WI: Austrian victory in War of the Bavarian Succession

Pretty much was it says in the title. What is the impact if Austria were to prove victorious in acquiring the Duchy of Bavaria in the War of the Bavarian Succession?
 
I could see an Austria more orientated towards Germany rather than the Balkans. Perhaps an eventual unification of Germany by Austria is on the table?
 

Vitruvius

Donor
It would be a major boost to Joseph II since the Bavarian exchange was his idea. I'm not sure that Bavaria would readily submit to his centralizing policies but certainly Bavarian recalcitrance would not be on the same level as the rebellion that occurred in the Austrian Netherlands. Success would also help to restore Austrian prestige and primacy in the HRE, proving that the Emperor can still throw his weight around and get his way in Germany, at least to a greater extent than OTL. So probably this means Joseph might have a little more success, I doubt he'd ever be able to push through all his reforms but at the very least his centralizing initiatives could permanently bind Bavaria to Austria. I could also see Austria deciding not to take its final slice of Poland in any further partitions, there would be a lack of interest on the part of an Austria now more focused on Germany and Prussia could demand a larger share as a quid pro quo for accepting the annexation of Bavaria.

Hard to say how that plays out during the French revolution which almost certainly still occurs. On the one hand the Wittelsbach Netherlands-Rhineland-Palatinate state is probably in no position to resist the French. But then again Austria may be stronger and there probably isn't a rebellion on going in the southern Netherlands that can be exploited by Republican France.
 
Austria acquires Bavaria, increasing their position in Southern Germany AND increases the amount of Geman speakers within the Habsburg empire, giving them more of a plurality vis a vis the Magyars (the second larger group in the empire). Bavaria won't make Germans a majority, but it'll give them an edge in plurality.

The Bavarian Wittelsbachs trade Bavaria for the Austria Netherlands. These lands are further augmented as the various lines of the Wittelsbach dynasty go extinct, which I do not believe we cannot stop with such a late POD. By the late 1780s, the Wittelsbach dynasty reigns over Belgium, Julich, Berg, Zweibrucken, and the Palatinate, a string of wealth territories well suited for trade (and later) industrialization. As an add boon, the war may end in favor by forcing the Dutch to open the Scheldt to Belgian trade. During Spanish and Austrian times, it had been barred to advantage of advantage. Holland may receive a run for her money.

This victory gives Joseph a huge propaganda coup, and may very well give him the needed prestige needed to reform (and succeed) at home. IOTL, his reign was a string of faiures and although succeeded by a fairly liberal brother, he was forced to undue everything to appease the pillars of the monarchy. With victory in Bavaria and without Belgium, Joseph will certainly have a free hand in his attempts to reform serfdom, extend religious tolerance, and limiting the power of the church. Victoria in Bavaria may make things go to his head, but perhaps a few close calls causes him to scale certain things down -- emancipating the serfs but not requiring them to pay for freedom in cash, ect. When Joseph II dies heirless (this POD is unlikely to find him a wife and get him an heir), Leopold Ii can continue his tradition.

The Wittelsbach domains will be the most interesting. Depending how Europe as a whole (esp. the impending French Revolution) plays out, they are in an interesting position. It'd be interesting see the Wittelsbachs reigning over a United Netherlands or a proto-Belgium that includes pieces of the Rhineland.
 
Austria acquires Bavaria, increasing their position in Southern Germany AND increases the amount of Geman speakers within the Habsburg empire, giving them more of a plurality vis a vis the Magyars (the second larger group in the empire). Bavaria won't make Germans a majority, but it'll give them an edge in plurality.

The Bavarian Wittelsbachs trade Bavaria for the Austria Netherlands. These lands are further augmented as the various lines of the Wittelsbach dynasty go extinct, which I do not believe we cannot stop with such a late POD. By the late 1780s, the Wittelsbach dynasty reigns over Belgium, Julich, Berg, Zweibrucken, and the Palatinate, a string of wealth territories well suited for trade (and later) industrialization. As an add boon, the war may end in favor by forcing the Dutch to open the Scheldt to Belgian trade. During Spanish and Austrian times, it had been barred to advantage of advantage. Holland may receive a run for her money.

This victory gives Joseph a huge propaganda coup, and may very well give him the needed prestige needed to reform (and succeed) at home. IOTL, his reign was a string of faiures and although succeeded by a fairly liberal brother, he was forced to undue everything to appease the pillars of the monarchy. With victory in Bavaria and without Belgium, Joseph will certainly have a free hand in his attempts to reform serfdom, extend religious tolerance, and limiting the power of the church. Victoria in Bavaria may make things go to his head, but perhaps a few close calls causes him to scale certain things down -- emancipating the serfs but not requiring them to pay for freedom in cash, ect. When Joseph II dies heirless (this POD is unlikely to find him a wife and get him an heir), Leopold Ii can continue his tradition.

The Wittelsbach domains will be the most interesting. Depending how Europe as a whole (esp. the impending French Revolution) plays out, they are in an interesting position. It'd be interesting see the Wittelsbachs reigning over a United Netherlands or a proto-Belgium that includes pieces of the Rhineland.

That would make an interesting timeline indeed.

I agree that the French revolution in some form would still occur - although it might start in some other country and spill over to France ITTL. Some form of revolutionary wars are likely as well - and thanks to the French economic and demographic power they'll expand in any future time of crisis.

