WI Austria-Hungary mediates the Negotiations of the Russo-Japanese

What if instead of the United States, Austria-Hungary had mediated the Exchange between Japan and Russia? Would Japan gain more, and if so, what more?
 
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What if instead of the United States, Austria-Hungary had mediated the Exchange between Japan and Russia? Would Japan gain more, and if so, what more?

Well, Austria-Hungary would be far more pro-Japan instead of Russia, but I don't think Japan will gain anymore land than it already has. Austria-Hungary would maybe use this sentiment to get Japan to become more pro-Austria-Hungary.
 
Well, Austria-Hungary would be far more pro-Japan instead of Russia, but I don't think Japan will gain anymore land than it already has. Austria-Hungary would maybe use this sentiment to get Japan to become more pro-Austria-Hungary.

If Japan becomes part of the Central Powers in WW I as a result, Russia could be in serious trouble in 1914 (assuming not much else changes). Japan could also try to take European colonies in Southeast Asia since Britain and France are so heavily committed in Europe. The question then is if the forces that are already there in 1914 are enough to deal with the IJA. If not, then how much strength can the British and French divert from the Western Front to Southeast Asia?
 
If Japan becomes part of the Central Powers in WW I as a result, Russia could be in serious trouble in 1914 (assuming not much else changes). Japan could also try to take European colonies in Southeast Asia since Britain and France are so heavily committed in Europe. The question then is if the forces that are already there in 1914 are enough to deal with the IJA. If not, then how much strength can the British and French divert from the Western Front to Southeast Asia?

I don't think Japan would join the Central Powers just because Austria-Hungary negotiates peace (At least not initially) If Austria-Hungary threatens some larger action against Russia if they don't take the deal Japan has, Austria-Hungary might be like "We got your back Japan" But Japan can't take any Southeast Asian colonies. Japan at this point is a way too reliant on Britan to join the Central powers at this time. Japan can't join the Central Powers at the start of the war, but Austria-Hungary might try to cater them, later on, to join, like when Russia is on the verge of revolution, they might be able to focus solely on Russia, and split the army on Russia, and maybe the navy on Taiwan to reinforce the position of German Qingdao.
 
What if instead of the United States, Austria-Hungary had mediated the Exchange between Japan and Russia? Would Japan gain more, and if so, what more?
Austro-Russian relations weren't that bad until the annexation crisis. Also, given that they do have conflicting interests in the Balkans, Russia could actually turn this to their advantage by yielding to the Habsburgs on some points behind the scenes.

If the Habsburgs are in a particularly anti-Russian mood, Japan still isn't likely to gain much more, simply taking Port Arthur was enough to warrant the Triple Intervention after all.
 

raharris1973

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Austro-Russian relations weren't that bad until the annexation crisis. Also, given that they do have conflicting interests in the Balkans, Russia could actually turn this to their advantage by yielding to the Habsburgs on some points behind the scenes.

If the Habsburgs are in a particularly anti-Russian mood, Japan still isn't likely to gain much more, simply taking Port Arthur was enough to warrant the Triple Intervention after all.

I imagine the only Austro-Hungarian reason to wade into such a mediation would be dealmaking with Russia rather than Japan.

And the deal Austria-Hungary would want is "we get to annex Bosnia and Novi Pazar, and Serbia gets to be our chew toy"
 
If Austra-Hungary negotiated that peace, a probable ATL would be Japan taking the whole Sakhalin island instead of the southern half.

