WI: Austrian-led Germany not including Prussia

They could give Poznań, Kraków, Oswięcim & Zator and Galicia to some cousin, keping it in customs union with the Germany makes discontinous territory less of a problem.

That’s...actually a really interesting idea I’m going to to have to jot that down somewhere for future ideas.

Then again I suspect that Galicia would have been occupied by Russia in this scenario.

That’s a good point they might even long term annex it in the event of Hungarian independence. But it also helps in any dismemberment of Prussia in that Austria can tactfully remind Russia of this fact.
 
How exactly do they pull that off, though, given that the core of that would-be state is Russian, not Prussian territory? I would think that just hacking off a piece of a neutral nation that was assigned said piece at the last conference to decide the balance of power in Europe just to attain a dynastic goal would undoubtedly invite the other GPs to intervene in the situation.

Yes, if an Austrian-British Axis against Russia/France/Prussia WWI happens that is likely.
 
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I dont see Prussia loosing silesia, rhineland and land west of the Elbe and kicked out sure! but i doubt Russia, France and Britain would let Prussia be neutered and rendered weaker than after Jena-Auerstedt while austria consolidates mega Germany barring Brandenburg, pommerania and East prussia which werent really rich regions if i recall correctly. Otherwise looks good:)
 
I dont see Prussia loosing silesia, rhineland and land west of the Elbe and kicked out sure!
There is no way Austria wouldn't take Silesia (at the absolute minimum) in the situation where Austria has achieved a significant victory over Prussia.

And if Prussia loses the war that it started in OTL against the rest of the German Confederation, the Prussia Rheinprovinz - which is not territorially contiguous with the rest of Prussia -- becomes utterly indefensible. That's just geographic fact.

i doubt Russia, France and Britain would let Prussia be neutered and
In OTL, Russia, France and Great Britain didn't particularly want to see the German Confederation torn apart, Austria neutered, and Prussia suddenly gaining de facto sovereignty over most of the German states (their puppet "North German Confederation", which was actually a proto-Kaiserreich, almost identical in constitution to the later Germany). It happened anyway.

They disliked it, but not enough to fight an expensive war against the victorious power for the sake of undoing it. And France, the most directly affected of the other great powers, was unprepared and busy elsewhere.
 
There is no way Austria wouldn't take Silesia (at the absolute minimum) in the situation where Austria has achieved a significant victory over Prussia.

And if Prussia loses the war that it started in OTL against the rest of the German Confederation, the Prussia Rheinprovinz - which is not territorially contiguous with the rest of Prussia -- becomes utterly indefensible. That's just geographic fact.


In OTL, Russia, France and Great Britain didn't particularly want to see the German Confederation torn apart, Austria neutered, and Prussia suddenly gaining de facto sovereignty over most of the German states (their puppet "North German Confederation", which was actually a proto-Kaiserreich, almost identical in constitution to the later Germany). It happened anyway.

They disliked it, but not enough to fight an expensive war against the victorious power for the sake of undoing it. And France, the most directly affected of the other great powers, was unprepared and busy elsewhere.


I just dont see it really, i doubt any of the other would have let Prussia seize all of Bohemia in 1866. I imagine they would want some sort of counterweight to Austria and Prussia sans Rhineland and Silesia in the late 1800s is a non entity. I might very well be totally of my rocker though?
 
I just dont see it really, i doubt any of the other would have let Prussia seize all of Bohemia in 1866. I imagine they would want some sort of counterweight to Austria and Prussia sans Rhineland and Silesia in the late 1800s is a non entity. I might very well be totally of my rocker though?

I agree with this. I could see Prussia being stripped back down to its Tilsit borders, with the land it annexed from Saxony in 1815 being returned to Saxony, Poznań being annexed by Russia, and Austria acquiescing to Russian occupation of Galicia in exchange for something else like a free hand in the western Balkans. No way Russia allows anything like an independent Poland to appear, even if it's an obvious Habsburg puppet compared of discontinuous parts, as this might give the denizens of Congress Poland the wrong ideas.
 
I just dont see it really, i doubt any of the other would have let Prussia seize all of Bohemia in 1866.

I think you underestimate how big a change the OTL Austro-Prussian War was, to the balance of power as it previously existed.

With retrospect it's easy to say "Oh, Prussia became dominant in Germany", as if that's a negligible thing, or as if that's an expected thing. It wasn't. Prussia tore apart the German Confederation that was created at the Congress of Vienna, humiliated the hitherto-greatest of the Central European powers, annexed vast swathes of German land—including the Kingdom of Hanover, which had a strong blood relation to the British Crown—and puppeted most of the rest of Germany, excluding only Hesse-Darmstadt, Bavaria, Württemburg and Baden…

…and the Prussians got away with it happily. The other great powers didn't intervene. And that's in the circumstance when the Prussians started the war, against all the other German Confederation states, by invading territory held by the rest of the German Confederation. Prussia was clearly the aggressor. OTL Prussia's actions were more threatening than TTL Austria's actions. Yet no-one intervened against Prussia in OTL.

