WI: Austrian-led Germany not including Prussia

First, here's a bit of background to explain the scenario I'm proposing.

The PoD is when Crown Prince Ludwig of Bavaria dies in the Battle of Abensberg in 1809, fighting against the Austrians. The absence of the strong-willed, anti-French crown prince—who in OTL was in part responsible for prompting his father to turn against the French Empire and join the Sixth Coalition, before Emperor Napoleon suffered his great defeat in the Battle of the Nations—leads the more cautious King Maximilian of Bavaria, of the Wittelsbach dynasty, to maintain his alliance with Imperial France for longer. As a result of King Maximilian fighting for the Emperor and only jumping ship to the Coalition at the very last moment, the Wittelsbachs do not get the guarantee they got in OTL of keeping the borders for the much-enlarged Kingdom of Bavaria that Napoleon Bonaparte created. Indeed, the rulers of the Coalition see the Wittelsbach dynasty as traitors and collaborators. Also—you could view this as a second PoD or as a butterfly, it doesn't really matter—Napoleon doesn't escape Elba, so there's no Hundred Days in TTL; the OTL Hundred Days took credit (of being immediately responsible for Napoleon's recent, seemingly-final defeat) away from the Austrians and Russians and gave more credit to the Prussians and the British. So Austria is also in a more prestigious position. Following this, Napoleon Bonaparte's invention of an expanded Bavaria is wiped off the map in TTL, like so many other of Bonaparte's borders, and it is annexed to Austria. Prussia gets somewhat greater Rhineland concessions, to balance Austria's strength, but now Austria too is in a position to act as the protector of the small states of western Germany from French aggression.

Following the reactionary order imposed upon Europe at the Congress of Vienna, there are still alt-"Revolutions of 1848", called the Liberal Risings or the Great Risings. In 1851, Hungary rebels against Austria. The Hungarian conservative aristocrats are very powerful in Hungary and wary of things going too far for fear of jeopardising their own power, so there are signs of attempted compromise between the Diet of Hungary and Emperor Leopold of Austria, but the situation on the ground continually deteriorates due to Hungarian liberal and nationalist militias clashing against Austrian Habsburg forces. Unfortunately, one of the Emperor's generals takes it upon himself to send his troops into Hungary to crush some Hungarians who were harrassing Austrian supply lines and things rapidly spiral out of control. In that way so common to history, bad decisions that are made in a moment of crisis, on the ground, cause conflict that the decision-makers in the air didn't want. Due to some other aspects of the TL—notably, there was a major war between Russia and the Ottoman Empire in the 1830s, where the British took the Ottoman side and the Austrians decided to stay out of it—the Russians don't keep to their side of the 'Holy Alliance' and fight to defend Austria, feeling that the Austrians betrayed it first; and the Prussians don't intervene because they're afraid that the Austrians are dangerously too powerful in Germany, due to the annexation of Bavaria, and they want to see Austria cut down to size.

Hungary wins the war, so Hungary becomes independent, as a chaotic republic with frequent political conflict between its powerful aristocracy (who are now committed to republicanism but aren't fond of democracy and, especially, land reform) and more liberal elements, and also between Hungarian nationalists and those advocating more autonomy for the many non-Hungarian nationalities in Hungary. Usually the more pro-democratic Hungarians are also more nationalist, envisaging a culturally united, unitary Hungarian democratic republic, so the aristocratic conservatives and nationalities are in an alliance of convenience.

Moreover, this is a long and hard-fought war for Austria. Its most important result for German history is to give Austrian troops valuable military experience and the Austrian army and state a kick up the backside to improve its army in a way that it didn't get in OTL. Meanwhile, the Prussian army, top-of-the-line decades ago, is out-of-practice and hasn't been given hard-fought conflicts and defeats to motivate it to keep up and pursue new military ideas. The Prussian army is somewhat less impressive than in OTL, whereas the Austrian army is much more so, including, critically, faster local mobilisation (with much less fear of separatist revolts now that most of Austria's non-German regions are already lost).

