WI Barbarossa in 1905

BooNZ

Banned
Here the French have the massive advantage of their Russian allies being up to date on the latest battlefield experiences

Not many synergies there. The Russians spent most of their war sitting on their arses, while the French would be getting theirs shot to pieces...
 

BooNZ

Banned
EDIT: @BooNZ I didn't see you latest post until I had posted my reply to LordKalvert. What is your opinion on the TL potential of this scenerio?

The thing that makes me the least comfortable is the lack of rationale for the Germans to take a piece out of Russia at that time. Germany having a go at France circa 1905 over colonial matters is a tough sell, but at that time Germany and Russia did not have too many differences.

Thinking about it, Russia was meddling in the Balkans before the Russo-Japanese conflict, so I guess you could have Russia stepping on A-H toes, which creates tension along the border. Russia suddenly finds itself at war with both Japan and A-H - and things get out of control from there. I would love to see just Russia v A-H, Japan, and Ottomans in 1905.

As far as war goals, I don't think Germany was looking to build a European empire - it passed up Austria because they did not want any more Catholics. They were not that keen on an independent Poland, in case it inspired Polish minorities. I guess an independent Finland and those perhaps those Baltic states dominated by German nobles might be tempting, but I think Germany would have preferred stability - certainly not a Russian revolution.
 
@BooNZ All good points, duly noted. It is getting rather late where I live, and I should be going to bed. In the meantime, I welcome you and any other member to share his or her thoughts, suggestions, or criticisms but I will not be able to reply for a few hours. In the morning, I will come back with a more thorough reply. In the meantime, let it suffice to say that I am not saying the goals and objectives which I have set out for the Germans throughout this thread were advocated for by any particular one of Germany's rulers in 1905 (and you are obviously right in the straightforward way that they did not implement my idea OTL), but rather, are a kind of logic implied by the facts of the strategic situation itself, which I laid out in my various posts.
 
Okay, so I have been looking over some of the old threads about the possibility of a Franco-German War in 1905, WW1 in 1905, etc. and one of the things that emerges clearly from them, and what I have read about early twentieth-century Germany in general, is the Germans' fear of their dependence on imports and their resultant vulnerability to blockade. This was one of their big motivations for their naval buildup. So my (very rough) idea is that we could get TTL from army-navy institutional rivalry. Perhaps in the very late nineteenth or the first five years of the twentieth century, some incident happens that makes the German high command even more worried about being blockaded, and one or more high-ranking army officers begins pushing for my version of Barbarossa as a simpler and easier approach than the direct naval buildup, particularly given Britain's overwhelming naval preponderance. Perhaps this requires some other than Schlieffen as Chief of Staff, though. Austria would be motivated by the desire to have Russia permanently removed as a real or potential ally to its Balkan enemies. When the Russo-Japanese War and the 1905 Revolution hit, the Germans decide they will never get a better chance than this and strike.

Turning to your specific points, none of the areas I have referenced in my posts are going to be independent post-war. Depending on their degree of economic importance and the extent of resistance, I might consider allowing them some degree of autonomy, though. As I indicated in my reply to CommandoHowiezter, the areas for which I have really big plans are Ukraine and the Caucasus, so Poland might fall into the former category.

As far as the elite being uncomfortable with a Russian revolution, I actually agree in a way, but sooner or later they are going to have to decide whether that is really more uncomfortable than the Czar's armies sitting just across the East Prussian border from their big estates. Besides, revolution in Russia isn't really the end goal for the Germans here. It is a means to the end of a Russian collapse. The end goal is to have what is left of Russia turn into a kind of European equivalent of late Qing and Warlord era China-Multiple, fragmented polities incapable of real unity, which the Germans can play off against each other.
 
So does anyone else reading this think it would be a good TL? If enough people say yes I'll write a pilot installment and see how it goes.
 

BooNZ

Banned
So does anyone else reading this think it would be a good TL? If enough people say yes I'll write a pilot installment and see how it goes.

In 1905 the CP would simply be unstoppable without Britain [in the Entente], with Britain, the TL grinds to a halt once the nitrates run out - if Russia does not collapse earlier.
 
@BooNZ As I mentioned earlier, I find it unlikely that Britain would join France and Russia. If by unstoppable you mean that Russia will lose I agree entirely. However, I think France, fighting defensively (and it would be after its initial offensives crashed and burned) , could hold the CP off. Everything we have said about the French attacking into Germany applies equally the other way around, especially as the Germans could not go through Belgium for fear of bringing the British in and they are probably still wearing those bright uniforms.

@CommandoHowiezter OK, I'm seriously considering it now.

BTW, in the opinion of those of you with more time on AH than me, is 2,600 views good or bad for a thread around three days old?
 
@BooNZ As I mentioned earlier, I find it unlikely that Britain would join France and Russia. If by unstoppable you mean that Russia will lose I agree entirely. However, I think France, fighting defensively (and it would be after its initial offensives crashed and burned) , could hold the CP off. Everything we have said about the French attacking into Germany applies equally the other way around, especially as the Germans could not go through Belgium for fear of bringing the British in and they are probably still wearing those bright uniforms.

@CommandoHowiezter OK, I'm seriously considering it now.

BTW, in the opinion of those of you with more time on AH than me, is 2,600 views good or bad for a thread around three days old?


I just joined myself recently, so ya thnx for the compliment.:D 2600 views-not bad at all! Especially since you only had 3 days since first post.:)
 
UPDATE- I have just posted, in a new thread, the tentative first part of a TL based on this scenario. This discussion will now be moved there. Comments, questions, and constructive criticism are welcome.
 
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