WI: Axis Spain after an Allied victory?

[Just a Rube]

So, there are zillions of Axis-wanks where Spain joins the Axis for no good reason. They generally founder on the problem that Franco had zero interest in joining in another major war.

This thread isn't about that; handwave away Franco dying in June 1940 and being replaced with someone fanatically pro-Nazi, if you wish. The POD doesn't matter, and can involve ASBs if you want. The key is, the Allies still win the war (sorry, but Spain isn't THAT important), and now it's time for the country to rebuild.

Assumptions:
1) The Canaries were occupied by the Allies sometime after the declaration of war; Spanish Morocco fell during the North Africa campaign, Spanish Guinea somewhat earlier.
2) The Western Allies invaded Spain in '44, either from France across the Pyrenees after Overlord, or through a separate, Dragoon-style invasion of the Mediterranean Coast.
3) Once the Allies have entered Spain and the writing is on the wall, Portugal declares for the Allies.

Now that all that is out of the way, comes the real question: what happens to Spain afterwards? Too many of the Republicans were tied to closely to Moscow for the Western Allies to be comfortable with them in charge (to say nothing of what Salazar would think). The wounds of the Civil War are still lingering. The various remaining Spanish colonies are also a concern.

So, who governs, and what does Spain look like?

 

[Monter]

The Bourbons are probably restored, they aren't Falagists enough to be associated to Franco, neither USSR-leaned to be associated with the former Republic.

The only territorial change to speak of is Portugal getting Olivenza.

 

[Just a Rube]

The Bourbons are probably restored, they aren't Falagists enough to be associated to Franco, neither USSR-leaned to be associated with the former Republic.

The only territorial change to speak of is Portugal getting Olivenza.

I assume the colonies would either be granted independence or given to one of the Allied powers, on the model of the Italian colonies?

 

[Napoleonrules]

I assume the colonies would either be granted independence or given to one of the Allied powers, on the model of the Italian colonies?

Interesting butterfly of that scenario- Spanish Morocco, or at least Ifni and Spanish Sahara become independent and you don't have OTL Morocco and Mauritania splitting what is Western Sahara and the problems we have with Moroccan occupation and the Polisario Front. I see when Morocco does become independent possibly an invasion of Spanish Morocco, Tangiers, Ceuta, and Melilla, and probably even Ifni but doubt they go for Western Sahara as it could have Portuguese, French, and/or British involvement from a trusteeship like Libya or Somalia.

 

[Simon]

Interesting butterfly of that scenario - Spanish Morocco, or at least Ifni and Spanish Sahara become independent...

Ifni was a tiny exclave there's no way they could survive as an independent entity. As for Spanish Morocco I think they'd be added to Morocco, who France effectively dominate, rather than being let go their own way - they raised colonial troops who fought and it brings the area in the French sphere of influence without blatant self-enrichment on France's part.

I see when Morocco does become independent possibly an invasion of Spanish Morocco, Tangiers, Ceuta, and Melilla...

If Spain were an Axis power then just as other nations in Europe had their borders tidied up and territories exchanged I honestly can't see them being allowed to keep any of these. France would be on them like a shot demanding that they, and likely Cape Juby, be 'rightfully returned' to Moroccan, and therefore their, control. The British would no doubt also make demands of any new government such as acknowledging and reaffirming Britain's ownership of Gibraltar plus probably settling issues like naval borders and land border crossings.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Allies would probablly organize a free Spain government. The Brit SO & US OSS would support that by organizing support for rebels in Spain. Sometime in 1943 the US starts equipping a small Free Spanish field army, which invades Spain. Caught between rebels & a invading Allied army the Spanish Facist government collapses.

 

[Father Maryland]

Would spain even keep its ancient enclaves in Northern Morocco such as ceuta and Mellila.

 

[Niko Malaka]

Allies would probablly organize a free Spain government. The Brit SO & US OSS would support that by organizing support for rebels in Spain. Sometime in 1943 the US starts equipping a small Free Spanish field army, which invades Spain. Caught between rebels & a invading Allied army the Spanish Facist government collapses.

They wouldn't even need to organize a government of a Free Spain. That government already existed in Mexico and was desperate for international recognition. It was pro-allies and explicitly excluded the communists.

 

[history nerd]

Spain joining the Axis is an extremely interesting POD despite it's implausibility. I imagine that if they do join the war Hitler attempts to attack Gibraltar... (wasn't there some talk of this at the time?) If they do I wonder if they ever turn on the Soviets. With a less expansive eastern bloc I wonder if the allies will be as paranoid about Soviet ties among the Republicans.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

If we assume Axis Spain in 1940 doesn't mean the British drop out and the Allies still win, then likely they restore the Republic and find a lot of help from anti-Nationalist Spaniards during the invasion of Spain. Depending on how things go during the war the real fear like in Italy is that Spain may try and go communist. Of course given how the Soviets acted in Spain during the CW, that may not be possible either. Likely they get a lot of aid money to rebuild and NATO bases. The monarchy is likely to be done away with and the Catholic church in Spain might lose A LOT of influence as a result of their activities under Franco.

 

[Clandango]

The Republicans had greater ties to the French and British until the Soviets murdered those who weren't Stalinist.

 

[Just a Rube]

What do Spanish internal politics look like? How are the Catalan and Basque Questions treated (and how do those two groups view the central government in a world where Francoists ruled for only a few years rather than decades)? What happens to the various Republican exiles (and the guerrilla groups, some of whom were still fighting during the war)? How does an anti-Fascist Spain affect the events in Portugal?