Now assuming everything works out as IOTL, including Napoleon and the Congress of Vienna, the Wittelsbachs would be reinstalled. They'd likely get additional territories along the Rhine, maybe the Ruhr, leading to a German plurality in their domains. The Austrians, on the other side, will gain territories around Bavaria, and certainly get Vorderösterreich back - thus Freiburg is the most western Austrian city.

The consequence is that two large and important countries with large non-German populations will be heavily involved in German unification - should it happen ITTL.
 

Razgriz 2K9

Banned
You know, this is probably a stupid question, and I know everyone would be thinking that, but what was Joseph II's obsession over Bavaria? And how long has Austria laid claim to the Electorate of Bavaria?
 
That would make an interesting timeline indeed.

I agree that the French revolution in some form would still occur - although it might start in some other country and spill over to France ITTL. Some form of revolutionary wars are likely as well - and thanks to the French economic and demographic power they'll expand in any future time of crisis.

Now assuming everything works out as IOTL, including Napoleon and the Congress of Vienna, the Wittelsbachs would be reinstalled. They'd likely get additional territories along the Rhine, maybe the Ruhr, leading to a German plurality in their domains. The Austrians, on the other side, will gain territories around Bavaria, and certainly get Vorderösterreich back - thus Freiburg is the most western Austrian city.

The consequence is that two large and important countries with large non-German populations will be heavily involved in German unification - should it happen ITTL.

The question of course is, what will happen during the French revolution. With an Austria including Bavaria and a Wittelsbach state at the Southern Netherlands the early stages and expansion of the French revolution will be a lot different. I could see the French revolutionaries be defeated by the coalition for example. If not the Wittelbachs will lose the Southern Netherlands to France, which would put them in a terrible position.
 
One question that would then come up would be what does this do to the number of Electors of the Holy Roman Empire? Since the rights and duties of the Elector Palatine were subsumed into the Elector of Bavaria on the understanding that no family can hold two electoral votes, and what with Habsburgs already holding the King of Bohemia's one, would this simply happen in reverse with the title of Elector Palatine being resurrected and absorbing Bavaria's electoral rights and duties? Seems likely since Charles Theodore would probably want to retain the electoral dignity or would we possibly see a new electorate being raised thanks to some political skulduggery?


You know, this is probably a stupid question, and I know everyone would be thinking that, but what was Joseph II's obsession over Bavaria? And how long has Austria laid claim to the Electorate of Bavaria?
It's large, pretty well off, it's German, and right next door. Swapping the Austrian Netherlands, which IIRC were always fairly restive about being ruled by the Habsburgs from afar, that were a long way off and with no land connection for Bavaria which is right next door was a highly attractive prospect. It would of seriously boosted their power and standing within Germany and the Empire.
 

Vitruvius

Donor
One question that would then come up would be what does this do to the number of Electors of the Holy Roman Empire? Since the rights and duties of the Elector Palatine were subsumed into the Elector of Bavaria on the understanding that no family can hold two electoral votes, and what with Habsburgs already holding the King of Bohemia's one, would this simply happen in reverse with the title of Elector Palatine being resurrected and absorbing Bavaria's electoral rights and duties? Seems likely since Charles Theodore would probably want to retain the electoral dignity or would we possibly see a new electorate being raised thanks to some political skulduggery?

I assume Charles Theodore would just remain Elector Palatine, he had only just acceded when he struck the deal with Joseph II that led to the War of Bavarian Succession. Besides part of the reason he agreed to the deal was to acquire land in the Austrian Netherlands that he could pass on to his illegitimate children and so he wouldn't have to give up his title as Elector Palatine in order to accede to Bavaria. The Netherlands, not being Wittelsbach dynastic lands wouldn't have been bound by family law that passed Wittelsbach lands to successively more junior branches of the family. Thus he could have, with the Emperor's approval, willed those lands to his illegitimate children.

So if the deal goes through he will never inherit Bavaria and so never give up the title of Elector Palatine. On his death there will be some kind of partition, likely contested between the Zweibrucken branch of the Wittelsbachs and Charles Theodore's illegitimate children. I suppose if the Wittelsbach inheritance is contested between his illegitimate children and the Duke of Zweibrucken (OTL Max I of Bavaria) then there could still be some kind of internal conflict in the Southern Netherlands (would they be called German Netherlands? Wittelsbach Netherlands?) which could still provide an opening for French intervention.

It's also worth remembering that the deal was only for the Duchy of Bavaria, or maybe even only part of it, and not the adjacent Upper Palatinate, the region north of the Danube, that had been joined to the Duchy since the Thirty Years War. If any one were to contemplate creating a new Elector in place of of Bavaria I wonder if maybe it wouldn't be the Duke of Zweibrucken. Perhaps he's made a separate Elector as a concession, symbolically in place of the extinct Bavarian one, with guarantees of inheriting the Palatinate but not necessarily the Southern Netherlands.

As for Joseph's reign I'm skeptical that it would allow him to completely institute his reforms. I don't think it makes him strong enough to subdue Hungarian resistance. The rebellion in the Austrian Netherlands deprived him of whatever resources he could have drown from that region but I don't believe it actually drew off Austrian resources, that is to say Austrian money and arms weren't really diverted there in great numbers to deal with the problem, hence the de facto independence until crushed by Leopold II. So I'm not sure a stable Austrian Bavaria in place of a rebellious Austrian Netherlands is enough to allow Joseph to ride roughshod over Hungarian traditional rights and autonomy.
 
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