What all of this is building up to is an alternate Austro-Prussian War in the late 1860s, known in TTL as the Prusso-German War. Like in OTL it's fought between Prussia and the rest of the German Confederation when Prussia arbitrarily decided to seize all of Schleswig-Holstein (recently conquered from Denmark by the German Confederation) for itself, violating the will of the other states of the German Confederation as expressed in their German Diet. In OTL the Prussians won against the rest of the German Confederation (not just Austria as it's often remembered) as a short victorious war in a matter of two months. They annexed lots of the other German states, forcibly dissolved the German Confederation and forced the rest of northern Germany into a de facto Prussian-ruled 'North German Confederation' which was constitutionally extremely similar to the later Empire—annexation in all but name. Because the Prussians won, this action against the will of German unity wasn't regarded as a blow against German unity. In TTL the outcome is different. Austria puts on a much better showing, holding off the Prussians, and the rest of the German Confederation rallies to Austria's side against the Prussians. Ultimately, the outnumbered Prussians are crushed and Austria obtains a decisive victory.
  • Silesia (annexed by Prussia from Austria a hundred years earlier) is returned from Prussia to Austria.
  • Prussia obviously doesn't make the huge territorial gains it made from this war in OTL.
  • Prussia is expelled from the German Confederation, ending the situation where the German Confederation had two rival leading powers and hence was ineffectual and indecisive. Now it's very clearly Austria running the show.
  • The German Confederation has a single governing power, Austria. (The Emperor of Austria is always President of the German Confederation.) Now it also has an experience of fighting together in a common cause and achieving military victory. Whereas in OTL the German Confederation was torn apart and a new Germany was established as a separate entity, in TTL the German Confederation becomes "Germany".
  • Prussia is hated by the German Confederation, and is thought of as clearly un-German, an aggressor against Germany. Prussia, in turn, is Germany's implacable enemy, with a grudge as bad as OTL due to the loss of Silesia.
  • The Prussian-ruled Rhineland, whose people think of themselves as Germans not Prussians and haven't been under Prussian rule for very long anyway, is taken away from Prussia and made part of Germany.
  • Much of Prussia's remaining territory is now ethnically Polish, not German. Prussia is a foreign country outside Germany, whereas Austria is the leading power of Germany.
So, whereas in OTL Germany was formed with Prussia running the show and Austria locked out, here Germany is formed with Austria running the show and Prussia locked out.

How do you think this kind of Germany would develop? There are loads of questions that come to mind.

Would TTL Germany end up less centralised than OTL Bismarckian Germany?

What would Germany's religious relations be like between Catholics and Protestants, with Catholic-majority Austria as its dominant power and Protestant-majority Prussia as its external enemy? A reverse-Kulturkampf?

What would happen with the various national minorities in Austria (Czechs, Poles, Slovenes, maybe Italians if Austria still includes Lombardy and Venetia) as national minorities in Austrian-led Germany?

As it includes Austria and no Prussia, with only minor North Sea and Baltic Sea coastlines, it would presumably be less Baltic- and North Sea-focused and more Mediterranean-focused. What effects would that have? A Mediterranean-focused Germany is an idea I've never seen before.

What sort of relations would TTL's Germany have with other countries? There's no Alsace-Lorraine problem with France, but there is a Silesia problem with Prussia. Prussia in TTL would be a small, not-very-powerful country, but how would ATL Austrian-led, Mediterranean-focused Germany relate to other countries, such as the Russians, the French, the British and the Ottomans?

Please tell me your thoughts! :)
 
As it includes Austria and no Prussia, with only minor North Sea and Baltic Sea coastlines, it would presumably be less Baltic- and North Sea-focused and more Mediterranean-focused. What effects would that have? A Mediterranean-focused Germany is an idea I've never seen before.

It would have the same North Sea coastline as IOTL. Being less Baltic- and North Sea-focused here does not mean it will be Mediterranean-focused.
 
What sort of relations would TTL's Germany have with other countries? There's no Alsace-Lorraine problem with France, but there is a Silesia problem with Prussia. Prussia in TTL would be a small, not-very-powerful country, but how would ATL Austrian-led, Mediterranean-focused Germany relate to other countries, such as the Russians, the French, the British and the Ottomans?

I could see the British being friendly due to the Habsburgs historical lack of interest in Empire building outside of Europe so they could easily come to an understanding on issues that drove OTL Britain and Germany apart.

France despite not having an Alsace issue with TTL Germany will no doubt take offense that the Germans are unified at all and feel threatened by a strong neighbor in their border. Moreover the fact that the Germans will be sending ships all over the Med. will lead to worry as well. They’ll look to a unified Italy to ally themselves with and without Lombardy-Venetia, Italy will be primed up to look for a chance to cause trouble. They probably look to Prussia as well in order to create some sort of alliance. Expect hijinks to ensue.

Russia will be no doubt friendly to them initially due to common cause. I honestly doubt Hungary’s chaotic Republican structure is going to be looked well on by the Czar and the Habsurgs are going to want some payback so I expect so some sort of alliance between Germany and Russia in order to deal with it (Partition) Afterwards you never know they’ll hopefully resolve any other issues concerning the Balkans SOI and remain allies for years to come.

Ottomans will probably be highly worried due to the fact that the Habsburg led Germany will no doubt have imperialistic designs on the Balkans and defending Christendom and theyre alliance with Russia will go over just as much as you’d expect. French ally again.

Would TTL Germany end up less centralised than OTL Bismarckian Germany?

I would assume so since Austria up to this point has championed itself as a defender of the liberties of the small German states. I would think the government structure would look very mixed with some areas having much more internal autonomy such as the aforementioned German states, than others like the Rhineland.

What would happen with the various national minorities in Austria (Czechs, Poles, Slovenes, maybe Italians if Austria still includes Lombardy and Venetia) as national minorities in Austrian-led Germany?

