WI Baryou Makes the Runoff?

This one is pretty straightfoward. What if Francois Bayrou finishes ahead of Segolene Royal and makes the runoff with Sarkozy? Who wins? Does the UDF stay together, and how do they fair in the legislative elections? Who is Bayrou's PM and what does his cabinet look like? What happens to the PS considering that they missed the runoff in back-to-back elections?
 
Well, he would be president then, it make no doubt.
And it was pretty well know back then.

But, meh, he proved to be a bad leader.
He would have done better than Sarkozy, nothing difficult here, but He would be no more than a Chirac.
 
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If Bayrou arrives second in '07, I guess it means I vote for him, and along with me all those who cannot stand Sarkozy and are not very enthusiastic about Ségolène Royal either. Yes, Bayrou could be elected.

But the first ballot result was not even close in OTL (Royal got 2.6 million votes more than Bayrou), and after the traumatism of the 2002 election, any Socialist candidate would have got the same result (a bit less for Fabius, a bit more for Strauss-Kahn). So there is no way the moderate left wing candidate can be eliminated on the first round two presidential elections in a row.
 
If Bayrou arrives second in '07, I guess it means I vote for him, and along with me all those who cannot stand Sarkozy and are not very enthusiastic about Ségolène Royal either. Yes, Bayrou could be elected.

But the first ballot result was not even close in OTL (Royal got 2.6 million votes more than Bayrou), and after the traumatism of the 2002 election, any Socialist candidate would have got the same result (a bit less for Fabius, a bit more for Strauss-Kahn). So there is no way the moderate left wing candidate can be eliminated on the first round two presidential elections in a row.

Oh I understand that it was unlikely, but I was simply asking if you believed he would win and if so how he would govern.
 

Archibald

Banned
If Bayrou arrives second in '07, I guess it means I vote for him, and along with me all those who cannot stand Sarkozy and are not very enthusiastic about Ségolène Royal either.
Well said ! :eek:

Bayrou's problem was the lack of a strong political party to support him - if he really wants to beat Sarko the only way is an alliance with the socialist party. He has to struck a deal with Royal !
Well, Royal tried it OTL (the other way around of course, since she faced Sarko while Bayrou was out).
The deal was "give me your voters Francois (Bayrou) , and I'll make you my prime minister". Bayrou declined ( probably because being prime minister of a left government was not exactly what he wanted - he wanted, and still wants, to be president, to implement the reforms he dreams about.
Prime minister, by contrast, tends to be a death trap, while President gives more freedom to pass reforms... this is the France fifth Republic, thanks De Gaulle for that bizarre system !)
 
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