What if Balhae survives? what will happen to Goryeo and China, could it survive to the present.
WI: Balhae survives
- Thread starter kasumigenx
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PhilippeO
Banned
it will only survive if willing to be vassal of various power in Manchuria. it first become Liao vassal, then Jurchen vassal. Balhae will become poorer version of Korea, less populous and less culturally developed. it will be like Laos to Vietnam, or Savoy to Italy. Internationally it would be irrelevant. Korea/Goryeo/Joseon would feel Balhae as backward cousin that choose to become vassal to barbarian in Manchuria, Balhae people might be viewed as impure, tainted with barbarian blood.
I'm not sure what the exact butterflies would be over a thousand years later, but Central and East Asian history would be significantly different.
This is oversimplifying the situation, and completely ignoring the potential butterflies. If Balhae survived in any form, the Jurchen and the Jin, and by extension, the Manchus, and the Later Jin/Qing, would almost certainly be butterflied away, because several of Balhae's capitals were located in what would later become Jurchen strongholds. The only way that the Jurchens would establish themselves in this scenario would be if Balhae established another base in the Liaodong Peninsula, which would almost be impossible because the Liao invaded Balhae after occupying the area. Another option would be to retreat into central Manchuria, but this would be just as equally unlikely because they would not have a stable population base, and would probably be overrun by the Liao within several generations, if they held out at all.
Although it is true that Balhae was politically isolated from its neighbors, except for occasional contacts with Japan, it was able to establish trade routes with Silla, Japan, the Khitan, and the Tang. Although Silla and Goryeo occasionally paid tribute to various states, they still managed to culturally flourish. For example, Goryeo celadon was prized even in the Song. Also, if Balhae continued to retain autonomy/independence, that does not necessarily mean that Goryeo would have managed to remain free of invasions, along with paying tribute. If the Liao and Goryeo managed to establish a shared border, then the former might have invaded through the area. On the other hand, if there was no shared border, the Liao might have asked for a right of passage and/or troops from Balhae in order to invade the peninsula.
Putting the previous factors aside, one plausible way for Balhae to avoid absorption into the Liao would be Goryeo coming to its neighbor's aid. To illustrate the situation between the states, the founder of Goryeo welcomed Balhae refugees led by the crown prince, while rejecting camels that the Liao had sent by banishing them to an island and starving them. Had he decided to send troops when Balhae requested aid by sending troops, its fall might have been delayed for several decades at the least. Although the scenario as a whole might not be very likely, this also could have led to Goryeo eventually taking over what was left of Balhae, which is contrary to what the OP suggested.
On the other hand, if Balhae had managed to retain a stable government after the chaos, then it might have been able to administer its territory effectively as long as the area was not extremely inhospitable. Although Balhae established numerous capitals in multiple regions in order to administer the population, the reality was that the state was a coalition/confederation of numerous states in the region. Ruling over a smaller area would have also meant that power would have become increasingly centralized. In terms of population, as long as it avoids significant conflict, Balhae's population could grow to about 5 million by 1000 in optimal circumstances. In comparison, Silla, Goryeo, and Joseon's populations did not significantly exceed 10 million for almost a thousand years.
In other words, either Balhae would have moved on after retaining territory in eastern Manchuria, or Goryeo would have gained a foothold in southern/eastern Manchuria. In any case, the butterflies would have been significant enough to affect the Mongols in the 13th century, as the Liao could have been destroyed by a Balhae-Goryeo alliance, and/or the Song could have retained North China, which could mean that the Mongols would be unable to advance into South China.
PhilippeO
Banned
Yes, its oversimplication because my assumption is Balhae will only survive if their willing to become subordinate to Manchuria nomads. Like Elam become subordinate to Iran.
If we consider every butterfly, the thread would be too large. Butterfly from individual that not being born alone will change the world everywhere. Butterfly that directly come from Balhae survival is the one that important.
Not Always, Iranian Empire managed to have capital in Mesopotamia and Elam. Stronger nomadic/semi nomadic empire can have capital/stronghold in vassal territory.
militarily, retaining independence in eastern Manchuria, while having nomadic empire as next door neighbour is very difficult. So i choose Balhae survive as vassal scenario.
Even if Goryeo help, it cannot continously defend all of Balhae, sooner or later other nomad will replace Liao, for Korean power to continue occupy Manchuria against nomads is very difficult militarily.
Never thought about this, interesting butterfly. But even in this scenario Balhae is minor player, butterfly on Goryeo luck against Liao that change China history, not the existence of Balhae.
Balhae could still have survived as a puppet state to either the Liao or Goryeo, or turned into a buffer state between the two regions. I'm not entirely disagreeing with your hypothesis, but I just proposed more viewpoints that I thought were plausible.