I would think Austria’s policy of tolerance as long as their loyal would continue. The Czechs would be fine and maybe will be able to wrangle some concessions on autonomy from Vienna. The Slovenes will be fine as well. The Italians would basically have their own piece of the pie anyways because Austria in this situation would be fast make sure that Lombardy-Venetia is considered an integral part of the confederate structure. Poles have for the most been pretty quietly loyal to the Austrians and would no doubt remain so considering they would look to Prussia and Russia and see what could be worse.
 
First, here's a bit of background to explain the scenario I'm proposing.

The PoD is when Crown Prince Ludwig of Bavaria dies in the Battle of Abensberg in 1809, fighting against the Austrians. The absence of the strong-willed, anti-French crown prince—who in OTL was in part responsible for prompting his father to turn against the French Empire and join the Sixth Coalition, before Emperor Napoleon suffered his great defeat in the Battle of the Nations—leads the more cautious King Maximilian of Bavaria, of the Wittelsbach dynasty, to maintain his alliance with Imperial France for longer. As a result of King Maximilian fighting for the Emperor and only jumping ship to the Coalition at the very last moment, the Wittelsbachs do not get the guarantee they got in OTL of keeping the borders for the much-enlarged Kingdom of Bavaria that Napoleon Bonaparte created. Indeed, the rulers of the Coalition see the Wittelsbach dynasty as traitors and collaborators. Also—you could view this as a second PoD or as a butterfly, it doesn't really matter—Napoleon doesn't escape Elba, so there's no Hundred Days in TTL; the OTL Hundred Days took credit (of being immediately responsible for Napoleon's recent, seemingly-final defeat) away from the Austrians and Russians and gave more credit to the Prussians and the British. So Austria is also in a more prestigious position. Following this, Napoleon Bonaparte's invention of an expanded Bavaria is wiped off the map in TTL, like so many other of Bonaparte's borders, and it is annexed to Austria. Prussia gets somewhat greater Rhineland concessions, to balance Austria's strength, but now Austria too is in a position to act as the protector of the small states of western Germany from French aggression.

Following the reactionary order imposed upon Europe at the Congress of Vienna, there are still alt-"Revolutions of 1848", called the Liberal Risings or the Great Risings. In 1851, Hungary rebels against Austria. The Hungarian conservative aristocrats are very powerful in Hungary and wary of things going too far for fear of jeopardising their own power, so there are signs of attempted compromise between the Diet of Hungary and Emperor Leopold of Austria, but the situation on the ground continually deteriorates due to Hungarian liberal and nationalist militias clashing against Austrian Habsburg forces. Unfortunately, one of the Emperor's generals takes it upon himself to send his troops into Hungary to crush some Hungarians who were harrassing Austrian supply lines and things rapidly spiral out of control. In that way so common to history, bad decisions that are made in a moment of crisis, on the ground, cause conflict that the decision-makers in the air didn't want. Due to some other aspects of the TL—notably, there was a major war between Russia and the Ottoman Empire in the 1830s, where the British took the Ottoman side and the Austrians decided to stay out of it—the Russians don't keep to their side of the 'Holy Alliance' and fight to defend Austria, feeling that the Austrians betrayed it first; and the Prussians don't intervene because they're afraid that the Austrians are dangerously too powerful in Germany, due to the annexation of Bavaria, and they want to see Austria cut down to size.

Hungary wins the war, so Hungary becomes independent, as a chaotic republic with frequent political conflict between its powerful aristocracy (who are now committed to republicanism but aren't fond of democracy and, especially, land reform) and more liberal elements, and also between Hungarian nationalists and those advocating more autonomy for the many non-Hungarian nationalities in Hungary. Usually the more pro-democratic Hungarians are also more nationalist, envisaging a culturally united, unitary Hungarian democratic republic, so the aristocratic conservatives and nationalities are in an alliance of convenience.

Moreover, this is a long and hard-fought war for Austria. Its most important result for German history is to give Austrian troops valuable military experience and the Austrian army and state a kick up the backside to improve its army in a way that it didn't get in OTL. Meanwhile, the Prussian army, top-of-the-line decades ago, is out-of-practice and hasn't been given hard-fought conflicts and defeats to motivate it to keep up and pursue new military ideas. The Prussian army is somewhat less impressive than in OTL, whereas the Austrian army is much more so, including, critically, faster local mobilisation (with much less fear of separatist revolts now that most of Austria's non-German regions are already lost).

