WI:Balkanization or Partitioning the Philippines

WI:Balkanization or Partitioning the Philippines, is it possible for the superpowers to balkanize the philippines or at least partition it.
 
WI:Balkanization or Partitioning the Philippines, is it possible for the superpowers to balkanize the philippines or at least partition it.

Yes it is possible depends when the POD happens. We could see a balkanized Philippines had Americans decides not to colonize the Philippines and the Spaniards leave the country for good in 1899 (one year delay than in OTL).
 
The most realistic balkanization I can see is the Christian north not uniting with the Muslim south; at any rate anything south of Mindanao will be in the Muslim state.

For maximum balkanization fun you can have a separate state for the major ethnolinguistic groups, too. ;)
 
There was debate amongst the Americans as to how much of the Philippines should be annexed after the Spanish-American War. Interestingly, everybody was leaning to just annexing Luzon and some nearby islands until one of McKinley's friends had a conversation with him and convinced him of the necessity of grabbing the whole archipelago.

That gives you Americans - Luzon and adjacent, Spanish - remainder.

In OTL, the Germans wanted an island in the Sulu Archipelago for a naval base, and they almost traded one of their recently-purchased (from Spain) atolls in exchange for Tawi-Tawi. If they offer hard cash to the Spanish in the aftermath of the alt-Spanish-American War where Spain keeps mostly everything but Luzon, you get

Americans - Luzon (and adjacent islands)
Germans - Tawi-Tawi (and possibly more of the Sulu islands)
Spanish - Everything else

That's three separate countries in fairly quick succession:

1914: UK (from Singapore) or France (from Saigon) or Japan (from Formosa, less likely) grabs Tawi-Tawi from small German colonial contingent, administered as separate League of Nations mandate.

1945-ish: US grants independence to Luzon.

1950's - 1970's: UK or France grants independence to its Mandate in the Sulus.

By 1975: Spain grants independence to everything else.
 
There was debate amongst the Americans as to how much of the Philippines should be annexed after the Spanish-American War. Interestingly, everybody was leaning to just annexing Luzon and some nearby islands until one of McKinley's friends had a conversation with him and convinced him of the necessity of grabbing the whole archipelago.

That gives you Americans - Luzon and adjacent, Spanish - remainder.

In OTL, the Germans wanted an island in the Sulu Archipelago for a naval base, and they almost traded one of their recently-purchased (from Spain) atolls in exchange for Tawi-Tawi. If they offer hard cash to the Spanish in the aftermath of the alt-Spanish-American War where Spain keeps mostly everything but Luzon, you get

Americans - Luzon (and adjacent islands)
Germans - Tawi-Tawi (and possibly more of the Sulu islands)
Spanish - Everything else

That's three separate countries in fairly quick succession:

1914: UK (from Singapore) or France (from Saigon) or Japan (from Formosa, less likely) grabs Tawi-Tawi from small German colonial contingent, administered as separate League of Nations mandate.

1945-ish: US grants independence to Luzon.

1950's - 1970's: UK or France grants independence to its Mandate in the Sulus.

By 1975: Spain grants independence to everything else.

I think your scenario might be better.


Luzon or the Island of Manila can also be given to the Brits during the spanish-british war, another thing is if the Norman-like invasion of the Northern Philippines or what is now Luzon area by Brunei did not happen or Bolkiah defeated, I think the Bruneian invasion and domination in the Philippines cleared the way for the Spanish invasion, I think one more state in the philippines aside from maguindanao and sulu but in the northern philippines will resist spanish colonization, this is what I am doing in a timeline of mine.

Yes it is possible depends when the POD happens. We could see a balkanized Philippines had Americans decides not to colonize the Philippines and the Spaniards leave the country for good in 1899 (one year delay than in OTL).

If that happens the northern part of the Philippines would have a Libya like policy(there was an anti-criolo-mestizo sentiment was big that there were genocides during the Philippine revolution)it would either genocide or assimilate the Mestizo-Criollo elite and perhaps most likely the Protestant religion is predominant.
 
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WI:Balkanization or Partitioning the Philippines, is it possible for the superpowers to balkanize the philippines or at least partition it.

Yes, it is possible.

1) Americans must not interfere
2) Dismantle the local Philippine Government headed by Emilio Aguinaldo and the Malolos Congress
3) Surprise attack the standing Filipino Army numbering around 100,000 (much like how the Americans did it in the OTL)
 
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