WI: Austrian victory at Königgrätz

What happens if the Austrians win at the Battle of Königgrätz, during the Austro-Prussian War?


Basically the Prussians are toast. They are in retreat over ground already stripped bare on the way down by their foraging parties, so they'll get little or no food - and already they've eaten little for 48 hours. They are falling back across flat country ideal for the Austrian cavalry, and are trapped on the wrong side of a mountain range. All or most of them probably end up having to surrender.

The peace terms are likely to be horrendous. Austria will probably get Silesia, while the dethroned GDs of Modena and Tuscany get new states carved out of the Rhenish provinces. Saxony will regain her 1813 borders, while Prussia's other territory west of the Elbe is parcelled out among Hanover, Wurttemberg, Bavaria and maybe some lesser states. The Duke of Augustenburg gets Schleswig-Holstein. Austria still has to give up Venetia in order to secure Napoleon III's consent, but extracts a heavy indemnity from Italy, as well as from Prussia. The latter will however keep Posen, save for minor border adjustments, to avoid upsetting the Tsar by changing the division of Poland. If Napoleon III takes the opportunity to grab Luxemburg, Austria will let him have it.
 

Razgriz 2K9

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While the result of the battle would likely lead to a loss of a good chunk of the Prussian army, I doubt such a peace would feasible unless the Austrians follow up that success with an invasion of Prussia itself. And even then, Prussia is sure to have another army ready to see the Austrians and their allies off.

At most, the peace would probably see the same indemnities, but probably either the loss of Silesia or Rhineland, not both.
 
While the result of the battle would likely lead to a loss of a good chunk of the Prussian army, I doubt such a peace would feasible unless the Austrians follow up that success with an invasion of Prussia itself. And even then, Prussia is sure to have another army ready to see the Austrians and their allies off.

They did, but it made heavy weather even of defeating the lesser states. Iirc it didn't even manage to beat the Bavarians until a week or two after Koniggratz. So I can't really picture it "seeing off the Austrians".

The Bohemian campaign was "all or nothing" for Prussia - in some ways a bit like the offensive of 1918. If successful it would bring a total victory, but if not it would expose Prussia to total defeat. There isn't really any middle way. This is no doubt what Moltke meant when he told Wilhelm (who was wavering and considering retreat) that at Koniggratz they were fighting for "the very existence of Prussia".

At most, the peace would probably see the same indemnities, but probably either the loss of Silesia or Rhineland, not both.

Not sure I follow. Prussia won't concede either unless totally defeated - in which case it may perfectly well lose both.

The only power in a position to intervene is France, and Nappy III is still preoccupied with Venetia, and will be delighted for FJ to accept Silesia in lieu of it. As for the Rhineland, he'll be happy enough to see Prussia replaced there by a couple of minor states - even if they are ruled by Austrian Archdukes.
 
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