What all of this is building up to is an alternate Austro-Prussian War in the late 1860s, known in TTL as the Prusso-German War. Like in OTL it's fought between Prussia and the rest of the German Confederation when Prussia arbitrarily decided to seize all of Schleswig-Holstein (recently conquered from Denmark by the German Confederation) for itself, violating the will of the other states of the German Confederation as expressed in their German Diet. In OTL the Prussians won against the rest of the German Confederation (not just Austria as it's often remembered) as a short victorious war in a matter of two months. They annexed lots of the other German states, forcibly dissolved the German Confederation and forced the rest of northern Germany into a de facto Prussian-ruled 'North German Confederation' which was constitutionally extremely similar to the later Empire—annexation in all but name. Because the Prussians won, this action against the will of German unity wasn't regarded as a blow against German unity. In TTL the outcome is different. Austria puts on a much better showing, holding off the Prussians, and the rest of the German Confederation rallies to Austria's side against the Prussians. Ultimately, the outnumbered Prussians are crushed and Austria obtains a decisive victory.
  • Silesia (annexed by Prussia from Austria a hundred years earlier) is returned from Prussia to Austria.
  • Prussia obviously doesn't make the huge territorial gains it made from this war in OTL.
  • Prussia is expelled from the German Confederation, ending the situation where the German Confederation had two rival leading powers and hence was ineffectual and indecisive. Now it's very clearly Austria running the show.
  • The German Confederation has a single governing power, Austria. (The Emperor of Austria is always President of the German Confederation.) Now it also has an experience of fighting together in a common cause and achieving military victory. Whereas in OTL the German Confederation was torn apart and a new Germany was established as a separate entity, in TTL the German Confederation becomes "Germany".
  • Prussia is hated by the German Confederation, and is thought of as clearly un-German, an aggressor against Germany. Prussia, in turn, is Germany's implacable enemy, with a grudge as bad as OTL due to the loss of Silesia.
  • The Prussian-ruled Rhineland, whose people think of themselves as Germans not Prussians and haven't been under Prussian rule for very long anyway, is taken away from Prussia and made part of Germany.
  • Much of Prussia's remaining territory is now ethnically Polish, not German. Prussia is a foreign country outside Germany, whereas Austria is the leading power of Germany.
So, whereas in OTL Germany was formed with Prussia running the show and Austria locked out, here Germany is formed with Austria running the show and Prussia locked out.

How do you think this kind of Germany would develop? There are loads of questions that come to mind.

Would TTL Germany end up less centralised than OTL Bismarckian Germany?

What would Germany's religious relations be like between Catholics and Protestants, with Catholic-majority Austria as its dominant power and Protestant-majority Prussia as its external enemy? A reverse-Kulturkampf?

What would happen with the various national minorities in Austria (Czechs, Poles, Slovenes, maybe Italians if Austria still includes Lombardy and Venetia) as national minorities in Austrian-led Germany?

As it includes Austria and no Prussia, with only minor North Sea and Baltic Sea coastlines, it would presumably be less Baltic- and North Sea-focused and more Mediterranean-focused. What effects would that have? A Mediterranean-focused Germany is an idea I've never seen before.

What sort of relations would TTL's Germany have with other countries? There's no Alsace-Lorraine problem with France, but there is a Silesia problem with Prussia. Prussia in TTL would be a small, not-very-powerful country, but how would ATL Austrian-led, Mediterranean-focused Germany relate to other countries, such as the Russians, the French, the British and the Ottomans?

Please tell me your thoughts! :)
I think pretty likely for Prussia in this scenario losing all or almost all the territory who is part of the electorate of Brandeburg.
 
What happens to Galicia in this scenario? I'm also assuming that the Hungary that emerges includes Dalmatia in addition to OTL Transleithania.

I'm not sure if Germany would really be so lacking in a North Sea coast - Prussia's only contribution to Germany proper was really just Pomerania IMO. There's still the mass of Hanseatic cities and an extensive trade network that ought to be maintained. Rather I suppose Germany would become a bit like Russia, maintaining two fleets on either side of the continent.
 
What happens to Galicia in this scenario? I'm also assuming that the Hungary that emerges includes Dalmatia in addition to OTL Transleithania.

I'm not sure if Germany would really be so lacking in a North Sea coast - Prussia's only contribution to Germany proper was really just Pomerania IMO. There's still the mass of Hanseatic cities and an extensive trade network that ought to be maintained. Rather I suppose Germany would become a bit like Russia, maintaining two fleets on either side of the continent.
I think Austria might get more of Poland.
 
I think pretty likely for Prussia in this scenario losing all or almost all the territory who is part of the electorate of Brandeburg.

That was my thought as well, with the Habsburgs turning the state over to one of their many relatives made refugee by the revolutions in Italy, Hungary and elsewhere. When they’re not creating adhoc realms for them out of the Rhineland of course :p

But this also begs the question of what happens to Posen? Would Austria seize it as well asand leave Prussia with only its name sake regions and Pomerania or does Prussia keep Posen as well? If Austria takes it I could see them using it to place their Palatine cousins in a place of power that they lost with Hungary gone. Maybe even merging with Brandenburg.

What happens to Galicia in this scenario? I'm also assuming that the Hungary that emerges includes Dalmatia in addition to OTL Transleithania.

I would assume that Galicia would be a very awkward looking but relevant appendage to the German state while this “Republic of Hungary” would include the lands originally demarcated during the OTL Austro-Hungarian compromise. That is of course till Hungary gets chewed between TTL Germany and Russia of course :p

I'm not sure if Germany would really be so lacking in a North Sea coast - Prussia's only contribution to Germany proper was really just Pomerania IMO. There's still the mass of Hanseatic cities and an extensive trade network that ought to be maintained. Rather I suppose Germany would become a bit like Russia, maintaining two fleets on either side of the continent.

