WI: Augustus doesn’t outlive so many Julio-Claudians?

In one of history’s ironies, the relatively frail Augustus managed to outlive almost all of his potential successors. Let us suppose that does not happen. Instead, either he dies earlier or they are less unfortunate.

So, upon his death, we have about a half dozen men waiting in the wings, men like Agrippa, Tiberius, Drusus, etc. Its hard to say exactly who would be in this group, since if some live, others might never be born (Marcellus is an obvious example). Young and old, with varying levels of experience but all part of the family in some fashion.

I am intrigued by Adrian Goldsworthy’s supposition that Augustus might have had in mind some sort of oligarchy under an informal College of Princepes, with his extended family governing jointly after his death. I don’t find it particularly likely, given how spectacularly joint rule could fail (look at the Severans and the Constantinians, where blood ties did not stop some pretty brutal infighting), but then again, the Romans did resort to co-Emperors pretty quickly on, and pretty regularly.

So, what do you think is more likely? Relatively peaceful co-rule, or infighting until one is dominant? I’m personally inclined toward the latter, seeing the situation not too different from the Tetrarchy - it worked as long as Diocletian was there to make it work.
 
In one of history’s ironies, the relatively frail Augustus managed to outlive almost all of his potential successors. Let us suppose that does not happen. Instead, either he dies earlier or they are less unfortunate.

So, upon his death, we have about a half dozen men waiting in the wings, men like Agrippa, Tiberius, Drusus, etc. Its hard to say exactly who would be in this group, since if some live, others might never be born (Marcellus is an obvious example). Young and old, with varying levels of experience but all part of the family in some fashion.

I am intrigued by Adrian Goldsworthy’s supposition that Augustus might have had in mind some sort of oligarchy under an informal College of Princepes, with his extended family governing jointly after his death. I don’t find it particularly likely, given how spectacularly joint rule could fail (look at the Severans and the Constantinians, where blood ties did not stop some pretty brutal infighting), but then again, the Romans did resort to co-Emperors pretty quickly on, and pretty regularly.

So, what do you think is more likely? Relatively peaceful co-rule, or infighting until one is dominant? I’m personally inclined toward the latter, seeing the situation not too different from the Tetrarchy - it worked as long as Diocletian was there to make it work.

Well let's assume he dies in 23 BCE (as he became gravely ill in that year and somehow miraculously recovered). That POD means there's no second constitutional settlement, which is very significant. Before the second settlement, the office of princeps didn't even really exist, Augustus merely served as consul over and over again between 27 and 23 BCE, so any successor he designates (almost certainly Agrippa, who was still alive by this point, but wasn't yet married to Julia) would probably continue the trend of serving as consul every year, which the senators hated, but was necessary to maintain the legitimacy of Augustus' reign. So either Augustus would have to advise Agrippa of the need for a new constitutional settlement or Agrippa would have to figure it out on his own, although I doubt Agrippa would have shared the foresight and political instincts of Augustus.

So we'd probably be looking at Agrippa and Piso (who was Augustus' co-consul in 23 BCE) negotiating with the senate to keep Augustus' regime intact while arranging to grow Augustus' dynasty. One of the two men, or possibly Maecenas, would likely marry Julia (as she was a widow at the time) in order to gain legitimacy. I'm not sure what role Livia or Tiberius would play in this new regime, but it would likely be a very fragile political situation, and without the competent and stable guiding hand of Augustus, it's possible we'd just see a continuation of the civil wars.
 
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