Umm, the problem is reorganization is a little anachronical (based in otl when german was defeated and all noblity lost power) so that is why raise some eyebrown but can be pulled if the nobles are 'repaired' and some adjustement are made to keep pro-prussian vote in the bundesrat, so need a lot of political capital and lobbying but is pausable.
That's the reason I'm planning a gradual reorganization. Taking advantage on the aftermath of the 2nd War by the 1890s, some minor states (the Thuringian ones and some other) could be merged, maybe like a 'federation inside the federation', while some Prussian, Austrian and even Hessenian and Bavarian provinces could be upgraded to states (Bavarian Franconia was Protestant I think) and re-balance the power.
IOTL Prussia start to cede some power to the rest of Germany in the 1890s when insidious Bismarck was finally gone.
Your plan again a little anachronical but can be pulled, specially with new provinces added(from france, swizerland and belgium) and some changes in the east(like Galicia become poland, adding the baltic duchy and other changes)
I have thought about this, but I find this a bit complicated. Maybe at a later stage.
About other Chancellor? who? prince leopold?(the one who make the whole mess with the spanish sucession war), the Bavarian Prime Minister(as a compesation for bavaria reduced power), an austrian(as a compesation for the same')
Maybe someone from a minor state, that could be seen more 'neutral'. A guy from Hesse would be optimal, as it is a mixed religious area.
Do the TL, will be a pretty good one and have already all the info to do it
Thanks
I will start this by the Christmas Days, when I will have more free time.
Your idea is interesting but there are several flows.
I know. Thanks for your contribution
Lets start with Bismarck: I would decribe him as a prussian before a german who likes conservatism far better than liberalism but ultimatly is willing to use any of them to reach his goals. He is not crazed by german nationalism at all.
Yes, I'm aware. That's why I'm planning to evict Bismarck right after the 1871 victory, when nationalists would impose their visions over Bismarck's ideas. IOTL they managed to pull some measures over him, like the acquisition of Alsace-Lorraine, so it would be just a matter of pulling harder and make him to resign.
the 1866 war: you say that this is the point of divergence were Prussia wins a much bigger victory. But i dont think he can do that without others jumping in on the Austrian side. I mean mostly Russia. Napoleon hated Austria and really wanted Venezia for Italy and he thought he would get some territorial compensation for remaining neutral so as long as Prussia doesnt try to annex Austria here i dont think he would jump in.
Well, Russia has been recently hit at Crimea and suffered with the Polish uprising of 1863, so they would be (they were IOTL) reluctant to get involved in new conflicts during the 1860s unless they would affect them directly.
Moreover, I'm not thinking about Prussia storming Austria, just pushing it to a more unstable situation, enough for making Hungarian elites to prefer full independence over Ausgleich.
But why would Prussia win a bigger victory? I mean this victory was enough for them to get anything they wanted.
Make the Prussian troops to enter in proper Austria, with a brief occupation maybe.
Austria falling apart after this bigger defeat:
Lets assume that this bigger defeat still happened and FJ resigned. His son (and wife too) were really loved in Hungary not like Franz Ferdinand later so i dont see any rebellion against him.
Love for a particular prince or empress would not make a realm to stay together. If Hungary splits, an Hungarian count would be upgraded to King, and this does not mean that relations with the Austrian Habsburgs should be bad.
Anyway, I have always believed that popular 'love' for Sissi have been such an overrated myth pushed by romantic stories of the era (and still today).
And what you say about only hungarian magnates supporting the Ausgleich is bullshit. The whole political elite was supportive of a peace with the Habsburgs. Those parts who didnt support it wanted more freedom inside AH but never the dissolution of AH. It may be that the simple peasant in his hut thought other wise but there was no political or any kind of leader whom he could follow
You may know that the main Hungarian politician than pushed for the Ausgleich, Ferenc Déak, was himself a hardcore nationalists that stated the right of Hungary for full independence, but he came up with the compromise as a way to protect the Hungarian interests without engaging in a new conflict with Austria. Still, he had to convince many of his fellowmen.
After 1866, the Austrian Empire was a broken toy with huge state debt and financial crisis. It was on the brink of complete implosion, not like 1848. The Ausgleich (unwanted by dumb FJ and many conservative Austrian elites) just saved the Empire at the eleventh hour. Simply make Austria a bit more weak in the eyes of Hungarians, and there would have not been a point of return.
