WI: Austrian victory at the Second Italian Independence War

What if the Austrian Empire had managed to defeat the franco-savoyard forces during the Second Italian Independence War (1859)?
Would italian unification be halted? If so, then for how long?
What are the effects on the United Provinces Of Central Italy? Will they still join Savoy?
As Austria is more likely to hold Lombardy, then will they choose to develop the region later as it was substantially rich? If an alternate Ausgleich of sorts still happens, will it result in a triple monarchy between Austria, Hungary, and "Northern Italy"?
One more interesting thing i heard: the austrian government had plans to estabilish a colony somewhere in Africa or Asia, but the botched austrian participation in this war (and a subsequent defeat in the larger Austro-Prussian War) led to these colonial plans being abandoned. If they defeat the savoyards, could we see an austrian colony in, say, Eritrea, Somalia, Lybia or somewhere alike?
 
A military victory seems to me quite difficult to engineer, given how the war went iotl: maybe the Austrians put someone more capable than Gyulai or the Emperor in charge (difficult) and the Sardinian army is smashed before the French arrive.

Then maybe you have one or two undecisive battles and Napoleon retreats because of domestic pressures. Sardinia would have suffered a though blow and, guven the parlous state of its finances, it might be difficult for them to recover, without absorbing the other italian states and acquiring a much bigger taxpayer base. I assume that in this situation Sardinia would be too discredited to be able to absorb the central european Duchies and Garibaldi's expedition might be butterflied away. Maybe Napoleon could manage to have a French-aligned central european Kingdom created in the peace negotiations, because I can't see a complete defeat for the Frenxh expeditionary force and N III would want some concessions from Austria for his retreat.

But this is all unlikely: a better POD imho is avoiding the war outright by having Austria not play the aggressor part and thus not activating the Franco Sardinian alliance.

I suppose that later on Sardinia will try aligning with Prussia, so Lombardy-Venetia should be lost by Austria in 1866.

The problem is that, by this point, Italian nationalism was in full swing and could not be blocked by an Ausgleich-like arrangement like with Hungary (since there were indipendent itslian state outside the Habsburg empire) nor were there Italian minorities under the rule of other powers (like for Poles).
 
But this is all unlikely: a better POD imho is avoiding the war outright by having Austria not play the aggressor part and thus not activating the Franco Sardinian alliance.

I suppose that later on Sardinia will try aligning with Prussia, so Lombardy-Venetia should be lost by Austria in 1866.
I don't think an austrian military victory was that out of the table. I hear that austrian forces in the war were roughly equal to the french and savoyards combined, and even had more cannons.
There was also a threat of german intervention, but on Austria's side. I hear the french had decided to sign an early armistice with Austria and offer peace negotiations that were less harsh than expected before the prussians could declare war. Had the austrians refused the armistice, we could have seen a german intervention of sorts.
 
I don't think an austrian military victory was that out of the table. I hear that austrian forces in the war were roughly equal to the french and savoyards combined, and even had more cannons.
There was also a threat of german intervention, but on Austria's side. I hear the french had decided to sign an early armistice with Austria and offer peace negotiations that were less harsh than expected before the prussians could declare war. Had the austrians refused the armistice, we could have seen a german intervention of sorts.

Yes they were equal but in term of overall quality (in term of training, equipment and tattic) were not up the French and Prussia threat to intervene was just that an hollow threat; no the moment the war start A-H will lose military the only way to really salvage the situation is to be quick and go for the early armistice proposed by Nappy III and create the Italian confederation under papal presidency...sorry if they try an arrangement similar to Hungary the internal situation of A-H will become so complicated to be not sustainable long before 1914.
Not that the French proposed plan had some possibility to work in the middle and long term; the central italian nation had no intention to get back under Hapsburg domination and they have decided to resist in any case, sure they will fall but it will also mean that the current monarchs will have even less legitimancy than before, Sardinia will get only Lombady (except Mantua) but she will keep Savoy and Nice...so France had waste money and men for nothing even except the belief that he can use Sardinia has his proxy in Italy and A-H had his face saved another time putting a band aid on a tumor again, chosing a short timed solution instead of a long time one.
 
