I'm only bringing this up because I weekly play a wargame called World in Flames, and I never even consciously considered the following until the guy playing Germany, pulled off a coup not 2 hours ago.
We're at the start of July, 1941, and Germany is ripping and tearing in all directions at the Soviet Union, so far, more or less historical. He started a bit earlier, he's got a bit more force (never went into Greece), but nothing too out of the ordinary.
Except he pulled off a diplo trick, and aligned Persia into the war on his side. And the Persians have 3 divisions of cavalry that can do an end run into Baku, and the Soviets don't have anything in that part of the world to stop them. Best guess is that the earliest Garry will be able to evict them is early to mid September, if nothing goes wrong. We had to end the session because it was getting late, but I'm 99% sure our German player's next move is to start having his Persians commit some atrocities, and try to wreck as much of the oil production as he can do before the Soviets silence his Persians.
So I realize, Persia joining the war is unlikely in the extreme, and the Soviets leaving the border completely unguarded (especially if Persia is showing pro-German leanings) is also unlikely, but let's pretend it happened somehow. Everything else is more or less as per normal history. The Persians put 3 divisions across the border, and are expected to hold Baku and its immediate environs for about 2 months. They're burning and pillaging and just trying to wreck the place. How much will this hurt Soviet oil production? How much will this, and the inability to send Lend-Lease through that part of the world for the foreseeable future, hurt the Soviet war effort?
We're at the start of July, 1941, and Germany is ripping and tearing in all directions at the Soviet Union, so far, more or less historical. He started a bit earlier, he's got a bit more force (never went into Greece), but nothing too out of the ordinary.
Except he pulled off a diplo trick, and aligned Persia into the war on his side. And the Persians have 3 divisions of cavalry that can do an end run into Baku, and the Soviets don't have anything in that part of the world to stop them. Best guess is that the earliest Garry will be able to evict them is early to mid September, if nothing goes wrong. We had to end the session because it was getting late, but I'm 99% sure our German player's next move is to start having his Persians commit some atrocities, and try to wreck as much of the oil production as he can do before the Soviets silence his Persians.
So I realize, Persia joining the war is unlikely in the extreme, and the Soviets leaving the border completely unguarded (especially if Persia is showing pro-German leanings) is also unlikely, but let's pretend it happened somehow. Everything else is more or less as per normal history. The Persians put 3 divisions across the border, and are expected to hold Baku and its immediate environs for about 2 months. They're burning and pillaging and just trying to wreck the place. How much will this hurt Soviet oil production? How much will this, and the inability to send Lend-Lease through that part of the world for the foreseeable future, hurt the Soviet war effort?