Hello all, first time posting here so forgive any ignorance on my part.
Anyway,
I've been reading about the Italian Campaign, which kicked off with the invasion of Sicily. Towards the end of the fight for the island, not insignificant German and Italian forces were evacuated to the Italian mainland via the Strait of Messina (August 11-17).
As per Wikipedia:
In 2004, Tomlin wrote that the Italians evacuated 62,182 men, 41 guns and 227 vehicles with the loss of only one motor raft and the train ferry Carridi, which was scuttled when Allied troops entered Messina.[120] The Germans evacuated some 52,000 troops (including 4,444 wounded), 14,105 vehicles, 47 tanks, 94 guns, 1,100 tons of ammunition, and about 20,700 tons of gear and stores.[121]
Watching documentaries and looking around the internet, I've come across 3 separate reasons for the Allies being unable to stop the withdrawal:
1) Allies didn't recognize the withdrawal for what it was. (lost/forgot my source for this particular claim)
2) Allies saw the withdrawal, but were unable to stop it due to the high concentration of AAA and unfavorable sea conditions precluding any naval blockade. Again, wiki:
The German and Italian evacuation schemes proved highly successful. The Allies were not able to prevent the orderly withdrawal nor effectively interfere with transports across the Strait of Messina. The narrow straits were protected by 120 heavy and 112 light anti-aircraft guns.[115] The resulting overlapping gunfire from both sides of the strait was described by Allied pilots as worse than the Ruhr, making daylight air attacks highly hazardous and generally unsuccessful.[104] Night attacks were less hazardous and there were times when air attack was able to delay and even suspend traffic across the straits but when daylight returned, the Axis were able to clear the backlog from the previous night.[116] Nor was naval interdiction any more practicable. The straits varied from 2–6 miles (3.2–9.7 km) wide and were covered by artillery up to 24 centimeters (9.4 in) in caliber. This, combined with the hazards of a 6 knots (11 km/h; 6.9 mph) current, made risking warships unjustifiable and fear that Italian warships were preparing to attack the Straits of Messina in a suicide run.[115][117][118]
3) Monty and Patton could have 'been more daring' and stopped it but were too focused on seeing who had the biggest... military prowess.
https://youtu.be/KeeMBlC8RIk?t=42m33s
So my questions are
A.) Why did the allies fail to interdict the Axis evacuation in OTL
and
B.) If the Allies DO stop this evacuation, how does this affect the Italian campaign and the war in general?
B.1 With no place left to run, do the Axis forces on Sicily surrender or try to slog it out?
B.2 With less Axis forces on the Italian mainland, do the Allies progress there faster and farther when they do invade? Does Hitler need to pull more troops from the East to plug Italy?
Looking forward to hearing everyone's thoughts!