I agree with you that the Austrians retaking Silesia is vaguely comparable to the idea of the Prussians taking Bohemia, in terms of how big a change it is to the balance of power. But compared with the huge deal of the Prussians actually did do—bringing most of Germany under their dominion and tearing apart the post-Napoleonic-Wars settlement in Central Europe—the Prussians "merely" annexing Bohemia would have been small by comparison. This change is a less radical change to the balance of power than what the Prussians did in OTL. And the OTL Prussians got away with it.

No way Russia allows anything like an independent Poland to appear, even if it's an obvious Habsburg puppet compared of discontinuous parts, as this might give the denizens of Congress Poland the wrong ideas.

I agree with this bit.

However, I don't agree that the other great powers would intervene to help Prussia. I'm pretty convinced that Austria could get away with retaking Silesia (otherwise I wouldn't have put that in the premise). And Austria is in charge here, not Saxony. Maybe Saxony would gain territory at Prussia's expense, yes that's believable; but the Austrian Empire is in the driving seat here. If the Austrian-German armies have done well enough in the war to award Prussia's Saxon province back to Saxony, I don't think they would be so selfless as to help Saxony but not retake Silesia for themselves.

If people are utterly unconvinced, maybe we need Napoleon III to be more involved in his OTL North American misadventures, so that he's even more distracted than he was in OTL. That would help make other-great-power intervention less likely.
 
However, I don't agree that the other great powers would intervene to help Prussia. I'm pretty convinced that Austria could get away with retaking Silesia (otherwise I wouldn't have put that in the premise). And Austria is in charge here, not Saxony. Maybe Saxony would gain territory at Prussia's expense, yes that's believable; but the Austrian Empire is in the driving seat here. If the Austrian-German armies have done well enough in the war to award Prussia's Saxon province back to Saxony, I don't think they would be so selfless as to help Saxony but not retake Silesia for themselves.

If people are utterly unconvinced, maybe we need Napoleon III to be more involved in his OTL North American misadventures, so that he's even more distracted than he was in OTL. That would help make other-great-power intervention less likely.

The thing is also that Austria here at least technically would be in the right regardless because they’d be fighting for “preserving” the German Confederation and the whole “Post Napoleonic Peace” up against the rapacious Prussian.

Heck even pushing to have old Saxon territory given back could also help push that image as well of Austria sticking up for the smaller states by getting back old territory they had lost. Up at Austria at that point and how much sweat and blood saxony had put into the game. If anything they may not get the land but could get special privileges, like being able to retain their own military force akin to OTLs Bavaria.

Also If OTLs adventurism was distracting enough to Napoleon then I think it would be enough for TTL lol.
 
The most important thing is who Austria annex directly only Silesia and not anymore land. Everything else stripped to Prussia need to be given to indipendent rulers (who can very well be Austrian Archduke) so Saxony will have back its lands while Rhineland and Brandeburg will go to two Archdukes
 
I could see the British being friendly due to the Habsburgs historical lack of interest in Empire building outside of Europe so they could easily come to an understanding on issues that drove OTL Britain and Germany apart.

Hohenzollern/Brandenburgian/Prussian lack of interest in Empire building outside of Europe did not ensure that IOTL.
An "understanding" would be as likely as it was IOTL.

Ottomans will probably be highly worried due to the fact that the Habsburg led Germany will no doubt have imperialistic designs on the Balkans and defending Christendom and theyre alliance with Russia will go over just as much as you’d expect. French ally again.

Without Hungary, Austrian designs on Ottoman Balkan would not get much less priority.
 
Would Maximilian even go along with Napoleon III ITTL?

And if not, just how far would france go with Mexico if they cant get a france friendly monarch to install?
 
Vis a vis the bance of powwr, bear in mind that austria wirhout germany was still a great power. Prussia without silesia and the rhineland is nothing.

No way Austria's neutering of Prussia doesn't provoke an intervention. At the least I think she would have to sacrifice territory- Lombardy Venetia to Italy, Galicia to Russia.
 
Vis a vis the bance of powwr, bear in mind that austria wirhout germany was still a great power. Prussia without silesia and the rhineland is nothing.

No way Austria's neutering of Prussia doesn't provoke an intervention. At the least I think she would have to sacrifice territory- Lombardy Venetia to Italy, Galicia to Russia.
Are you completely forgetting that Austria lost a massive chunk of its empire that they've controlled for ages in a bloody civil war of independence not so long ago? And as someone mentioned earlier, they probably already gave Galicia to russia because without Hungary it became an indefensible salient.

Them taking Silesia, Brandenburg, and rhineland just re-established their status as a european power, and legally they had every right to give Prussia a beating.

Silesia and Brandenburg aren't even that great of a prize, the Rhineland provinces are the real jewel because that is (or will be) the heart of german industry.
 
Hohenzollern/Brandenburgian/Prussian lack of interest in Empire building outside of Europe did not ensure that IOTL.
An "understanding" would be as likely as it was IOTL.