How do Spanish view the Civil War in the aftermath of WWII; do Republican atrocities get downplayed to try and build up a national myth of resistance to the foreign-backed Fascists (a la France post-war, where "everybody was in the Resistance"), or do Republican atrocities get emphasized to build up anti-Communist feeling as the Cold War heats up?

Does Spain have to pay reparations (like the other Axis nations)? who do they go to, and how does this affect the Spanish economy? Conversely, Spain is presumably a recipient of Marshall Plan money (or whatever TTL's equivalent is) from the US.

 

[Francisco Cojuanco]

If we assume Axis Spain in 1940 doesn't mean the British drop out and the Allies still win, then likely they restore the Republic and find a lot of help from anti-Nationalist Spaniards during the invasion of Spain. Depending on how things go during the war the real fear like in Italy is that Spain may try and go communist. Of course given how the Soviets acted in Spain during the CW, that may not be possible either. Likely they get a lot of aid money to rebuild and NATO bases. The monarchy is likely to be done away with and the Catholic church in Spain might lose A LOT of influence as a result of their activities under Franco.

On the other hand, you have the example of Italy. Perhaps the moribund CEDA provides the core for a centrist Christian Democratic party, complete with CIA funding?

 

[Luminous]

How built up are the Spanish ports, and during what part of the war do they join? Would invading into Ifni/Spanish Morocco be a reasonable idea to start the North African campaigns, or would invading somewhere else? ...If I'm correct, was Tangier still a neutral zone, or had it been captured during the war? Could that be a landing ground?

 

[Alcsentre Calanice]

The Republicans had greater ties to the French and British until the Soviets murdered those who weren't Stalinist.

And until the French and British did nothing to help the republic.

 

[celt]

They wouldn't even need to organize a government of a Free Spain. That government already existed in Mexico and was desperate for international recognition. It was pro-allies and explicitly excluded the communists.

Indeed, from what I gather the Republicans were really just held hostage by the Communists during the Civil War, because of the lack of another external supplier other than the USSR and the carting off of Spanish gold reserves to Moscow early on. Was there not a coup against the Communists in the closing days of the war? Do you think the exile Basque government would declare independence in this situation? They did have thousands of armed fighters in South West France and were anti-Communist, so maybe they would get American support.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

How built up are the Spanish ports, and during what part of the war do they join? Would invading into Ifni/Spanish Morocco be a reasonable idea to start the North African campaigns, or would invading somewhere else? ...If I'm correct, was Tangier still a neutral zone, or had it been captured during the war? Could that be a landing ground?

Ports were ok. some were larger, some smaller capacity. Trick would be transportation within Spain. Its railroads were not as extensive as in France or Belgium, nor did they have the same capacity per km of track. They were not in good shape after three years of Depression & war. a Allied army marching to the Pyrenees, or to Madrid would have to bring extra railway capacity. The automotive roads were not suitable for a Brit or US mechanized army either.

Best course for the Allies is to seize the region adjacent to the straits, & make sure Portugal & its Wolfram or Tungsten mines are secure. Let the Spanish settle their own differences. If the Germans choose to send Panzer divisions to Iberia thats fine, every division there is one less in Normandy Marsailles, or Italy.

 

[Niko Malaka]

Indeed, from what I gather the Republicans were really just held hostage by the Communists during the Civil War, because of the lack of another external supplier other than the USSR and the carting off of Spanish gold reserves to Moscow early on. Was there not a coup against the Communists in the closing days of the war? Do you think the exile Basque government would declare independence in this situation? They did have thousands of armed fighters in South West France and were anti-Communist, so maybe they would get American support.

Both the PNV (Basque Nationalists) and ERC (catalan nationalists) were included in the Republican Government in Exile. even the CNT was. Everybody except the PCE, in the spirit of Casado's coup against Negrín in the last days of the war (the one you mention) All political formations had people fighting in southern France with the hope that after París and Berlín the allies would turn to Barcelona and Madrid. But it was the communists who were able to capitalice those forces (in a way, because due to the war the structures of the communist party in southern France worked totally in an independent way without any contact with Moscow and in a more open way than communist ortodoxy, which once the communications were re-established earned them a purge) Now, the explicit support of the WAllies to the Mexico's government could easily change things, funding a structure, helping men to reach the combat areas etc.

You have also the spanish volunteers in the Free French Army that fought with the Leclerc Column in OTL, as the 9th Regiment de Marche du Tchad. They could become the backbone, with additions from the exile (full of people with military experience) for a Free Spain Army

 

[celt]

Both the PNV (Basque Nationalists) and ERC (catalan nationalists) were included in the Republican Government in Exile. even the CNT was. Everybody except the PCE, in the spirit of Casado's coup against Negrín in the last days of the war (the one you mention) All political formations had people fighting in southern France with the hope that after París and Berlín the allies would turn to Barcelona and Madrid. But it was the communists who were able to capitalice those forces (in a way, because due to the war the structures of the communist party in southern France worked totally in an independent way without any contact with Moscow and in a more open way than communist ortodoxy, which once the communications were re-established earned them a purge) Now, the explicit support of the WAllies to the Mexico's government could easily change things, funding a structure, helping men to reach the combat areas etc.

You have also the spanish volunteers in the Free French Army that fought with the Leclerc Column in OTL, as the 9th Regiment de Marche du Tchad. They could become the backbone, with additions from the exile (full of people with military experience) for a Free Spain Army

I thought the Basques had their own government in exile in Paris post-war, under José Antonio Aguirre? Might the more religious Basques now try and strike out on their own instead of sticking with the secular Republicans, with the nationalist threat gone?

 

[Canadian Empire]

I remember reading somewhere that a small part of Spain became anarchist during the civl war. With all the choices being bad, it might be possible for Spain to go full anarcho-syidicalist state.