WI: Axis Cold War Space Race?

Let's say WWII goes differently. Germany conquers the Soviet Union (but still can't crack the British Isles), while America still beats Japan in the Pacific.

In this scenario, how would the Space Race proceed during an Axis Cold War?

I predict that Wernher von Braun will stay in Germany, while Sergey Korolev will manage to escape to the United States in the confusion and spearhead their rocketry efforts. The Germans will have a bit of a headstart since they still have their V-2 missiles, though it stands to reason that the CIA or MI6 could steal a copy the plans, and if not that, a defector will bring the plans with him.

In my prediction, the Germans, having conquered the USSR, use Baikonur as their launch site, while the United States still uses Cape Canaveral. Since the two lead rocketry scientists are now on opposite sides, I couldn't predict what the early rockets would look like, though I do predict that, for Germany, later rockets, spacecraft, satellites, and probes would look closer to the Soviet and Russian rockets in OTL. Same with the American space program (ie Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo would still happen).

I predict that the Space Race will end the same way as it did in OTL: Apollo 11 lands in the Sea of Tranquility on July 20, 1969. The first man on the moon depends on whether or not the Apollo 1 fire (or a similar incident) occurs. If it did, Neil Armstrong is still the first man on the moon. If not, Gus Grissom is (Deke Slayton did say that he would have been first had the fire not occurred).

After that, though, the Germans are very persistant in developing space weaponry, and they manage to land a man on the moon in 1971. After Germany launches a space station in lunar orbit, America responds by continuing the Apollo program, launching Lunarlab and building a lunar base. In the 1980s, America launches the SDI program, which includes the Space Shuttle (originally intended to supplant Apollo, but ultimately becoming a support craft), Space Station Freedom, and multiple "space guns" that can intercept ICBMs. Rumors also crop up that the United States has launched a classified space station called the "Manned Weapons Platform", which allegedly carries reentry vehicles, and was launched for pinpoint strikes that can't be easily intercepted.

How do you think the Space Race would go in an Axis Cold War?
 
I predict that Wernher von Braun will stay in Germany, while Sergey Korolev will manage to escape to the United States in the confusion and spearhead their rocketry efforts.

Korolev was in the Gulag during the war (first Kolyma gold mine, then a technical prison in Moscow), so I suspect escape is not very likely. Even if he does get away to the US, without the equivalent of von Braun's OTL experience in building large rockets the US are unlikely to promote him over their own rocketry experts. Von Braun staying in Germany working for their rocketry programme seems likely.


The Germans will have a bit of a headstart since they still have their V-2 missiles, though it stands to reason that the CIA or MI6 could steal a copy the plans, and if not that, a defector will bring the plans with him.

The Germans have a massive head-start. Both the US and USSR IOTL spent several years firing captured and rebuilt V2s to learn how to build large liquid rockets. Espionage will help, but nowhere near as much as captured hardware, experts and manufacturing plants did IOTL, so expect early rocket developments to take about twice as long outside Germany ITTL as the West learns the lessons the Germans have long since solved.

In my prediction, the Germans, having conquered the USSR, use Baikonur as their launch site, while the United States still uses Cape Canaveral.

Very unlikely Baikonur would be chosen. IOTL it was selected by the Red Army in the 1950s for the specific reason that it enabled them to position radio guidance facilities downrange across the Soviet Far East to correct the course of the R7 ICBM. As it turned out, this technique was quickly superseded. Aside from that, all Baikonur offers is lots of space, but at a cost of very poor connectivity and no existing support facilities. From a German perspective it would be much too far removed from their metropole, with long supply lines exposed to partisan sabotage. Far more likely is they stick with Peenemunde on the Baltic, or at a push move to the Caucuses, which was the USSR's second choice after Baikonur, giving similar room downrange for dumping rocket stages but with decent transport links and infrastructure close to hand (not to mention beaches). ITTL it would also be in an area likely to be under firm German control, due to the strategic oil facilities nearby.

