WI Bashir Gemayel not assassinated?

Can he stabilize Lebanon or reach an unofficial ceasefire with Israel (like Syria IOTL)? How long can he stay in power?

Hash: any thoughts?
 

Bearcat

Banned
Can he stabilize Lebanon or reach an unofficial ceasefire with Israel (like Syria IOTL)? How long can he stay in power?

Hash: any thoughts?

I'll defer to Hash, but I have my doubts.

The Phalangists were hardly nice guys. Strong fascist leanings, actually. I can't see him making the kind of deals with the non-Christian elements in Lebanon that would be needed to bring peace.
 
All "political parties" in Lebanon were feudal-style power blocs disguised as political organisations . Even within the maronites , each "capo" headed his own mafia style gang , Franjie , Jaaza and Gemayel being the most notorious . With the second (Jaaza)assasinating the son of the first (Franjie)over a hundred year old vendetta ,and at the behest of the third!!!(Gemayel) should give you an idea about the bloody mess that the lebanese politics were . Gemayel could hardly represent all the maronites , let alone all lebanese christians , who in the last stages of the civil war even fought against the maronites alongside the muslims .
 
Hash had a much lower opinion of him than either of you did. (I'm not surprised) Is there any Maronite politician who will not remain obsessed with minority rule from the outdated NP? Even at the NP's creation in 1943, Christians were only a bare majority.
 
A minority for the sake of which Lebanon was created by the French (harboring post WW1 delusions of an "Outremer a nouveau") . Anyway, taking into account the syrian factor , which at the time of your proposed rapprochement played an even more important role than today , no Lebanon-Israel peace deal would have worked unless it went through Damascus , which means the Golan heights back to Syria
 

Hashasheen

Banned
I've given you my opinion Rogue. I don't think I'll be able to be offer any more help without dipping into the ol' rage pot.
 

Bearcat

Banned
The whole idea of a 'Christian' state in Lebanon was largely an error and a European imposition. It would have been better if the French had never set it up the way they did.

In any event, no POD as late as this can put the genie back in the bottle. Lebanon is going to go through a period of turmoil as the demographics shift and people, ever so slowly, come to terms with the new realities.

If you can remove the PLO's influence in the 1970s, it will be less of a catastrophe, though some sort of civil war may still be likely. Unfortunately, I can't offer much more than that. :(
 
The presence of the PLO in Lebanon , though in no way beneficent towards political stability , was but the tip of the iceberg . Maronites had watched their political influence steadily erode through the years and so felt more and more existentialy threatened . In fact, it was the civil war that radicalised the polarised elements of lebanese society , not vice versa . Not being able to control a declining, inflationary economy was no help either .
 
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