1) The island became the training base for specialized infantry in arctic or winter fighting.
1.2) From a port of the northwestern shore on the island, the island could become the springboard for more engaging Japanese navy into Outer Manchuria if a Japanese intervention during the Russian revolutions or 1930s to 1940s.
2) A-H negotiation would bring Japan into the spectacles in Europe. Although the better powers such as France, Britain and Germany may still regain Japan as a power below them. The negotiation could bring more military or economic deals among Japan and European powers.
2.2) Japan has been known for its navy and A-H had some industrial bases in modern day Czech republic for tanks, artillery and other infantry weapons that could help weapon development for infantry in both normal and winter specialist.
2.3) Note that Nikola Tesla was a Serbian before landing onto the USA for career prospects. Ferdinand Porsche became the chief designer in 1906 for Austro-Daimler which by in few turns of merging and split became Daimler AG. So AustraBalkan talents in technology could provide new influx of idea into Japan.
3) In reciprocity, given that Japanese officer could converse in the German language, Japanese expeditionary infantry could be assigned to area where German troops would not participate but symbolized political support. One possible area would be Finland when the civil war broken out as the Russian Civil war took place. Both Japan, Finland/Sweden?Norway located in the north and surrounded Russia.
3.1) However, successful Japan intervention in Finnish politics would make Soviet governance regard Japan as a much bigger threat than in the OTL. Then come the ww2, Japan would have much less chance to launch the combat in Lake Khasan or Khalkin Gol. Also, Stalin governance would put more troops stationed in the east. This turn of events seemed to benefit Russia more than short term gain from Japan.

In sum, A-H could lead more cooperation with the European powers and the northern half of the Sakhalin island to Japan.
 
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raharris1973

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What would Austria-Hungary be getting for *itself* out of mediating in a pro-Japanese manner.

And, would doing so not piss off Germany, whose Emperor was trying to woo the Tsar and who encouraged Russia's Asian ambitions in the first place.
 
Japan gets a bigger indemnity, maybe Sakhalin Island. Life changes remarkably little if the former, slightly more for the latter.
What would Austria-Hungary be getting for *itself* out of mediating in a pro-Japanese manner. And, would doing so not piss off Germany, whose Emperor was trying to woo the Tsar and who encouraged Russia's Asian ambitions in the first place.
On paper, A-H's negotiation would make Germany unhappy due to the aforementioned reason but it would not piss off. As The Gunslinger typed, life would change slight more only. The second Reich was smart enough to not jeopardize its ally in A-H for a conflict in the Far-East. Also Russia also had ambition in Central Asia and Mongolia whose main opponent was the British Empire -- the Great Game. However, regardless of the negotiation party, the Russian (or Soviet governance) would keep more garrison in the Far East than in the OTL. If things went as in the OTL, it would benefit the German clandestine participation in the Civil War -- in Finland for example in about a decade later.

For Japan getting the whole Sakhalin island would give her some more coal, oil, timber and some meager mineral resources that would not quench Japan need. In terms of development, Oji Paper Company had a mill in Toyohara, the provincial capital of Karafuto and charcoal mining was well developed. So one could extend that with Japan occupying the whole island, lumber and charcoal industries would be more developed, leading to more forced immigration from Korea and elsewhere.
 
Austro-Russian relations weren't that bad until the annexation crisis. Also, given that they do have conflicting interests in the Balkans, Russia could actually turn this to their advantage by yielding to the Habsburgs on some points behind the scenes.

If the Habsburgs are in a particularly anti-Russian mood, Japan still isn't likely to gain much more, simply taking Port Arthur was enough to warrant the Triple Intervention after all.

This. If I remember correctly they made a deal during the war. Austria feared an italian war for some reason and Russia wanted to trasfer troops to the east. I might be wrong and I cant look it up right now.

I also dont see why Japan would agree to A-H meditation.

As for A-H: they would most likely make a better deal for Russia. They have nothing to gain by helping Japan. Whats it to Russia if they pay a bit more and loose the whole of Sakhalin? They will just be humilated and potentially more angry at A-H than at Japan if they feel A-H helped Japan. And Japan would still not be an AUstrian ally. Maybe if someone at Vienna saw potential to a Japanese alliance? ITOH they can use the goodwill of Russia - at least it cant hurt.
 
