damein fisher
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What if instead of the United States, Austria-Hungary had mediated the Exchange between Japan and Russia? Would Japan gain more, and if so, what more?
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What if instead of the United States, Austria-Hungary had mediated the Exchange between Japan and Russia? Would Japan gain more, and if so, what more?
Well, Austria-Hungary would be far more pro-Japan instead of Russia, but I don't think Japan will gain anymore land than it already has. Austria-Hungary would maybe use this sentiment to get Japan to become more pro-Austria-Hungary.
If Japan becomes part of the Central Powers in WW I as a result, Russia could be in serious trouble in 1914 (assuming not much else changes). Japan could also try to take European colonies in Southeast Asia since Britain and France are so heavily committed in Europe. The question then is if the forces that are already there in 1914 are enough to deal with the IJA. If not, then how much strength can the British and French divert from the Western Front to Southeast Asia?
Austro-Russian relations weren't that bad until the annexation crisis. Also, given that they do have conflicting interests in the Balkans, Russia could actually turn this to their advantage by yielding to the Habsburgs on some points behind the scenes.What if instead of the United States, Austria-Hungary had mediated the Exchange between Japan and Russia? Would Japan gain more, and if so, what more?
Austro-Russian relations weren't that bad until the annexation crisis. Also, given that they do have conflicting interests in the Balkans, Russia could actually turn this to their advantage by yielding to the Habsburgs on some points behind the scenes.
If the Habsburgs are in a particularly anti-Russian mood, Japan still isn't likely to gain much more, simply taking Port Arthur was enough to warrant the Triple Intervention after all.
Japan gets a bigger indemnity, maybe Sakhalin Island. Life changes remarkably little if the former, slightly more for the latter.
On paper, A-H's negotiation would make Germany unhappy due to the aforementioned reason but it would not piss off. As The Gunslinger typed, life would change slight more only. The second Reich was smart enough to not jeopardize its ally in A-H for a conflict in the Far-East. Also Russia also had ambition in Central Asia and Mongolia whose main opponent was the British Empire -- the Great Game. However, regardless of the negotiation party, the Russian (or Soviet governance) would keep more garrison in the Far East than in the OTL. If things went as in the OTL, it would benefit the German clandestine participation in the Civil War -- in Finland for example in about a decade later.What would Austria-Hungary be getting for *itself* out of mediating in a pro-Japanese manner. And, would doing so not piss off Germany, whose Emperor was trying to woo the Tsar and who encouraged Russia's Asian ambitions in the first place.
Austro-Russian relations weren't that bad until the annexation crisis. Also, given that they do have conflicting interests in the Balkans, Russia could actually turn this to their advantage by yielding to the Habsburgs on some points behind the scenes.
If the Habsburgs are in a particularly anti-Russian mood, Japan still isn't likely to gain much more, simply taking Port Arthur was enough to warrant the Triple Intervention after all.
Tibi088 hit a main point: whichever nation helped either Russia or Japan wanted to benefit from the negotiation. Out of the powers of the time, British Empire was the likely candidate to mediate the negotiation in favor of Japan. British and Russia Empire had been ambitious in Central Asia against each other -- the Great Game and British had been allying with Japan.This. If I remember correctly they made a deal during the war. Austria feared an italian war for some reason and Russia wanted to trasfer troops to the east. I might be wrong and I cant look it up right now. I also dont see why Japan would agree to A-H meditation. As for A-H: they would most likely make a better deal for Russia. They have nothing to gain by helping Japan. Whats it to Russia if they pay a bit more and loose the whole of Sakhalin? They will just be humilated and potentially more angry at A-H than at Japan if they feel A-H helped Japan. And Japan would still not be an AUstrian ally. Maybe if someone at Vienna saw potential to a Japanese alliance? ITOH they can use the goodwill of Russia - at least it cant hurt.
Japan gets a bigger indemnity, maybe Sakhalin Island. Life changes remarkably little if the former, slightly more for the latter.
Kaiser Wilhelm spend a lot of time ranting about the yellow peril. I don't see how Berlin and Tokyo could be part of the same alliance.If Japan becomes part of the Central Powers in WW I as a result, Russia could be in serious trouble in 1914 (assuming not much else changes). Japan could also try to take European colonies in Southeast Asia since Britain and France are so heavily committed in Europe. The question then is if the forces that are already there in 1914 are enough to deal with the IJA. If not, then how much strength can the British and French divert from the Western Front to Southeast Asia?
In the OTL, even after the Japanese victory of the Russo-Japanese War, voices within Imperial Russia wanted to give the whole island to Japan and some Japanese want the whole. However, that image was changed during and after Japanese Intervention in the Russian Civil War in early 1920s. The rising Soviet Union imaged Japan as an aggressor. Since then the Russo-Japanese relation sank and culminated in the armed conflicts in middle and late 1930s.
So given in the OTL that Japan in early 1900s was the weaker side of the War, the third party negotiated a long term peace in an ATL would give the whole Sakhalin island which action will angered Tzar Nick II. Therefore the third party shall be one that was already powerful itself, in international diplomacy and benefited from the negotiation. Great Britain would be a better choice than USA:
1) Great Britain and Imperial Russia had been involved in the Great Game in Central Asia. Great Britain's negotiation would already put pressure on Imperial Russia.
2) Great Britain and Japan had mutual interest in stemming Russian influence in Northern Asia that Japan would listen to GB's negotiation.
3) In Europe, GB still needed geographically Russia to put pressure on Germany on both sides of the German border. So GB could not afford to influenced too much on the negotiation that Russia simply broke off negotiation.
4) The Russian short story novelist Anton Chekhov described Sakhalin as hell just about a decade ago before the war so with Britain influence and pressure, Russia might just given up a land of penal colony.
5) Looking in retrospect, Japan developed the southern half more zealously and the population on the northern half jumped in number only when the Russian Civil War broke out. So in terms of economic developmental zeal, Japan could take the whole island.
6) The drawback from 5) would be more forced immigration for forced labor in coal mines or more by Japanese governance from East Asia, likely Korean and Chinese population. That would be bad in humanitarian perspective... but do either Russia or Japan cared about humanitarianism during those decades since Chekhov's travel?
7) Since the Russo-Japanese war, the Japanese navy had been building up in carrier while the Soviet made a comeback in submarine, cruisers and destroyers. The Red Army was essentially great at least in land warfare. Japanese maritime military was world-class, comparable to the American. Given respective military prowess, Japanese getting the whole island and Soviet holding onto the Eurasian continent were a balance.
The bottom-line was that shall getting the whole island make Japan way better in subsequent timeline? No
Well, that is good.... and it's because London was so openly pro-Japanese and anti-Russian and had every motivation to be why their offers of mediation would never fly. Nicky knows he'll be getting a raw deal by accepting terms hammered out by Britain, while the US was perceived as far more impartial.