I don't think an austrian military victory was that out of the table. I hear that austrian forces in the war were roughly equal to the french and savoyards combined, and even had more cannons.
There was also a threat of german intervention, but on Austria's side. I hear the french had decided to sign an early armistice with Austria and offer peace negotiations that were less harsh than expected before the prussians could declare war. Had the austrians refused the armistice, we could have seen a german intervention of sorts.

If the Austrians had attacked more resolutely [Edit: Note that this is a very big if, given Gyulai's attitude, the overall austrain doctrine and their conduct during the whole campaign. It probably requires an earlier POD to be justified. The Austrians were also probably too much reliant on the quadrilaeral fortresses, but those left Milan and the rest if the very valuable lombard territory open to attack] during the first week, before the French arrived, I think that a major Austrian victory is much likely: we are talking, after all of 110.000 men against 65.000... After that Napoleon arrives, but so do two more Austrian corps: I think there would be bloody battles, leading to the Ausyrians retiring in Lombardy, but not really beaten. At this point Napoleon will cpme to terms imho and he could be bribed by the Austrians with Savoy and Nice, besides a Central Italian kingdom and Rome under French protection (this also takes out the need for Austria to garrison those areas and babysit their relatively incompetent rulers). Sardinia is crushed by reparations and maybe loses Lomellina or even Vercelli and Novara (all rich rice producing areas).

You would see italian terrorism plaguing Austria for a very long time, but what can this mutilated Sardinia really do?
Cavour will soon die in disgrace, France will be seen as a vile traitor and Prussia is not guaranteed to help out.

Maybe ttl's ww1 erupts after an Austrian archduke is killed while visiting Milan...

I am not saying this is a desirable scenario (I am, after all, an Italian) but I think it could have happened.
 
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Killing or at least getting rid of Count Kolowrat and Archduke John during the Napoleonic Wars gives Metternich a considerably freer hand with the military and would probably help reach that goal.

Or at least get rid of "Gutinand der Fertige" and the whole regency impasse. Pity that Franz Karl wouldn't have been much better...

There is also the attempt on FJ's life in 1853: Ferdinand Maximillian was not the liberal paladine that some think, but at least he was more flexible than Franz Josef and might have avoided some of the excesses of the late Radetzky's rule in Lombardy Venetia (although most executions had already been carried out by march 1853) and maybe allowed a quicker return to civilian government and implemented a moderate constitution, with a Landtag for each Kronland and a consultive Reichstag, by 1855-56. This should leave the internal situation of the Empire a bit better by 1859 and he seemed to have been good at picking officers for the Navy (Tegetthof) he might be as good (or lucky) with the army, or at least he would not want to micromanage it as much as FJ did, thus the War ministry and General Staff might be a bit better organised than iotl.

If we want the optimal choice, maybe Austria should have left L-V to the Grand Duke of Tuscany in 1848, thus creating a friendly mid sized country there and using Radetzky's army to crush the Hungarians without Russian help. This would put them in a better position to intervene in the Crimean war, maybe even winning the Danubian principalties at the peace table.
On one hand thet would lose revenue from very rich Lombardy and decently agricultural Venetia, on the other hand they don't have to keep garrisons and fortresses there and have a front less to worry about in any future confrontation with Prussia. Austria cannot play on three tables forever.
 
Combining the various areas in northern Italy that were under Habsurgs under an umbrella organization could be useful. Combining Tuscany with Austria around the time of Marie Theresa would be a bit far out there as well, but somehow rolling it into the Pragmatic Sanction, maybe marry the overlord of this union of Italian states to a Bourbon who may also have one of the regions up there... I may be thinking too far back, though.
 
Combining the various areas in northern Italy that were under Habsurgs under an umbrella organization could be useful. Combining Tuscany with Austria around the time of Marie Theresa would be a bit far out there as well, but somehow rolling it into the Pragmatic Sanction, maybe marry the overlord of this union of Italian states to a Bourbon who may also have one of the regions up there... I may be thinking too far back, though.

Indeed. If we want to go that back, a pet theory of mine is having the marriage between Vittorio Amedeo of Savoy (who iotl died in 1715 as an adolescent) and Maria Amalia (who married Charles vii of Bayern iotl) eventually leading to an House of Habsburg-Savoy either unifying most Italy much earlier or ruling a more Italian focused Austrian empire.

But that's quite offtopic...
 
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