I agree to this as well I just assume that compared to the Mediterranean fleet, in order to keep the peace with the British, the northern fleet would be smaller.
 
That was my thought as well, with the Habsburgs turning the state over to one of their many relatives made refugee by the revolutions in Italy, Hungary and elsewhere. When they’re not creating adhoc realms for them out of the Rhineland of course :p

But this also begs the question of what happens to Posen? Would Austria seize it as well asand leave Prussia with only its name sake regions and Pomerania or does Prussia keep Posen as well? If Austria takes it I could see them using it to place their Palatine cousins in a place of power that they lost with Hungary gone. Maybe even merging with Brandenburg.
Well they can do both... Brandeburg for a branch of the family and Rhineland for another... Is not like they have trouble in finding landless relatives...
 
Thanks all! Lots of interesting points.

To the several people who pointed out my error vis-à-vis the North Sea coast: fair point. Thanks for informing me of my error there.

@Germania09, I agree with you that Italy would be a determined opponent of Germany in TTL for irredentist reasons, and that France may well take an anti-German tone (though I don't think it's guaranteed; in OTL Britain and Russia had extremely tense relations and it would be easy for someone at the time to assume that, if there was a major war in Europe, surely Britain and Russia would be on opposite sides). I'm unsure about this:
Russia will be no doubt friendly to them initially due to common cause. I honestly doubt Hungary’s chaotic Republican structure is going to be looked well on by the Czar and the Habsurgs are going to want some payback so I expect so some sort of alliance between Germany and Russia in order to deal with it (Partition) Afterwards you never know they’ll hopefully resolve any other issues concerning the Balkans SOI and remain allies for years to come.

I don't think it's impossible, please don't misunderstand me. I'm not even saying that it's unlikely. But this does rely on St Petersburg and Vienna (Berlin of course wouldn't be the capital of this Germany) being able to agree a mutually satisfactory solution for how to partition the Balkan peninsula between their spheres of influence for after they have expelled the Ottomans. They might be able to do this. They might not.
I would assume so since Austria up to this point has championed itself as a defender of the liberties of the small German states. I would think the government structure would look very mixed with some areas having much more internal autonomy such as the aforementioned German states, than others like the Rhineland.

This all sounds reasonable. One thing I would mention, though, is that ATL Germany, to a very great extent, mostly is Austria. After Napoleon's mega-Bavaria didn't survive the Napoleonic Wars (unlike in OTL) due to the Wittelsbachs' humiliation and disgrace, and with Prussia expelled from the German Confederation, there's basically no-one in Germany who can really stand up to Austria. Silesia, Bavaria and Bohemia are Austrian, and the former Prussian Rhineland might not be Austrian but (I'd think) will at least be put under a monarch whom the Emperor of Austria deems suitably pro-Austrian. If you'll forgive this (I'm sorry, it's hurriedly and very crudely done) I'll show you a map:


CrudeAustriaPrussia.png


Who in Germany really has the strength to defy Austria now? Saxony? Hanover? (The latter no longer being in personal union with Britain, of course.) Neither of them are big enough.

So, although the Emperor of Austria wouldn't tread too much on the smaller states' shoes, it's hard to see how his voice in the German Confederation wouldn't carry the day in most cases. I designed the scenario to be this way because the scenario I meant to explore wasn't just "the German Confederation does not fall", it was "the German Confederation becomes the nation of Germany"—which is considerably more difficult for AH to achieve! For such a thing to evolve from the weak, decentralised OTL German Confederation, that requires enough strength of the most powerful German state, be it Prussia or Austria or whoever else, so that the central authority of the German Confederation isn't a meaningless paper-tiger.

What happens to Galicia in this scenario? I'm also assuming that the Hungary that emerges includes Dalmatia in addition to OTL Transleithania.

I should mention that I wasn't assuming Hungary would get Dalmatia. I did conceive of Hungary (that is, pre-Trianon Hungary/Transleithania, including plenty of lands whose peoples aren't really very Hungarian at all) separating from Austria, for several reasons; but I envisaged Austria still having a strong Mediterranean presence, not only Venice and Trieste while losing literally everything in Eastern Europe.

Galicia, however, I don't see as tenable. Look at this (anachronistic of course, it's pre-WWI Austria-Hungary, it's even got Bosnia in it, but it shows enough to illustrate what I mean):


1280px-Austria-Hungary_map.svg.png


Without Hungary, Galicia is a long salient connected to core Austrian/German territory (Bohemia and Silesia) by a thin strip of land, easily severed. Surely that would be indefensible.
unless
I think Austria might get more of Poland.

In that case, if Germany (I mean, Germany with its capital in Vienna) rules more of Poland, maybe Galicia can be defensible. I'm not sure how that would come about, though, other than taking Poznan from Prussia. Taking Silesia and the Prussian Rhineland is already huge; if Germany delves into Poznan and we're looking at the annihilation of Prussia as a great power at all.