I predict that the Space Race will end the same way as it did in OTL: Apollo 11 lands in the Sea of Tranquility on July 20, 1969. The first man on the moon depends on whether or not the Apollo 1 fire (or a similar incident) occurs. If it did, Neil Armstrong is still the first man on the moon. If not, Gus Grissom is (Deke Slayton did say that he would have been first had the fire not occurred).

Not a chance. Without von Braun driving it, Apollo would be completely different, if it were proposed at all. The set up is so different from OTL that I doubt there's much chance of the butterflies letting Armstrong, Grissom or anyone else keeping the same roles as OTL (up to and including JFK). Rather, I'd expect to see the Space Race kicked off early, with a German ICBM in the early-mid '50s, with a US version not far behind. Assuming the US hasn't nuked the Nazis into submission with long range bombers before that point.
 
A location closer to the equator is an advantage.

So German East Africa, Kamurun, or Togo if they got them back at the peace treaty. Or perhaps Italian Libya, Ethiopia, somewhere they've conquered in the Mid East, or the southern USSR.
 
If von Braun continues his work in Germany, then more advanced models of the Aggregat rocket family will likely be developed. The A9/A10 rocket would fly by the late 1940s and give the Nazis the ability to attack the mainland United States. The A11 stage, when paired with the A9/A10, would allow for a small payload of about 300 kg to be placed into orbit. By the early 1950s the A12 would be flown, giving the Nazis their first true orbital launch vehicle. The A12, paired with the A9/A10/A11 stages, could have carried up to 10 tonnes of payload. The Nazis would be able to launch an artificial satellite into orbit by the early 1950s, followed by the first manned orbital mission by the late 1950s. The Aggregat family would also serve as the basis for ICBMs, although the initial missiles would probably carry conventional or chemical warheads before the Nazis develop nuclear weapons. Going into the 1960s, the Nazis would probably have the capability to launch a space station (akin to Salyut or Skylab) into orbit and send an Apollo-esque manned mission to the Moon.

If Eugen Sänger keeps working in Germany, then the Nazis might develop their own space shuttle similar to the two-stage spaceplane Sänger proposed in OTL.

Peenemünde would probably be the initial launch site for Nazi Germany's space program, although eventually they might want to establish a site closer to the Equator. If they have any African colonies, such as if they regain Kamerun or Ostafrika, or if they acquire the Belgian Congo, then they'll have a prime equatorial launch center. Otherwise somewhere in the Mediterranean or the Caucasus would have to do.

The United States would try to catch up with the Nazis, and while they would lag behind at first due to a lack of experience with liquid-fuel rockets, I think the U.S. would eventually develop a space program on par with the Nazi space program, and perhaps surpassing it in the long term. Cape Canaveral is probably chosen as the primary launch site as in OTL, although if the U.S. acquires Dutch and French Guiana then those territories would work better because of their equatorial location.

The United Kingdom might develop its own space program out of national prestige and to keep up with the other superpowers. British Guiana would be an excellent launch site because of its location near the Equator.

The Soviet Union would have a difficult time developing a space program in this timeline. Even if Korolev and other skilled rocket engineers survive and are allowed to work, I think a USSR that was defeated by the Axis Powers and lost all of its territory west of the Urals (including its best agricultural land and many vital industrial centers) would have far more significant priorities to address (e.g. strengthening military defenses, resettling millions of displaced citizens, avoiding famine, rebuilding industry, ethnic separatism and potential civil war). Eventually, if they sort out their problems, the Soviets might try to develop a space program. But by then the Americans and Germans would be far ahead.

There would definitely be a push to militarize space. You would probably see military spaceplanes, military space stations, and orbital weapons platforms developed or at least attempted. Of course, such endeavors would be very expensive. There is also the problem that space warfare could clutter low-Earth orbit with debris, rendering it unusable for both the Allies and the Axis until the debris falls back to Earth or is cleaned up with something like a laser broom.
 

Archibald

Banned
Very unlikely Baikonur would be chosen. IOTL it was selected by the Red Army in the 1950s for the specific reason that it enabled them to position radio guidance facilities downrange across the Soviet Far East to correct the course of the R7 ICBM. As it turned out, this technique was quickly superseded.

How interesting.
 
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