Was it possible for Argentina to permanently balkanize? If so, how will it get divided?
How will it affect the rest of South America?
How will it affect the rest of South America?
At a glance, the best shot for a country recognizably as Argentina to balkanize is during the 1820-1862 period. But the problem is that the inner provinces would effectively be landlocked. The Confederacy tried between 1852 and 1862 and couldn't hold it. Keeping Uruguay as part of the United Provinces would avoid this, but how is that achieved while the Portuguese/Brazilians want to keep it?
Assuming, however, that Uruguay remains as part of the United Provinces, we could end up with a "Southern Argentina", encompassing the province of Buenos Aires, eventually the Patagonia if Chile doesn't snatch it sooner and maybe expanding west through the already existing provinces of San Luis, Mendoza and, just maybe Cordoba. Plus a "Northern Argentina" dominated by Uruguay, Santa Fe, Entre Rios and Corrientes and including everything else. Further balkanization isn't viable for the remaining provinces.
However, I wonder if there is enough will to keep the country split. If forty years of intermittent, violent, civil war doesn't split a country, what would?
OTOH, we could say Argentina is already balkanized - after all, the old Viceroyalty of the River Plate included modern Argentina, Bolivia, Paraguay and Uruguay.
You're right that it was only made part of the Viceroyalty of the River Plata to milk it dry. Heck, Buenos Aires pretty much existed just to milk current Bolivia dry.Does anybody actually take Bolivia as part of a Buenos Aires-based Argentina seriously though...? If anything, Bolivia would likely dominate such a union during the early decades of its existence due to being the more populous and economically productive province.
I'm Peruvian, so take my statement on this with a grain of salt but I've never really taken the whole La Plata -> Argentine domination of Bolivia concept seriously. Bolivia was only a part of La Plata to milk Bolivia dry efficiently.