WI: Austria and Russia call the Prussian "bluff" in 1791/1792

So in the joint Austro-Russian war with the Ottomans between 1787 and 1792, both the Austrians and the Russians were forced to end their wars early and cut their winning short (very short in the case of Austria) due to Prussian sabre rattling.

So what if the Austrians and Russians ignore Frederick William II's threats. Does Prussia actually enter the war?

If so what was the disposition of forces? The Austrian army of the period is qualitatively in peak form (although Laudon has kicked the bucket by this point), and the Russians have no less a man than Suvorov commanding their armies, where as the Prussians have the Duke of Brunswick as their top general.

If not (or if Prussia proves to be impotent) what would post-war Europe look like?
 
Austria wasn't economically in a state to fight two enemies on two fronts, I believe. The Brabantine Revolution and the unrest in Hungary thanks to Joseph's policies left the Habsburgs in a delicate situation that the Prussians could've easy exploited in war. Not so sure about Russia but two front wars tend to not go too well. Prussia striking the Austrians would be the Austrian's worst case scenario and Russia would be left to fight both, while the Ottomans would be buoyed up (Prussia wanted the Ottomans as a counterweight to or at least a distraction for the Austrians and Russians) and might not fold quite so quickly. Austria might just implode, which means an even messier Revolutionary period for all parties involved. No foreign intervention in France, either, since everyone's busy elsewhere.

If Austria and Russia keep beating on the Ottomans, then Austria might not lose the Serbs' faith but ends up in a worse financial state while Russia is liable to push to Constantinople while France has its arms tied and Britain just stares angrily.
 
People in AH.com use too much the "Austria just implode" card, I think that it is already a trope.
I couldn't agree more, Austria was actually in a surprisingly good shape until the rise of nationalism in the late 1800s. Really, the biggest internal threat to Austria was the Hungarians and the Habsburgs had plenty of experience dealing with them.
 
I mean, I get that Austrian collapse is a bit of a cliché but this is Joseph II we're talking about. The Belgians were in active revolt and the rest of the empire was frothing over his policies over taxation, German language enforcement, religion, etc. to the point he had to undo his reforms. He was dying of illness during the war, too, so that's no good either. The Hungarian nobility were actively against him, the Italians hated him, the Belgians revolted against him, and Leopold had to inherit that and get stuck in the French mess right after. Collapse might be cliché but it's probably the most likely time for it to happen pre-WWI, especially if Joseph II lives longer.
 
this is Joseph II we're talking about.
No, he's been dead for over a year by the time of Austrian withdrawal from Ottoman territory (and the same can almost be said for the Brabant revolution). Leopold II is the Holy Roman Emperor who backed down in 1791 and pacified the Austrian Netherlands the previous year.
 
So in the joint Austro-Russian war with the Ottomans between 1787 and 1792, both the Austrians and the Russians were forced to end their wars early and cut their winning short (very short in the case of Austria) due to Prussian sabre rattling.

So what if the Austrians and Russians ignore Frederick William II's threats. Does Prussia actually enter the war?

If so what was the disposition of forces? The Austrian army of the period is qualitatively in peak form (although Laudon has kicked the bucket by this point), and the Russians have no less a man than Suvorov commanding their armies, where as the Prussians have the Duke of Brunswick as their top general.

If not (or if Prussia proves to be impotent) what would post-war Europe look like?

There is Sweden that also threatened to intervene. Intervention against Russia is harder if not wasteful. This was the era that the Russian were at their height all the way until the 1820s.

Coming to Austria, Austria military might be at their peak (which I have to disagree, I would go for early 18th century, Eugene of Savoy era...) how are they gonna deal with a two front war? Are they still going after their goals in Ottoman territory or defend Bohemia?

And there is the execution of Louis XVI.
 
People in AH.com use too much the "Austria just implode" card, I think that it is already a trope.

True, true... just as Russia and co easily divide Ottoman Europe and its Middle Eastern and Egyptian provinces break apart immediatly afterwards. At least the for me it is cliche.
 
There is Sweden that also threatened to intervene. Intervention against Russia is harder if not wasteful. This was the era that the Russian were at their height all the way until the 1820s.

Coming to Austria, Austria military might be at their peak (which I have to disagree, I would go for early 18th century, Eugene of Savoy era...) how are they gonna deal with a two front war? Are they still going after their goals in Ottoman territory or defend Bohemia?
By peak form I didn't mean that they had surpassed the greatness of Eugene (though I'm more of an Archduke Charles fan so I would say that they were heading in that direction) I mostly meant that they had finally made up for the time lost under Charles VI.

As to how the two front war would go, I'm really unsure as there's a lot of variables. How viable were the Ottoman armies at this time? Does Prussia ignore the Russian front and focus everything on another drive into Bohemia or does it split its forces in order to guard against another Berlin raid? How much of the Russian and Austrian armies were committed to the Ottoman front, Austria was able to send a force of seemingly unrecorded size to the low countries the previous year?

And there is the execution of Louis XVI.
Yeah that's going to complicate things. Though would the flight to Varennes still happen if Austria is assuming a war footing with Prussia? Louis had been secretly contacting foreign heads of state and would be aware that there would be no Austrian Expedition waiting for him in the Austrian Netherlands.

True, true... just as Russia and co easily divide Ottoman Europe and its Middle Eastern and Egyptian provinces break apart immediatly afterwards. At least the for me it is cliche.
Same, people here tend to oversell nationalism.
 
People in AH.com use too much the "Austria just implode" card, I think that it is already a trope.
Agreed. If Austria could have reigned in the Hungarians before the rise of nationalism they would be far from the shrinking flower they seem to have been irl
 
Agreed. If Austria could have reigned in the Hungarians before the rise of nationalism they would be far from the shrinking flower they seem to have been irl

Something always came up, they didn't really acquire the bulk of hungary until Leopold I and then boom War of Spanish succession. Best chance was Joseph I & Charles VI, Joseph died too early and Charles lacked a son weakening his hand. Only other time I can think of was Rudolf II, and he messed up.
 
Top