This. If I remember correctly they made a deal during the war. Austria feared an italian war for some reason and Russia wanted to trasfer troops to the east. I might be wrong and I cant look it up right now. I also dont see why Japan would agree to A-H meditation. As for A-H: they would most likely make a better deal for Russia. They have nothing to gain by helping Japan. Whats it to Russia if they pay a bit more and loose the whole of Sakhalin? They will just be humilated and potentially more angry at A-H than at Japan if they feel A-H helped Japan. And Japan would still not be an AUstrian ally. Maybe if someone at Vienna saw potential to a Japanese alliance? ITOH they can use the goodwill of Russia - at least it cant hurt.
Tibi088 hit a main point: whichever nation helped either Russia or Japan wanted to benefit from the negotiation. Out of the powers of the time, British Empire was the likely candidate to mediate the negotiation in favor of Japan. British and Russia Empire had been ambitious in Central Asia against each other -- the Great Game and British had been allying with Japan.
 
In the OTL, even after the Japanese victory of the Russo-Japanese War, voices within Imperial Russia wanted to give the whole island to Japan and some Japanese want the whole. However, that image was changed during and after Japanese Intervention in the Russian Civil War in early 1920s. The rising Soviet Union imaged Japan as an aggressor. Since then the Russo-Japanese relation sank and culminated in the armed conflicts in middle and late 1930s.

So given in the OTL that Japan in early 1900s was the weaker side of the War, the third party negotiated a long term peace in an ATL would give the whole Sakhalin island which action will angered Tzar Nick II. Therefore the third party shall be one that was already powerful itself, in international diplomacy and benefited from the negotiation. Great Britain would be a better choice than USA:
1) Great Britain and Imperial Russia had been involved in the Great Game in Central Asia. Great Britain's negotiation would already put pressure on Imperial Russia.
2) Great Britain and Japan had mutual interest in stemming Russian influence in Northern Asia that Japan would listen to GB's negotiation.
3) In Europe, GB still needed geographically Russia to put pressure on Germany on both sides of the German border. So GB could not afford to influenced too much on the negotiation that Russia simply broke off negotiation.
4) The Russian short story novelist Anton Chekhov described Sakhalin as hell just about a decade ago before the war so with Britain influence and pressure, Russia might just given up a land of penal colony.
5) Looking in retrospect, Japan developed the southern half more zealously and the population on the northern half jumped in number only when the Russian Civil War broke out. So in terms of economic developmental zeal, Japan could take the whole island.
6) The drawback from 5) would be more forced immigration for forced labor in coal mines or more by Japanese governance from East Asia, likely Korean and Chinese population. That would be bad in humanitarian perspective... but do either Russia or Japan cared about humanitarianism during those decades since Chekhov's travel?
7) Since the Russo-Japanese war, the Japanese navy had been building up in carrier while the Soviet made a comeback in submarine, cruisers and destroyers. The Red Army was essentially great at least in land warfare. Japanese maritime military was world-class, comparable to the American. Given respective military prowess, Japanese getting the whole island and Soviet holding onto the Eurasian continent were a balance.

The bottom-line was that shall getting the whole island make Japan way better in subsequent timeline? No
Japan gets a bigger indemnity, maybe Sakhalin Island. Life changes remarkably little if the former, slightly more for the latter.
 

kernals12

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If Japan becomes part of the Central Powers in WW I as a result, Russia could be in serious trouble in 1914 (assuming not much else changes). Japan could also try to take European colonies in Southeast Asia since Britain and France are so heavily committed in Europe. The question then is if the forces that are already there in 1914 are enough to deal with the IJA. If not, then how much strength can the British and French divert from the Western Front to Southeast Asia?
Kaiser Wilhelm spend a lot of time ranting about the yellow peril. I don't see how Berlin and Tokyo could be part of the same alliance.
 
