WI authoritarian Spain or Portugal try to get the Bomb?

Thande

Donor
Is it possible that Franco's Spain and/or Portugal under the New State might have tried to create or obtain nuclear weapons? Perhaps in a situation where they are treated more as pariah states by the USA and democratic Europe and cooperate with South Africa's programme, as Israel is speculated to have done in OTL?
 

Thande

Donor
I now notice on a map of WMD proliferation Spain is marked as having had a nuclear programme at one point, but I can't find any details on it.
 
Yes, Franco had a nuclear program, but, in short, the international pression made him give up (except for the civilian part of the program) There is some information about it in spanish, I'll summarize it tomorrow (now I'm going to bed, sorry) if you want.

Cheers.
 

Goldstein

Banned
Reversing the challenge, a Francoist Spain not being treated as a parih would have undoubtly benefitted the developement of a nuclear program.

There are, of course, secret history conspiracies that say Spain already has the bomb, just the general public doesn't know, but I sincerely don't buy it.
 
Portugal might be intresting, especially if the build the facilities required for missles and nuclear material in thier colonies...
 

Sachyriel

Banned
Maybe France gets really distrustful of Britain having the bomb, gets it's own and decides the Continent needs more nuclear-armed states to balance that Airstrip off the coast, then uses Spain to have a state with the bomb backing it up in small disputes? :confused:
 

The Vulture

Banned
US would probably try to court either power, following a "better dead than Red" strategy.

How about delivery systems, though? If the idea of the bomb is as an anti-Soviet weapon (I assume), do they have anything the Soviets wouldn't just shoot out of the sky?

If Portugal gets the bomb and still has colonial problems, might they use the threat of it to hold on to their overseas colonies?
 
Considering the economical trouble both nations had, it's going to take them a while before they have them.
Didn't it take South Africa about 20 years to get a handfull of nukes?

If so, it's going to take Portugal probably a lot longer, with all the cost of hanging on to it's colonial empire and it's imploding economy, with Spain possibly a bit shorter.

Maybe Spain has a nuclear weapon just as Juan Carlos I becomes king? :D
Would probably mean a quick end to it's owning nukes.
 
Why would the Spanish or Portugese want nuclear weapons?

Strategically, there's not much reason for either to try to obtain them in a Cold War situation.
Post '45, Franco knows he doesn't have much to fear from the Allies and after 1960 the French are his nuclear shield against the Soviets and will be much better at it then the Spanish ever will.
The Portugese are in pretty much the same situation, or even less able to be threatened, apart from their colonies in Africa.

None of both is threatened in a way as the South-Africans were by Soviets encroaching them, or the Israeli's by the Arab states.
 
Why would the Spanish or Portugese want nuclear weapons?

Strategically, there's not much reason for either to try to obtain them in a Cold War situation.
Post '45, Franco knows he doesn't have much to fear from the Allies and after 1960 the French are his nuclear shield against the Soviets and will be much better at it then the Spanish ever will.
The Portugese are in pretty much the same situation, or even less able to be threatened, apart from their colonies in Africa.

None of both is threatened in a way as the South-Africans were by Soviets encroaching them, or the Israeli's by the Arab states.

You'd have to worsen relations between the countries and their neighbors. Maybe France doesn't get over the fact that they have a fascist country south of them so the Spanish feel the need to have a nuclear deterrence. Or have an Inda/Pakistan situation between Spain and Portugal for some reason I can't come up with.

Then again, being a nuclear state offers a lot of prestige and owning a nuclear bomb is always an incredible strategic advantage in the political arena, so you don't always need a military reason for it.
 

Thande

Donor
One way is to get an idealistic American president (presumably during detente) who uses rhetoric about severing ties with anti-communist dictatorships and supporting democracy worldwide. He might actually not mean it much and perhaps only be making a point about a particular place (e.g. South Africa) but the Spanish and Portuguese leadership might be paranoid and frightened enough of such rhetoric to start seeking nukes as a guarantor against any American interventionism.

There is a recent precedent for this. After President Bush came out with similar speeches of this type - even though it's obvious that the US was not going to take them literally, as they still enjoyed good relationships with authoritarian dictatorships like Saudi Arabia and (then) Pakistan - it nonetheless terrified the Burmese generals into building an entire new capital to be less vulnerable in the case of an Iraq-style invasion.
 
Is it possible that Franco's Spain and/or Portugal under the New State might have tried to create or obtain nuclear weapons? Perhaps in a situation where they are treated more as pariah states by the USA and democratic Europe and cooperate with South Africa's programme, as Israel is speculated to have done in OTL?

Israel, I could understand: that's a matter of survival. But what lead either or both of those nations whose glory days are clearly centuries in the past to pursue nuclear weapons? A desperate bid to be taken semi-seriously? A dictator's desire to have something akin to the newest toys?
 
Israel, I could understand: that's a matter of survival. But what lead either or both of those nations whose glory days are clearly centuries in the past to pursue nuclear weapons? A desperate bid to be taken semi-seriously? A dictator's desire to have something akin to the newest toys?

Spain and especially Portugal still had quite a colonial empire.
Maybe to protect that from either new nations (with possibly Soviet/Cuban support to take them military more serious).

There is a recent precedent for this. After President Bush came out with similar speeches of this type - even though it's obvious that the US was not going to take them literally, as they still enjoyed good relationships with authoritarian dictatorships like Saudi Arabia and (then) Pakistan - it nonetheless terrified the Burmese generals into building an entire new capital to be less vulnerable in the case of an Iraq-style invasion.

Interesting. I thought the new capital had more to do with a fortuneteller and preventing the population from overthrowing the junta.

Although it sure could be true. The speeches of Bush after 9/11 also scared Khaddafi into giving up his nuclear program and cooperating with the West.
 
Supposably, Francisco Franco HAD wanted to develop nuclear weapons as a deterent from Morocco and Algeria moving against his African possessions. However, he did not have the money, and he did not have access to the proper technology. Portugal is in an even worse position.

In order to make this viable is for France to move forward with its initial proposal for a joint-development with Italy and West Germany, and also include Spain. Once they develop the weapon, arguably sooner then France did historically, Spain will then be able to create its own arsenal. Portugal on the other hand would need aid from Franco (quite literally it might mean them giving them the technology). There reason would be to hold onto their colonies, and to use them on concentrations of rebels; however, would they have the political will to give the go-ahead? Likely not. They would be compared to the regime of Adolf Hitler for such actions, in order to achieve a cause that is now looked down upon.

Therefore, you need some heavy changes to history in order for them both to develop such weapons.
 
Supposably, Francisco Franco HAD wanted to develop nuclear weapons as a deterent from Morocco and Algeria moving against his African possessions. However, he did not have the money, and he did not have access to the proper technology. Portugal is in an even worse position.

Well, he did not have the money on the post war years. He DID build one nuclear power station (and started construcion on another six wich were finished after his death) on the late sixties-seventies.
The question is if by then it would be worth for Spain or Portugal to go a step further and get the bomb.
 
Look at the trouble Iran has had in its longrange effort to build nuclear weapons. Spain wasn't in much better shape under Franco and didn't have huge oil fields like Iran. And what use would the weapons be? I guess the Portuguese could have used them post-Salazar as a threat to keep Indonesia out of former Portuguese Timor, but by that time the Portuguese had simply walked away from their "empire."
 
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