WI: Balkanized Mexico

Santa Anna's cconstitutional changes is 1836 sparked a number of rebellions, the most well known of which was Texas, because that was the one that was most sucessful.

But, what if others had been sucessful? What if the Republic of Yucatan, the Republic of the Rio Grande, and others had survived, effectively Balkanizing Mexico...
 
To be honest, the core of Mexico would probably survive, but we may see a California with the Baja and a Republic of Sonora etc.
 
One aspect I was thinking of was would the US carve out more than they did OTL in the Mexican-American War? Or would there even need to be that war - maybe the US would gobble 'em up like Texas.
 
The Republic of Yucatan isn't very likely, as although they did easily secure independence from Mexico, the uprising of the lower castes ended up overpowering them and they offered their sovereignty to whoever beat the Mayan rebels. The Mexicans were the ones who answered. The other breakaway Republics save for Texas also weren't really seceding very earnestly. It was more of a way to stick it to Santa Anna than an actual bid for independence. The only breakaway state other than Texas with a good chance of becoming permanently independent would be the the Rebel Mayan State, later known as Chan Santa Cruz.
 
Texas joined the Union willingly. Some American politicians werent even in favor of allowing Texas to join.

When I say "gobbled up", I mean morew or less how Texas was annexed. Austin's First Hundred weren't filibusters persay, but weren't all that far off.

Considering that there was ouitright fillibustering in other parts and US designs, I don't think parts of a Balkanized Mexico being annexed up like Texas instead of via war is that much of a stretch.

The Republic of Yucatan isn't very likely, as although they did easily secure independence from Mexico, the uprising of the lower castes ended up overpowering them and they offered their sovereignty to whoever beat the Mayan rebels. The Mexicans were the ones who answered. The other breakaway Republics save for Texas also weren't really seceding very earnestly. It was more of a way to stick it to Santa Anna than an actual bid for independence. The only breakaway state other than Texas with a good chance of becoming permanently independent would be the the Rebel Mayan State, later known as Chan Santa Cruz.

In your opinion, what would it take to solidify the various rebellions to the point that they were viable?
 
When I say "gobbled up", I mean morew or less how Texas was annexed. Austin's First Hundred weren't filibusters persay, but weren't all that far off.

Considering that there was ouitright fillibustering in other parts and US designs, I don't think parts of a Balkanized Mexico being annexed up like Texas instead of via war is that much of a stretch.



In your opinion, what would it take to solidify the various rebellions to the point that they were viable?
They'd probably need more of a regional identity to begin with, other than being the collection of people formally pissed at Santa Anna. That, and more serious issues to be concerned with. In Texas's case, they were largely Anglo-settlers opposed to anti-slavery and pro-Catholic laws (in addition to other things, I'm no expert), who wanted to either be part of the US or just get away from the rest of Mexico. Yucatan, actually, had almost as much of a chance as the Texans, in the regard that they considered themselves to be rather easily identifiable from the rest of Mexico, both politically and culturally speaking. The rest of Mexico was more conservative, whereas Yucatan was more liberal and proud of it for example. Yucatan simply sealed it's downfall by relying on the massive Mayan lower-class to win their wars and political struggles, and then consistently renege on almost every deal made with the Mayans.
 
How well populated are Chihuahua and Sonora? If they're sparse enough, the US might gobble 'em up just because it can.
 
Well in strict definition of the term Mexico did balkanize. Guatemala, Belize (later colonized by Britain), Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica where all part of "the First Mexican Empire". I am placing this in quotations because that Empire never really existed except in the minds of a few individuals.
Furthermore you have Texas which seceded and was a country of its own for a period. And also Cuba, Puerto Rico, the Philippines, plus the Caribbean Coast of Venezuela were all part of New Spain.
When placed in perspective further balkanizing Mexico seems hard. However there where a few other attempts. But as mentioned already most didn't have much chance.
Yucatan did secede but it was Mexico who re-conquered it when the elites in Yucatan asked for help. This is the only other "republic" that actually had a chance in becoming its own state. In the case of the Rio Grande Rep. and other "secessionists" movements, as already stated, it was only a matter of sticking it up to Santa Anna or whoever was in charge. The Polkos Rebellion in Puebla for example was a similar situation against the Farias government. And the pro-American Mexican Spy Company was basically a "stick it to the man" company. They would have joined any invader against any Mexican leader just for rebellion (and money's) sake.

Mexico had it quite rough in OTL.
 
If you really wanted to further balkanize Mexico, the easiest and most realistic choice is an early Mayan victory in the Caste War. In 1848 IIRC, they had the capital of Yucatan under siege and almost the rest of the country under control, but they abandoned the siege at the last moment to tend to their harvests. If they laid siege to the city earlier, or didn't leave, Republic of Yucatan would be replaced by a Mayan nation, but it'd still be separate from Mexico as I doubt they'd even try. Even with Yucateco help IOTL, they still took unitl 1933 to clear out the last rebel village.
 
Well in strict definition of the term Mexico did balkanize. Guatemala, Belize (later colonized by Britain), Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica where all part of "the First Mexican Empire". I am placing this in quotations because that Empire never really existed except in the minds of a few individuals.
Furthermore you have Texas which seceded and was a country of its own for a period. And also Cuba, Puerto Rico, the Philippines, plus the Caribbean Coast of Venezuela were all part of New Spain.
When placed in perspective further balkanizing Mexico seems hard. However there where a few other attempts. But as mentioned already most didn't have much chance.

True. Within the Viceroyalty of New Spain there were four audiencias - Mexico, Santo Domingo, Guatemala and Nueva Galicia.
 
If you really wanted to further balkanize Mexico, the easiest and most realistic choice is an early Mayan victory in the Caste War. In 1848 IIRC, they had the capital of Yucatan under siege and almost the rest of the country under control, but they abandoned the siege at the last moment to tend to their harvests. If they laid siege to the city earlier, or didn't leave, Republic of Yucatan would be replaced by a Mayan nation, but it'd still be separate from Mexico as I doubt they'd even try. Even with Yucateco help IOTL, they still took unitl 1933 to clear out the last rebel village.

Another possible way could be through excessive filibustering from the Americans as Wilcoxchar has it in his Union and Liberty TL.

If the Americans get involved in the Texan War, a good ten years earlier to the Mexican American war, Mexico could be forced to accept the independence of the rebel provinces (Texas, Yucatan, Rio Bravo). The rest is a follow by example: Oaxaca follows Yucatan's while a Northern Confederation of Sonora (including Sinaloa), Chihuahua (including Durango) maybe even the Californias could arise following Rio Bravo Rep's example.

The core of Mexico might still survive but in such an extreme case there will likely be two or more parallel governments set up (as it happened in OTL several times) and in the end they might end up splitting Mexico. This is likely to result in a "liberal" government controlling Mexico (including the coast of what is now Guerrero) , Guadalajara, & Tampico and a "conservative" government taking over Puebla Tlaxcala and Veracruz.

In such an extreme case it is likely for the US to annex the northern territories. But the expansionism will also result in Mexico trying hard to fix itself to be fully engulfed and thus not balkanizing.
 
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