That was my thought as well, with the Habsburgs turning the state over to one of their many relatives made refugee by the revolutions in Italy, Hungary and elsewhere. When they’re not creating adhoc realms for them out of the Rhineland of course :p

But this also begs the question of what happens to Posen? Would Austria seize it as well asand leave Prussia with only its name sake regions and Pomerania or does Prussia keep Posen as well? If Austria takes it I could see them using it to place their Palatine cousins in a place of power that they lost with Hungary gone. Maybe even merging with Brandenburg.

See above. I mean, it's possible that we could be talking about Prussia stripped of Poznan, stripped even of all of Brandenburg, and reduced to basically just East Prussia around Königsberg. But that sounds like… well… a bit much for one war. It's hard to see how Britain, Russia and France would tolerate that; I would think they'd all be pretty alarmed if the Austrian Empire grew so much, so quickly, and turned a fellow great power into an irrelevant statelet in a single blow. Supposing that France is busy in Mexico could solve one out of three, on that matter, but it wouldn't stop Britain and Russia from getting unhappy with Habsburg Germany's excessive expansion.

Bits of Brandenburg and/or bits of Prussian Poland are one thing. Taking the whole cake seems a bit too dangerous for Vienna to risk it, IMO, for fear of foreign intervention in the Prusso-German War if they get too greedy.

Well they can do both... Brandeburg for a branch of the family and Rhineland for another... Is not like they have trouble in finding landless relatives...

They might not have Brandenburg, but the Prussian Rheinprovinz is a big prize. It could be split into several pieces to reward Habsburg relatives displaced by earlier 19th-century conflicts, in a place nice and close to Vienna, not in some far Eastern European demesne but in Germany, safely under the Emperor-President's protection. This would have the added bonus that dividing power in the Prussian Rhineland would avoid making any single cadet-branch Habsburg too powerful for the throne's comfort.
 
Thanks all! Lots of interesting points.

To the several people who pointed out my error vis-à-vis the North Sea coast: fair point. Thanks for informing me of my error there.

@Germania09, I agree with you that Italy would be a determined opponent of Germany in TTL for irredentist reasons, and that France may well take an anti-German tone (though I don't think it's guaranteed; in OTL Britain and Russia had extremely tense relations and it would be easy for someone at the time to assume that, if there was a major war in Europe, surely Britain and Russia would be on opposite sides). I'm unsure about this:


I don't think it's impossible, please don't misunderstand me. I'm not even saying that it's unlikely. But this does rely on St Petersburg and Vienna (Berlin of course wouldn't be the capital of this Germany) being able to agree a mutually satisfactory solution for how to partition the Balkan peninsula between their spheres of influence for after they have expelled the Ottomans. They might be able to do this. They might not.


Well thanks I'm glad to help contribute somewhat. And no worries on misunderstanding ha

To be honest the idea of a Germany-Britain-Russia Axis was just the first possibility. And mostly came about in my head because without Germany acting as the big bad internationally, the British and French rivalry would start heating a bit more than OTL over the colonial race leading to divergent stands in alliances. Germany just acts as a good medium between Russia and Britain with all three have interests that in that scenario overlap enough that an alliance of convenience sprung up, sorta like OTL. I also could see the reverse where the French see the Habsburg led Germany as a decent compromise candidate than a Prussia led one, or instead of Russia you have a Germany-French-Britain. I guess it's a problem of so much food for thought with the Butterflies and not enough time to chew through it all lol.

This all sounds reasonable. One thing I would mention, though, is that ATL Germany, to a very great extent, mostly is Austria. After Napoleon's mega-Bavaria didn't survive the Napoleonic Wars (unlike in OTL) due to the Wittelsbachs' humiliation and disgrace, and with Prussia expelled from the German Confederation, there's basically no-one in Germany who can really stand up to Austria. Silesia, Bavaria and Bohemia are Austrian, and the former Prussian Rhineland might not be Austrian but (I'd think) will at least be put under a monarch whom the Emperor of Austria deems suitably pro-Austrian. If you'll forgive this (I'm sorry, it's hurriedly and very crudely done) I'll show you a map:


View attachment 441696

Who in Germany really has the strength to defy Austria now? Saxony? Hanover? (The latter no longer being in personal union with Britain, of course.) Neither of them are big enough.

So, although the Emperor of Austria wouldn't tread too much on the smaller states' shoes, it's hard to see how his voice in the German Confederation wouldn't carry the day in most cases. I designed the scenario to be this way because the scenario I meant to explore wasn't just "the German Confederation does not fall", it was "the German Confederation becomes the nation of Germany"—which is considerably more difficult for AH to achieve! For such a thing to evolve from the weak, decentralised OTL German Confederation, that requires enough strength of the most powerful German state, be it Prussia or Austria or whoever else, so that the central authority of the German Confederation isn't a meaningless paper-tiger.

