WI: August III of Poland-Saxony dies early

[Uhura's Mazda]

Simple: August III/Friedrich August II, the King-Elector, dies before his father. Let's say 1720. His only child is about to die and his wife, Maria Josepha von Habsburg, is cast back onto the European marriage market. I'm not particularly fussed about who she marries, because her uncle Charles still has time to produce a male heir, so the whole Pragmatic Sanction thing doesn't matter that much yet. But feel free to speculate.

So when August II dies in approx. 1733 with no legitimate issue, the Electorate of Saxony goes to his second cousin Christian, Duke of Saxe-Weissenfels, who was a bit of a spendthrift, but won't do too much damage, dying half a decade later. His brother succeeds and may produce surviving sons ITTL. If not, there are a couple more junior lines, which IOTL died out before 1760. If this happens, I assume the Duke of Saxe-Weimar-Eisenach becomes the new Elector. So what does the future hold for the House of Wettin?

The biggest effects would be felt in Poland. Without a convenient son to be placed by force on the Polish throne, do the Russians still present an opponent to Stanislaw Leszczynski? If so, who? And if not, does the War of the Polish Succession still happen (under another name, obviously)?

 

[Vitruvius]

The Treaty of Berlin may hold and the Austrians and Russians may put forward Manuel of Ourem as the anti-French candidate. He could be a decent ruler, and without any other territories to speak of, would probably make ruling Poland his priority not just sucking money out of the place. So that might work out in Poland's favor but I doubt he could push through the kind of reforms that would really be needed. I would love to see a Polish army under Manuel join a Russo-Austrian force in combined assault on the Balkans, pick up where the Great Turkish War left off before the conflict with the French distracted the powers of the Holy League.

As for Saxony, I assume it regains its primacy amongst the Protestant electors. Beyond that I don't know. Would Austria make a play for Lusatia if the Albertine line completely dies out with the Wissenfels? I suppose that depends on what the Habsburg succession looks like but considering Lusatia's historic association with Bohemia and the fact that it was never possessed by anyone from the Ernestine branch I could see them agitating for its return. Though I suppose Prussia would object.

 

[Uhura's Mazda]

The Treaty of Berlin may hold and the Austrians and Russians may put forward Manuel of Ourem as the anti-French candidate. He could be a decent ruler, and without any other territories to speak of, would probably make ruling Poland his priority not just sucking money out of the place. So that might work out in Poland's favor but I doubt he could push through the kind of reforms that would really be needed. I would love to see a Polish army under Manuel join a Russo-Austrian force in combined assault on the Balkans, pick up where the Great Turkish War left off before the conflict with the French distracted the powers of the Holy League.

As for Saxony, I assume it regains its primacy amongst the Protestant electors. Beyond that I don't know. Would Austria make a play for Lusatia if the Albertine line completely dies out with the Wissenfels? I suppose that depends on what the Habsburg succession looks like but considering Lusatia's historic association with Bohemia and the fact that it was never possessed by anyone from the Ernestine branch I could see them agitating for its return. Though I suppose Prussia would object.

I thought the Infante never really had a chance? IBut he would definitely be slightly cooler than Stanislaw, being an underling of Prinz Eugen n' all.

Good call on Lusatia. I could see that arising in some sort of alt-Seven Years' War, given the timeframe and the Austro-Prussian rivalry coming to a head.

 

[lokaloki]

Can Jan Klemens/Kazimierz Branicki be a candidate, who will be supported by Peter?

 

[Uhura's Mazda]

Can Jan Klemens/Kazimierz Branicki be a candidate, who will be supported by Peter?

Which particular Peter would this be? Yes, he looks like a probable candidate, along with Michal Serwacy Wisniowiecki, Ernst Johann von Biron and the aforementioned Infante Manuel, Count of Ourem.

What are Stanislaw's chances against any of these?

 

[lokaloki]

Which particular Peter would this be?
What are Stanislaw's chances against any of these?

Peter the Great, tzar of Russia.

What is the position of Saxony in 1733? Is it an ally of Russia and an enemy of France and Stanislaw?

 

[Uhura's Mazda]

Peter the Great, tzar of Russia.

What is the position of Saxony in 1733? Is it an ally of Russia and an enemy of France and Stanislaw?

Peter the Great died in 1725. In the 1730s the Empress was Anna, but I guess ITTL Peter II could survive, shaking up Russian foreign policy in the process.

After August II's death, the new Elector will be Protestant. Pre-August, Saxon foreign policy was essentially limited to the HRE, but generally pro-Habsburg. HE probably won't be too interested in the whole Polish thing, especially with the limited funds available to him.

 

[lokaloki]

Peter the Great died in 1725.

Sorry, I thought about 1720, not about 1733.

After August II's death, the new Elector will be Protestant. Pre-August, Saxon foreign policy was essentially limited to the HRE, but generally pro-Habsburg. HE probably won't be too interested in the whole Polish thing, especially with the limited funds available to him.

Maybe, a compromise candidate is possible? Who will be supported both Russia and Habsburgs, and France?

I think, the heir of Polish crown will be discussed from 1720, in TTL.

 

[Vitruvius]

Good call on Lusatia. I could see that arising in some sort of alt-Seven Years' War, given the timeframe and the Austro-Prussian rivalry coming to a head.

Maybe the best solution is to partition it with Prussia. Prussia gets Lower Lusatia encompassing their exclave of Cottbus. Austria gets Upper Lusatia. Perhaps if Austria is in a strong position it could be used to satiate Prussia and protect Silesia.

As an aside Maria Josepha could be married to Manuel, it would possibly be a way to strengthen his position as candidate for the Polish throne. I know it doesn't count for much but the Habsburgs had made or were considering several marriage alliances with the Braganzas at the time so its not out of the question. It also ensures that Joseph I's eldest daughter is married to someone who won't cause Charles VI any trouble with Habsburg succession. Augustus didn't make much of a play for Austria OTL despite the fact that Maria Josepha was the elder daughter. Instead it was Charles Albert who went after the Imperial throne. But if she was remarried to someone more assertive who knows what could happen. By 1723 when she's on the marriage market again Charles VI will have to be seriously worrying about the Habsburg succession as he has two daughters and no living son and no child born in the last 5 years (he would have one more daughter OTL).

 

[Uhura's Mazda]

By 1723 when she's on the marriage market again Charles VI will have to be seriously worrying about the Habsburg succession as he has two daughters and no living son and no child born in the last 5 years (he would have one more daughter OTL).

With a PoD in c.1720, Charles VI has at least four years to produce a son. That's pretty easy: the whole Austrian Succession thing was really just a run of bad luck. But yes, Manuel would benefit from that marriage (although iirc he never married in all of his 70 years IOTL, so maybe he was happy as a bachelor?).