Pretty much was it says in the title. What is the impact if Austria were to prove victorious in acquiring the Duchy of Bavaria in the War of the Bavarian Succession?
Austria acquires Bavaria, increasing their position in Southern Germany AND increases the amount of Geman speakers within the Habsburg empire, giving them more of a plurality vis a vis the Magyars (the second larger group in the empire). Bavaria won't make Germans a majority, but it'll give them an edge in plurality.
The Bavarian Wittelsbachs trade Bavaria for the Austria Netherlands. These lands are further augmented as the various lines of the Wittelsbach dynasty go extinct, which I do not believe we cannot stop with such a late POD. By the late 1780s, the Wittelsbach dynasty reigns over Belgium, Julich, Berg, Zweibrucken, and the Palatinate, a string of wealth territories well suited for trade (and later) industrialization. As an add boon, the war may end in favor by forcing the Dutch to open the Scheldt to Belgian trade. During Spanish and Austrian times, it had been barred to advantage of advantage. Holland may receive a run for her money.
This victory gives Joseph a huge propaganda coup, and may very well give him the needed prestige needed to reform (and succeed) at home. IOTL, his reign was a string of faiures and although succeeded by a fairly liberal brother, he was forced to undue everything to appease the pillars of the monarchy. With victory in Bavaria and without Belgium, Joseph will certainly have a free hand in his attempts to reform serfdom, extend religious tolerance, and limiting the power of the church. Victoria in Bavaria may make things go to his head, but perhaps a few close calls causes him to scale certain things down -- emancipating the serfs but not requiring them to pay for freedom in cash, ect. When Joseph II dies heirless (this POD is unlikely to find him a wife and get him an heir), Leopold Ii can continue his tradition.
The Wittelsbach domains will be the most interesting. Depending how Europe as a whole (esp. the impending French Revolution) plays out, they are in an interesting position. It'd be interesting see the Wittelsbachs reigning over a United Netherlands or a proto-Belgium that includes pieces of the Rhineland.
That would make an interesting timeline indeed.
I agree that the French revolution in some form would still occur - although it might start in some other country and spill over to France ITTL. Some form of revolutionary wars are likely as well - and thanks to the French economic and demographic power they'll expand in any future time of crisis.
Now assuming everything works out as IOTL, including Napoleon and the Congress of Vienna, the Wittelsbachs would be reinstalled. They'd likely get additional territories along the Rhine, maybe the Ruhr, leading to a German plurality in their domains. The Austrians, on the other side, will gain territories around Bavaria, and certainly get Vorderösterreich back - thus Freiburg is the most western Austrian city.
The consequence is that two large and important countries with large non-German populations will be heavily involved in German unification - should it happen ITTL.
It's large, pretty well off, it's German, and right next door. Swapping the Austrian Netherlands, which IIRC were always fairly restive about being ruled by the Habsburgs from afar, that were a long way off and with no land connection for Bavaria which is right next door was a highly attractive prospect. It would of seriously boosted their power and standing within Germany and the Empire.You know, this is probably a stupid question, and I know everyone would be thinking that, but what was Joseph II's obsession over Bavaria? And how long has Austria laid claim to the Electorate of Bavaria?
One question that would then come up would be what does this do to the number of Electors of the Holy Roman Empire? Since the rights and duties of the Elector Palatine were subsumed into the Elector of Bavaria on the understanding that no family can hold two electoral votes, and what with Habsburgs already holding the King of Bohemia's one, would this simply happen in reverse with the title of Elector Palatine being resurrected and absorbing Bavaria's electoral rights and duties? Seems likely since Charles Theodore would probably want to retain the electoral dignity or would we possibly see a new electorate being raised thanks to some political skulduggery?