WI : Axis split in 1939

Good point, but Italy will certainly continue some of its plans of conquests -- Albania, Balkans, etc. She might consider attacking parts of French North Africa after France surrenders since at that point France isn't an English ally. Perhaps Italy will claim that she's 'protecting them from descending into chaotic savagery."

Depend, Rome need to be forcefull enough to extract some compensation for her neutrality but not aggressive or greed enough to provoke a war. Getting her hand on part of the French colonies with an unilateral move can bring excessive problem with Germany that can see her as an intruder in her sphere of influence (OTL Japan occupation of Indochina don't really count as Berlin don't have any use of that place and basically was a move that don't cost her nothing).

Albania will be occupied without problem as OTL, and from there some further concession from Greece are possible...always keeping in mind that the place was seen as a British client so they don't want piss off too much Churchill.
When the URSS start to be more aggressive in the balkans and Germany don't move a finger (for now), the idea of a neutral balkan block lead by Italy and supported by the allies will be seen as good idea
 
I should really check, but wasn't the Spring '41 rasputitsa pretty damn long and bad? The "without Italy Germany would have beaten Russia" argument is banded around a lot, but I seem to remember that, Balkan adventurism or not, Barbarossa couldn't have started earlier - not without the initial advance being slowed down to a muddy slog.
 
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