In the OTL, even after the Japanese victory of the Russo-Japanese War, voices within Imperial Russia wanted to give the whole island to Japan and some Japanese want the whole. However, that image was changed during and after Japanese Intervention in the Russian Civil War in early 1920s. The rising Soviet Union imaged Japan as an aggressor. Since then the Russo-Japanese relation sank and culminated in the armed conflicts in middle and late 1930s.

So given in the OTL that Japan in early 1900s was the weaker side of the War, the third party negotiated a long term peace in an ATL would give the whole Sakhalin island which action will angered Tzar Nick II. Therefore the third party shall be one that was already powerful itself, in international diplomacy and benefited from the negotiation. Great Britain would be a better choice than USA:
1) Great Britain and Imperial Russia had been involved in the Great Game in Central Asia. Great Britain's negotiation would already put pressure on Imperial Russia.
2) Great Britain and Japan had mutual interest in stemming Russian influence in Northern Asia that Japan would listen to GB's negotiation.
3) In Europe, GB still needed geographically Russia to put pressure on Germany on both sides of the German border. So GB could not afford to influenced too much on the negotiation that Russia simply broke off negotiation.
4) The Russian short story novelist Anton Chekhov described Sakhalin as hell just about a decade ago before the war so with Britain influence and pressure, Russia might just given up a land of penal colony.
5) Looking in retrospect, Japan developed the southern half more zealously and the population on the northern half jumped in number only when the Russian Civil War broke out. So in terms of economic developmental zeal, Japan could take the whole island.
6) The drawback from 5) would be more forced immigration for forced labor in coal mines or more by Japanese governance from East Asia, likely Korean and Chinese population. That would be bad in humanitarian perspective... but do either Russia or Japan cared about humanitarianism during those decades since Chekhov's travel?
7) Since the Russo-Japanese war, the Japanese navy had been building up in carrier while the Soviet made a comeback in submarine, cruisers and destroyers. The Red Army was essentially great at least in land warfare. Japanese maritime military was world-class, comparable to the American. Given respective military prowess, Japanese getting the whole island and Soviet holding onto the Eurasian continent were a balance.

The bottom-line was that shall getting the whole island make Japan way better in subsequent timeline? No

... and it's because London was so openly pro-Japanese and anti-Russian and had every motivation to be why their offers of mediation would never fly. Nicky knows he'll be getting a raw deal by accepting terms hammered out by Britain, while the US was perceived as far more impartial.
 
... and it's because London was so openly pro-Japanese and anti-Russian and had every motivation to be why their offers of mediation would never fly. Nicky knows he'll be getting a raw deal by accepting terms hammered out by Britain, while the US was perceived as far more impartial.
Well, that is good.
So let list the possible nations who could be the third party as negotiator.
1) GB, as discussed: Russia would not accept due to British pro-Japan.
2) France was also pro-Japanese but less open than the British.
3) A-H... competed with Russia for the Balkans. If GB's negotiation would be unfair to Russia due to competition in Central Asia, then the competition in the Balkans would be even more pronouncing for Russia not wanting A-H as the third party. In OTL, ww1 broke out due to ethnic tensions in the Balkans.
4) Germany: Russia would not accept.
5) Italy
6) Dutch controlled the East Indies in effect so Japan might not want a potential rivalry in near future as negotiation
7) USA had geopolitical conflict with Japan. Both nations were basically neighbors as modernized navy shortened the voyage over the Pacific. Note that about 7 years before the War, USA defeated Spain for the Philippines.

Between A-H and Italy, the OP picked a good topic in asking if A-H could be a negotiator. How about Italy... Maritime influence were crucial to both Italy and Japan so Italy shall be empathetic to Japan maritime interest against Russian approach into Japan influence. Also Italy and Russia were not involved in geopolitical complications against each other. Moreover, Italy was geographically a power behind A-H in when the Balkans was concerned. Italian concession of Tientsin held a garrison of few hundreds soldiers and few vessels.
 
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