WI: Ayatollah Khomeini dead in 1979

abc123

Banned
Some pilots of IIAF offered to Prime Minister Bakhtiar that they will destroy Khomeini's aircraft on his flight to Tehran. Bakhtiar refused the offer. But, what if he accepted and Khomeini's aircraft was destroyed, killing him in the process? Would democratic Iran be result of that?
 
Well, the regime of the Shah is going down no matter what. Without Khomeini, however, there's a very good chance we'd get a socialist regime of some kind instead of the Islamic Revolutionary one we got IOTL. Constitutional Liberals, the Tudeh Party and the Fedaian were all fairly big players.
 

abc123

Banned
Well, the regime of the Shah is going down no matter what. Without Khomeini, however, there's a very good chance we'd get a socialist regime of some kind instead of the Islamic Revolutionary one we got IOTL. Constitutional Liberals, the Tudeh Party and the Fedaian were all fairly big players.

Why socialist regime?
 
I have a keen interest in this, but unfortunately i don't know enough of Iran inner workings at the time to guess who could lead for instance. Maybe the Shah's son or the PM will take over? But whatever new government comes will Iran still be in the US camp, or perhaps they will switch to USSR? That would be very interesting, especially on things like Afghanistan.

Are there any other islamist figures that could replace Khomeini, or would the islamist movement dies a slow death, so you have some kind of dictatorship still, but not islamist? If so, the Iran-Iraq war, if it still happens, will be rather different, as in perhaps there will be a ceasefire much earlier, in 1981 or 1982. With a more intact iranian military, the iraqis will be pushed back earlier, maybe even lose some land in the ceasefire.
 

abc123

Banned
IMO, Iran will not be exactly in pro-US camp, but it will not be so much in against-US camp as OTL.

IMO a civil war between Islamists on one side and Liberals/Socialists on other is very distinct possibility.
 

TinyTartar

Banned
I think Civil War is going to be almost a foregone conclusion. The Islamists won't allow themselves to be ignored anymore, and the Socialists want power, while the army (and a pretty damn good one by Middle Eastern standards, too) lurks in the background.

I think a military government might arise with tepid backing of the Shah's son.
 
Why socialist regime?

They wanted power and they were fairly big players. Iran turning into the the theocratic regime it is today wasn't a foregone conclusion.

I think Civil War is going to be almost a foregone conclusion. The Islamists won't allow themselves to be ignored anymore, and the Socialists want power, while the army (and a pretty damn good one by Middle Eastern standards, too) lurks in the background.

I think a military government might arise with tepid backing of the Shah's son.

I don't know about the Shah's son. The monarchy has been thoroughly discredited by 1979. Nobody wants ths Pahlavis anymore. Now if the the Shah had croaked a bit sooner than he did then his son might have had a chance.
 

abc123

Banned
They wanted power and they were fairly big players. Iran turning into the the theocratic regime it is today wasn't a foregone conclusion.



I don't know about the Shah's son. The monarchy has been thoroughly discredited by 1979. Nobody wants ths Pahlavis anymore. Now if the the Shah had croaked a bit sooner than he did then his son might have had a chance.

I agree, but I was thnking that Tudeh is also pretty sidelined by 1979.
 
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