If you really want for hungary to break away it should be during and as a result of the austro-prussian war - before the Ausgleich. On the prussian side György Klapka - an exiled general from 1848 - organized a legion that was supposed to go to Hungary. I think the chance of succes for them really low and even if they had succeded in breaking into Hungary and incurring a new revolution i dont really think Bismarck would support them after he got what he wanted.
I considered this as well but I do not see it clear. I prefer the scenario of 'controlled implosion' with Austria too weak to avoid it. And I think this would have helped the later union of the Austrian states with Germany.
Anyway if things go as you say and Austria is defeated and is weaker much weaker after 1866 then OTL it would want and need even more an Ausgleich like treaty with Hungary - Hungary might even get better terms wich would make an even bigger supporter of it later.
Probably Austria would have wanted the Ausgleich then, but Hungary (who proposed it IOTL) would not. 'Better terms' means independence,as the Ausgleich de facto created two states with a shared monarchy, army and little more. Mind that Hungarian nationalists only wanted independence and coped with the Ausgleich to avoid more conflicts (1849 still in the memory) and also many German Austrian nationalists prefered an alliance with Germany than making more concessions to the non-German nations of the Empire.
But lets assume that all this happened and Austria has a new ruler and Hungary broke away (i dont think Austria would let Hungary go without a serious fight). Why would this new Austria fall to peaces?
Austria would not let by their own will, but maybe felt unable to prevent it. Austria could not prevent implosion in 1918, because of the bad post-war situation.
Considering the particular composition of Cisleithania, it would be so hard for a weak Austria to retain disconnected territories like Dalmatia (moreover if Croatia gets independence) or Galicia. Bohemia-Moravia also wanted independence (IOTL they proposed a Triple Monarchy when the Ausgleich) and if Prussia keeps the occupation more time, it would have been easier.
The most likely result is a 'provisional Ausgleich' between proper Austria and Bohemia-Moravia (before joining Germany as separate states, but both ruled by Habsburgs) and controlled partition of Galicia.
And if anyone believes that Hungary would willingly trade its western border region for Dalmatia knows nothing of Hungary of that time. They were crazy about the lands of the Saint Stephen Crown and would never give up or trade away integral parts of it. Not to mention simple logic: the western border region was never a separate entity -its part of Hungary proper if you like and was populated by mostly germans and a small hungarian minority. Dalmatia would be part of Croatia and no hungarias lived there.
I discarded the idea of exchanging the Western Strip with Dalmatia. But it's easy to imagine that Germans living in the Western Strip would easily revolt as they would not accept to live in an independent Hungary, in the same way that Bohemian Germans prevented a full independent Czech state.
If Hungary wants Austria to recognize their broad borders (including Banat, Transylvania etc.) they should lend the areas where Germans are majority. Just like somehow happened in 1918. It's a quid pro quo.
Even if Austria is weak and Hungarians can push for independence at a point, Hungarians were not that dumb to foresee that once Austria would be recovered, Vienna would fight for the German territories at least. If they want stable and widely recognized borders, such concession is mandatory.
The 1870 war:
I think i have to point why the resoults were accepted by the GPs IOTL: Brittain saw France as a bigger treat for the status quo and peace around that time so they were inicially happy with Napoleons fall. And the new Germany wasnt the Germany of 1914: it had not much more population than France around 1870.
Yes, my point is that UK would not bother that much at this stage, as they loved to see Second French Empire badly defeated.
Solution:
Let the point of divergence be the Ausgleich: Austria loses bad in 1866 but not as badly as OTL so it remains strong enough not to make the treaty with the hungarians right away. Than let them ally France in 1870 which would destroy them: the german populace doesnt like this. After the big defeats and a succesfull Klapka expedition to Hungary which with the austrian and french defeats and whitout the Ausgleich result in a revolution in Hungary. In the end the defeats and the initially hated alliance with the french would lead to a revolution between the austrian germans. At the peace treaty Prussia annexes Austria and gives Russia Galicia as compensation. Hungary is independent but is forced to accept a Habsburg ruler - with very limited power though. Austria is admitted to Germany in two parts - Austria and Bohemia maybe both but Bohemia for sure under a Habsburg ruler. Its a good thing in Bohemia cause there would be some who dont like the germans but are loyal to the Dinasty. If you really dont want Dalmatia could be given to Hungary in the peace.
The question is of course: would be Prussia strong enough for this? I dont think so but its still more likely than your version.
OK, I would think about it
