WI: Baltic states with no Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact

Assuming that the Nazis and Soviets don't have the MRP, but some form of Operation Barbarossa takes place, how would the Baltic States react. Would they try to maintain their neutrality as their belligerent and considerably more powerful neighbours tear into each other, or would they pick a side, and if so with whom?
 

NoMommsen

Donor
I would assume they wouldn't have much of a choice in terms of staying out or not ... they would become war ground in every case and had to 'choose' (more of becomming property) the side whoever 'wins' there.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
I would assume they wouldn't have much of a choice in terms of staying out or not ... they would become war ground in every case and had to 'choose' (more of becomming property) the side whoever 'wins' there.
If the USSR doesn't invade them Hitler forces them to participate in Barbarossa (and occupies them of course)
 

ben0628

Banned
Would the Soviet Union try to invade them at the same time as Finland then? If so, You could potentially get the Baltic states to ally with Finland and if they somehow survive (doubtful) then they willingly join Finland and Germany in 1941 and become official German allies.
 
I suspect strongly that they'd go towards Germany rather than the Soviets.
1) they were, IIRC, right wing dictatorships, even if not nearly as nasty as the Nazis, still closer to them than the Soviets
2) they had been part of the Russian Empire before WWI and never wanted to go back.
 
I suspect strongly that they'd go towards Germany rather than the Soviets.
1) they were, IIRC, right wing dictatorships, even if not nearly as nasty as the Nazis, still closer to them than the Soviets
2) they had been part of the Russian Empire before WWI and never wanted to go back.

This. There were entire SS divisions formed out of recruits from the Baltics.
 
The Baltic nations remembered the events of WWI and the Freikorps wars with just as little fondness as they remembered the Russian Empire itself. It would not be easy to make a choice between USSR and Nazi Germany. But in the end I suspect they'd still choose Germany. With the possible exception of Lithuania, which might wish not to keep parts of her territory claimed by Germany (Memel/Klapeida).
 
The Baltic states would be occupied by the Soviets anyway before any invasion of the USSR could begin. No Soviet (or for that matter any Russian government) can allow them to fall under German control. The Germans might grab Lithuania though.
 
In the original Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, the Germans received Lithuania as part of their sphere of interest. Later, it was traded for a larger share of Poland.

It would be an interesting question if the Soviets don't drive quite as hard a bargain, and end up allowing the Germans to have Lithuania and perhaps even western Latvia, aka, old Courland (not likely, I know). That advances the effective German starting point for Barbarossa over 100 miles, especially toward Leningrad.

The Soviets would almost certainly still win in the end, but it would be uglier and more expensive for them. Might cost them Leningrad for a spell.
 
The interesting bit worth pointing out is that the elected Finnish leaders, paying attention to the Finnish people wanting to fight back, did so. The Presidents-in-perpetual-states-of-emergency, likely hoping that they could remain the rulers of puppet states, allowed the soviet "protection" forces in. Resisting the soviets would probably depend on how much German support the presidents of the Baltic states believe they would receive. There were also Baltic German populations here who left for Germany during the interbellum. With no M-R pact, Germany not inviting them back would give both a powerful minority group who would suggest and facilitate german 'aid'. How much of the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact was well known in that time?

The Baltic states would be occupied by the Soviets anyway before any invasion of the USSR could begin. No Soviet (or for that matter any Russian government) can allow them to fall under German control. The Germans might grab Lithuania though.

If Lithuania does remain independent and can negotiate with Germany, they would almost certainly be willing to trade Memel for Germans accepting that Vilnius and other parts of Poland with sufficient Lithuanian populations would become part of Lithuania.
 
The interesting bit worth pointing out is that the elected Finnish leaders, paying attention to the Finnish people wanting to fight back, did so. The Presidents-in-perpetual-states-of-emergency, likely hoping that they could remain the rulers of puppet states, allowed the soviet "protection" forces in. Resisting the soviets would probably depend on how much German support the presidents of the Baltic states believe they would receive. There were also Baltic German populations here who left for Germany during the interbellum. With no M-R pact, Germany not inviting them back would give both a powerful minority group who would suggest and facilitate german 'aid'. How much of the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact was well known in that time?



If Lithuania does remain independent and can negotiate with Germany, they would almost certainly be willing to trade Memel for Germans accepting that Vilnius and other parts of Poland with sufficient Lithuanian populations would become part of Lithuania.

Well, they did cede Memel to Germany in early 1939 anyway...

It would be interesting to see how a Lithuania left within Germany's sphere of influence would have fared, pre-Barbarossa.

P.S. Welcome aboard!
 
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