I love the map, so no worries it is in my opinion definitely not crude considering it's been a while since I've seen one so detailed. It really does bring context to the scenario. You're right of course the Emperor as president of the Confederation and largest and most powerful member state, would no doubt be able to force through any issue it brought before the Diet in Frankfurt or now Vienna in this future state, they still would go through the pretext that the member state voices do matter. Otherwise they might as well act like those warmongering Prussians :p

I would think that the Emperor would turn the Rhineland into a sort of grandiose consolation prize if you will for the now homeless royal relatives. Much easier to carve a new Grand Duchies and Principalities for them there than try to regain the ones lost in Italy and elsewhere. It also has the side benefit of good PR to the member states, seeing as they're creating new member states rather than just annexing everything. I could see him doing the same in Posen or Brandeburg, except handing that chunk of land over to his Palatinate whom were by all extension the Hungarian branch of the Habsburg family and probably would have had the most "skin in the game" so to speak. They having being at the forefront of all that chaos from the Hungarian revolt.

I should mention that I wasn't assuming Hungary would get Dalmatia. I did conceive of Hungary (that is, pre-Trianon Hungary/Transleithania, including plenty of lands whose peoples aren't really very Hungarian at all) separating from Austria, for several reasons; but I envisaged Austria still having a strong Mediterranean presence, not only Venice and Trieste while losing literally everything in Eastern Europe.

That was my thought as well, I guess in my head TTL Hungary would be comprise of regions 16,17,5 from the map you posted. Austria in this scenario will still command a serious naval presence in the Adriatic and Mediterranean beyond.

Galicia, however, I don't see as tenable. Look at this (anachronistic of course, it's pre-WWI Austria-Hungary, it's even got Bosnia in it, but it shows enough to illustrate what I mean):


1280px-Austria-Hungary_map.svg.png


Without Hungary, Galicia is a long salient connected to core Austrian/German territory (Bohemia and Silesia) by a thin strip of land, easily severed. Surely that would be indefensible.

Holding Galicia at all makes it part of the fun :p But I can see what you mean, without Posen added to the annexation it would be hard to defend it which may lead to it at the time being traded to Hungary in the peace agreement in exchange for more land elsewhere, say region 5 from that map. I just figure somewhere in my head that the Habsburgs would hold onto it somehow for some reason. In the scenario that they lose it without compensation the Austrians may seek to rectify that loss out of Prussian territory...

unless

In that case, if Germany (I mean, Germany with its capital in Vienna) rules more of Poland, maybe Galicia can be defensible. I'm not sure how that would come about, though, other than taking Poznan from Prussia. Taking Silesia and the Prussian Rhineland is already huge; if Germany delves into Poznan and we're looking at the annihilation of Prussia as a great power at all.

I think any war where the fate is rulership of Germandom is concerned excessiveness is going to be a tad forgiven especially in something so passionately believed in. My reasoning is that Austria isn't going to be satisfied unless it makes sure that Prussia cannot be in a position again to obtain GP status. Though I can see where you're coming from but I suspect that whether it's Brandenburg or Posen one of them would have to be given over to the Austrians. The Emperor being pressured by the Confederate members to choose Brandenburg in order to unify all of German territory. I honestly would not envy the Poles that got stuck under Prussian rule regardless of the peace.

See above. I mean, it's possible that we could be talking about Prussia stripped of Poznan, stripped even of all of Brandenburg, and reduced to basically just East Prussia around Königsberg. But that sounds like… well… a bit much for one war. It's hard to see how Britain, Russia and France would tolerate that; I would think they'd all be pretty alarmed if the Austrian Empire grew so much, so quickly, and turned a fellow great power into an irrelevant statelet in a single blow. Supposing that France is busy in Mexico could solve one out of three, on that matter, but it wouldn't stop Britain and Russia from getting unhappy with Habsburg Germany's excessive expansion.

Bits of Brandenburg and/or bits of Prussian Poland are one thing. Taking the whole cake seems a bit too dangerous for Vienna to risk it, IMO, for fear of foreign intervention in the Prusso-German War if they get too greedy.

Yeah I believing now too that it would be too much and tbh honest I was pretty hyper earlier today with the posts so I got carried away but as I'm writing this response I'm beginning to think if the only excessive land grabbing allowed would be Brandenburg. Leaving Prussia with the remaining territories. Researching more into the mindset of the time, I believing too that grabbing much more than those areas: Rhineland, Silesia, Brandenburg/Posen(?) would prompt more bartering and international arbitration/negotiation than Austria would want to get into. I suspect that Brandenburg would be probably the most likely due to the again mentioned pressure the Emperor would face to unite all member states of the German states which Brandenburg was compared to Posen being just more Poles. It just depends on the mindset at the peace talks.

Definitely a fine balancing act will have to be made.