I'm not sure what you mean by the "Iranian Empire." If you mean the empires as a whole that were culturally Iranian/Persian and were located around what is now Iran, then I agree, although that has nothing to do with this argument. No other significant state with a different culture was founded in the area after the Achaemenid Empire for more than a thousand years, although the Macedonians conquered the Achaemenid Empire, the Romans briefly seized Mesopotamia, and the Muslims conquered the Sassanid Empire. The Achaemenid Empire was also founded within Elam, or in what is now Iran, not in Mesopotamia.
On the other hand, Balhae was established in (South)eastern Manchuria, or what would later become core Jurchen/Manchu territory. In other words, Balhae would have to be completely nonexistent in order for the Jurchens to establish their own state. If another stable one was located within the same region, there would have been very little reason for the Jurchen to revolt as long as they were not completely oppressed.
I never said that Goryeo would defend all of Balhae. Balhae would have definitely lost the area around the Liaodong peninsula, and also possibly some of the lands north of the Yalu and Tumen rivers. This meant that it would barely survive within Eastern Manchuria, which would coincide with the areas that would later be ruled by the Jurchen. You have to realize that the founder, Dae Joyoung, was probably of Mohe descent, and the state had a stable relationship with the Mohe, which were mostly located within its borders. One of the tribes of the Mohe eventually became the Jurchen decades after Balhae's fall.
That's true, but the fact that Balhae would exist in this scenario would make a huge difference. Goryeo never had the capability to seize more than a small foothold in southern Manchuria in OTL, but had Balhae survived, it might have been possible, although not very likely, for the two to ally and drive the Liao out of Manchuria.
PhilippeO
Banned
Achaemenid, Parthian, and Sassanian.
You are correct. Jurchen descended from Mohe people in Balhae. that surprised me. i always thought that Jurchen originally nomadic people from plains.
my comparison with Elam/Mesopotamia is based on that assumption. settled people that enveloped within larger nomadic empire.
Are you sure about that? My references seem to indicate that the Mohe (the Korean word for them, Malgal, is kinda cooler) vanished from history, probably absorbed into surrounding peoples.
First, let's be frank, it's difficult to piece together the history of nomads, especially those without their own writing system, and when you have to rely on historical accounts of their neighbors. So, of course there are uncertainties even to the present day. I don't think anybody would definitely say they know exactly what happened.
That being said, sources here and here suggest something slightly different from both interpretations: The first one says that the Heishui Mohe became the ancestors of the Jurchens, and the Sumo Mohe became the ancestors of the people of Bohai/Parhae/Balhae/whatever. The second one says that the Heishui Mohe became the ancestors of the Jurchens, but after the collapse of Bohai/Parhae/Balhae, the people in the north of that country became Jurchens. So it would seem that while the Jurchens may have absorbed many people of Bohai/Parhae/Balhae, I think it's incorrect to think that the Jurchens descended entirely from them.
I would personally prefer Malgal as well, but I just thought that more people referred to the group as Mohe. The tribes as a whole were probably much more influenced by Goguryeo than any Chinese state, so it would be reasonable to call it by either name. Korean also tends to retain syllable endings that originally existed in Middle Chinese, although most -t endings shifted to -l endings.
It's probably more complicated than that, though. Balhae was founded on what was Goguryeo territory, and eventually ended up encompassing most of Goguryeo's former possessions. Goguryeo itself was multiethnic, consisting of Buyeo and Yemaek people, along with Mohe, Khitan, Han Chinese, and migrants from China/Central Asia. When Goguryeo fell, the Tang counted about 700,000 households, which would mean a population of roughly 3.5 million. Comparatively speaking, a few were integrated into Tang and Silla, and some soldiers were forcibly removed to remote Chinese regions, but most probably remained within the same region by the time that Balhae was established 30 years later. We have no way of knowing what the ethnic composition of the people who remained were, but we can assume that it was similar to that of Goguryeo.
By the time that Dae Joyoung had moved with his followers from Yingzhou to Dongmo Mountain, he had managed to bring more ethnic groups, such as the Tujue/Dolgwol (Turks). Although he was a Sumo Mohe, some followers, like Geolsa Biu, who was a Baishan Mohe, were from other Mohe tribes. As a result, it is uncertain exactly which Mohe tribes founded Balhae, although as the state grew, it managed to encompass most of the Mohe tribes. In other words, although Balhae was probably composed of several Mohe tribes, among others, and the Heishui Mohe later moved into Southeastern Manchuria, both of the areas that they had ruled ended up encompassing similar areas in Manchuria.
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