Like I said earlier that was just one possible scenario. I even used other examples of what could happen. Trying to avoid typical carbon copy scenarios is part of the fun in OTL’s you know? And a Germany more focused on the Med and establishing hegemony in the Western Balkans isn’t going to be as threatening to British interests, compared to one IOTL where they’re involved in Africa and massive build up in the North Sea fuels British paranoia.

Without Hungary, Austrian designs on Ottoman Balkan would not get much less priority.

Securing the Western balkan region would be a key part of making sure that the German fleet in the Med can’t be completely bottled up by any revanchist Italian state. Less priority is doubtful.
 
Trying to avoid typical carbon copy scenarios is part of the fun in OTL’s you know? And a Germany more focused on the Med and establishing hegemony in the Western Balkans isn’t going to be as threatening to British interests, compared to one IOTL where they’re involved in Africa and massive build up in the North Sea fuels British paranoia.

German colonialism and naval build-up was pretty much inevitable afte the German nation state was established.
We can speculate about the details, though: Wouldn't an Austrian-led Germany care about the navy because Wien seems to have cared more about naval matters than Berlin did? Wouldn't the colonialism of an Austrian-led Germany be more focused on eastern Africa?

Securing the Western balkan region would be a key part of making sure that the German fleet in the Med can’t be completely bottled up by any revanchist Italian state. Less priority is doubtful.

Much less than important than IOTL when the sea access via the Adria was the only direct access to the seas available and the Balkans was the remaining region where Wien could expand influence and territory.
 
German colonialism and naval build-up was pretty much inevitable afte the German nation state was established.
We can speculate about the details, though: Wouldn't an Austrian-led Germany care about the navy because Wien seems to have cared more about naval matters than Berlin did? Wouldn't the colonialism of an Austrian-led Germany be more focused on eastern Africa?

Much less than important than IOTL when the sea access via the Adria was the only direct access to the seas available and the Balkans was the remaining region where Wien could expand influence and territory.
There are actually some big problems with Austrian-led Germany embarking on colonial adventures. Firstly, the Austrian navy during the relevant time period was almost always starved of resources and relied on royal favour to get any real money at all. In such a situation it would be pretty difficult to build up a big enough navy to realistically compete in the colonial game. Secondly, the Ostend Company, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ostend_Company. It was dissolved by agreement of the Treaty of Vienna with Britain in 1731, a treaty that effectively precluded Austria from engaging in any colonial activity. Now of course this treaty is at least a century old by the time of unification but it technically remains in effect and Britain can use it to shut down Austrian colonial ventures.
 
You know im kinda curious about whats going on in prussia after this prusso-german war. Like, all of Bismarck's plans just blew up in his face, supposing he (or an equivalent) exists ITTL.
 
There are actually some big problems with Austrian-led Germany embarking on colonial adventures. Firstly, the Austrian navy during the relevant time period was almost always starved of resources and relied on royal favour to get any real money at all. In such a situation it would be pretty difficult to build up a big enough navy to realistically compete in the colonial game.

The Austrian navy "starved of resources" was superior to the Prussian navy which is what you have to compare the Austrian navy with because the Prussian navy did become the Imperial German navy IOTL.
If the later was able to compete in the colonial game, why should a German navy based on the superior Austrian navy not be able to compete and perform even better?

, the Ostend Company, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ostend_Company. It was dissolved by agreement of the Treaty of Vienna with Britain in 1731, a treaty that effectively precluded Austria from engaging in any colonial activity. Now of course this treaty is at least a century old by the time of unification but it technically remains in effect and Britain can use it to shut down Austrian colonial ventures.

It was not relevant in the 19th century. It was not even relevant in the late 18th century as your wiki link shows:
In the 1770s Austria re-established a colonial trading company, based on the model of the Ostend Company, to take advantage of the ongoing war between Britain, France and the Dutch Republic to take over a share of these countries' trade with India and China. This was the Société impériale asiatique de Trieste et Anvers, or Société asiatique de Trieste, also known as the Antwerp Company, founded in 1775 by William Bolts and Charles Proli, which was based in Ostend and Trieste and operated until 1785.[11]
 
You know im kinda curious about whats going on in prussia after this prusso-german war. Like, all of Bismarck's plans just blew up in his face, supposing he (or an equivalent) exists ITTL.

Well, Bismarck has now been totally discredited, and Prussia has been reduced to the status of a mid-grade power sandwiched between two behemoths, so I suppose the only thing they really could do at this point would be to focus on internal economic improvements. They'd basically be the eastern Netherlands, only without any colonies.
 
They'd basically be the eastern Netherlands, only without any colonies.
Not so sure about that. Netherlands AFAIK Doesn't have the same history of militarism or a massive hate-on for its neighbors, as prussia here does. Plus i wouldn't put it past Russia to annex a Gdansk corridor "to protect slavic minorities". The fact that they'd get a warm water port on a major river would be mere coincidence.
 
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