They might not have Brandenburg, but the Prussian Rheinprovinz is a big prize. It could be split into several pieces to reward Habsburg relatives displaced by earlier 19th-century conflicts, in a place nice and close to Vienna, not in some far Eastern European demesne but in Germany, safely under the Emperor-President's protection. This would have the added bonus that dividing power in the Prussian Rhineland would avoid making any single cadet-branch Habsburg too powerful for the throne's comfort.

This pretty much, the Rhineland may not be Italy but is a damn sight better than sitting around in the Imperial court with a useless title to land no longer yours.
 
Actually, a Poland more or less has Upper Silesia and Interwar borders or Oder-Glatzer Neisse is part of the designs of the Habsburgs...Maria Theresa and Frederick Augustus had that plan, that would be if Austria would want to restore Poland from Galicia.
 
This all sounds reasonable. One thing I would mention, though, is that ATL Germany, to a very great extent, mostly is Austria. After Napoleon's mega-Bavaria didn't survive the Napoleonic Wars (unlike in OTL) due to the Wittelsbachs' humiliation and disgrace, and with Prussia expelled from the German Confederation, there's basically no-one in Germany who can really stand up to Austria. Silesia, Bavaria and Bohemia are Austrian, and the former Prussian Rhineland might not be Austrian but (I'd think) will at least be put under a monarch whom the Emperor of Austria deems suitably pro-Austrian. If you'll forgive this (I'm sorry, it's hurriedly and very crudely done) I'll show you a map:

Great map, though I'm always uncertain about Vienna being the capital of an Austrian-led Germany. It's so close to the border.
 
Great map

Thanks!

though I'm always uncertain about Vienna being the capital of an Austrian-led Germany. It's so close to the border.

I agree it's uncomfortably close to Germany's southern border. If I were a hypothetical German decision-maker, starting from a blank slate, I wouldn't put the capital there. But here the Germans aren't starting from a blank state. Vienna is definitely the capital of Austria, and Austria is the leading German state and is more powerful than all the other states of Germany put together; the Emperor of Austria is President of the German Confederation always. So the capital of Austria is always going to be the de facto capital of Germany, no matter what anyone de jure says.

Theoretically Austria could move its capital to Nürnberg or Linz or Prague or suchlike in order to be more central (since Munich and Graz are also close to the border so they wouldn't be much of an improvement)… but would the Habsburg emperors really be willing to do that?
 
Thanks!



I agree it's uncomfortably close to Germany's southern border. If I were a hypothetical German decision-maker, starting from a blank slate, I wouldn't put the capital there. But here the Germans aren't starting from a blank state. Vienna is definitely the capital of Austria, and Austria is the leading German state and is more powerful than all the other states of Germany put together; the Emperor of Austria is President of the German Confederation always. So the capital of Austria is always going to be the de facto capital of Germany, no matter what anyone de jure says.

Theoretically Austria could move its capital to Nürnberg or Linz or Prague or suchlike in order to be more central (since Munich and Graz are also close to the border so they wouldn't be much of an improvement)… but would the Habsburg emperors really be willing to do that?
Well maybe Frankfurt can stay as official capital with Vienna as true center of the power (exactly like the HRE).That would work for you?
 
Well maybe Frankfurt can stay as official capital with Vienna as true center of the power (exactly like the HRE).That would work for you?

That sounds likely.

Of course, having the true centre of power close to the border is still a problem for defensibility, but I don't see how that could be avoided given the reality that TTL Germany is an Austrian-led project.
 
That sounds likely.

Of course, having the true centre of power close to the border is still a problem for defensibility, but I don't see how that could be avoided given the reality that TTL Germany is an Austrian-led project.
Well Vienna had survived centuries in that position and if the future situations will make necessary the transfer of the court to Preague or Frankfurt they will do it...
 
Actually, a Poland more or less has Upper Silesia and Interwar borders or Oder-Glatzer Neisse is part of the designs of the Habsburgs...Maria Theresa and Frederick Augustus had that plan, that would be if Austria would want to restore Poland from Galicia.

How exactly do they pull that off, though, given that the core of that would-be state is Russian, not Prussian territory? I would think that just hacking off a piece of a neutral nation that was assigned said piece at the last conference to decide the balance of power in Europe just to attain a dynastic goal would undoubtedly invite the other GPs to intervene in the situation.
 
How exactly do they pull that off, though, given that the core of that would-be state is Russian, not Prussian territory? I would think that just hacking off a piece of a neutral nation that was assigned said piece at the last conference to decide the balance of power in Europe just to attain a dynastic goal would undoubtedly invite the other GPs to intervene in the situation.
They could give Poznań, Kraków, Oswięcim & Zator and Galicia to some cousin, keping it in customs union with the Germany makes discontinous territory less of a problem.

Then again I suspect that Galicia would have been occupied by Russia in this scenario.

Btw. what is supppsed to be that strange shape in Poznań?
 
Btw. what is supppsed to be that strange shape in Poznań?

A map that was drawn in a hurry by an exhausted, sleepless academic at 1:00 in the morning. That's why.

There's lots of things wrong with it, I know. Germany's southern border with Italy and Hungary is totally wrong, just for a start.
 
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