bardas Skleros. IOTL, Basil escaped and returned with a vengeance, but what would have happened if Basil had been killed? His brother, Constantine VIII was 26 years old and Zoe and Theodora were infants. And Basil's sister, Anna, and aunt, Theodora, were unmarried (the latter had previously married John I Tzimiskes and may have had a daughter by him, Theophano Kourkouas).

How long would Constantine VIII and the Macedonian dynasty last? Would Phokas and Skleros still rebel? IIRC, Bardas Skleros the Elder may have had a connection to the imperial family through his mother, Gregoria, daughter of Basil I's brother.

I'm not sure if this POD has been explored before, so any thoughts?
 
I'm not sure if this POD has been explored before, so any thoughts?

I've not seen it before.

My initial first thought is that Constantine VIII, now sole Emperor, is quite likely to effectively cede power to the Dynatoi in the way his father and grandfather did. IOTL, whatever his other failings, Constantine seems to have been shrewd enough to stay out of the way and leave the real business of ruling to his brother, so I'd imagine this'll continue here. I'd imagine Constantine's girls will be betrothed to sons of the nobility.

As for Bulgaria, I can't see much continued warfare here, so quite likely the Bulgarians will flourish through the eleventh century. The attention of the noble-led regime will most certainly be on the Eastern front, so I'd expect further campaigning in Syria and Mesopotamia. Quite likely the Fatimids become the main military focus of the period, rather than the Bulgarians as IOTL.
 
The attention of the noble-led regime will most certainly be on the Eastern front, so I'd expect further campaigning in Syria and Mesopotamia. Quite likely the Fatimids become the main military focus of the period, rather than the Bulgarians as IOTL.

If the military is still comparatively as strong as OTL, is there any chance of retaking the Levant, or is that too firmly under Muslim control?

I ask because it always bugged me how at its strongest, the empire was content to stay within its borders rather than attempt any major reconquests of useful lost territory.
 
I've not seen it before.

My initial first thought is that Constantine VIII, now sole Emperor, is quite likely to effectively cede power to the Dynatoi in the way his father and grandfather did. IOTL, whatever his other failings, Constantine seems to have been shrewd enough to stay out of the way and leave the real business of ruling to his brother, so I'd imagine this'll continue here. I'd imagine Constantine's girls will be betrothed to sons of the nobility.

Perhaps there'd be a chance for Constantine VIII to have at least one son, a potential Romanos III? Zoe was initially betrothed to HRE Otto III, who, it seems, was also distantly related to the Macedonians via the Skleroi.

As for Bulgaria, I can't see much continued warfare here, so quite likely the Bulgarians will flourish through the eleventh century. The attention of the noble-led regime will most certainly be on the Eastern front, so I'd expect further campaigning in Syria and Mesopotamia. Quite likely the Fatimids become the main military focus of the period, rather than the Bulgarians as IOTL.

While I can see further campaigns against the Fatimids, permanent conquest seems more in line with Nikephoros II Phokas and John I Tzimiskes. And I believe Armenia was breaking up around this time and was exploited by Basil II.

I'd also expect future revenge campaigns against Bulgaria, at least to regain Thessaly and Dyrrachium.
 
Bumping for interest.

I've also been thinking of another POD - what if Romanos II didn't die in 963 AD? Would Basil still turn out the way he did if his father was still alive?
 
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