I think we can all safely assume that given Hitler's temperament, a premature strike against the Soviet Union in either 1941, 1942, or 1943 was going to be inevitable.
That being said, given that Hitler had been talked out of untenable military gambits in the past (invading France in winter 1939 for instance), what if he too were talked down from his "War of Annhilation" fever dream and instead launched Barbarossa with limited goals in mind.
Which limited territorial acquisitions could've been had via war and subsequent peace negotiations after a 1941 invasion of the USSR?
The Wehrmacht can flex it's muscles but obviously not the point where the Soviets can't save face and survive as a regime post war.