While Philip demanded various concessions from the Athenians as part of the peace treaty that was concluded after the defeat of the anti-Macedonian coalition in Chaeroneia, joining the Corinthian alliance and the war against the Persians wasn't part of any deal. Instead, it was Demades, one of the more outspoken pro-Macedonian figures, an influential political actor and, perhaps more importantly, the man that had started the negotiations with Philip in the aftermath of Chaeroneia, that managed to convince the Athenian demos to have the city join immediately. So, let's say that Demades (who, according to sources, had been wounded) is killed during the battle of Chaeroneia. Let's also say that the Athenians manage their retreat more well and instead of getting cornered in the so called "Aemon's ravine" near Mt. Thurios, they manage to retreat alongside the armies of the smaller Boetian cities towards Lebadeia.
This has various effects. For one, Philip seems to have been drunk at his victory in the beginning: reportedly, he left the Athenians that had fallen on the field of battle lying there, he insulted the Athenian prisoners and he mocked the text of the Athenian declaration of war; even if we don't take these at face value, it seems that Philip exhibited a good deal of arrogance and improper behaviour. Demades is mentioned to be the person who, after warning the king about the potential consequences of his actions and the fact that the latter were unbecoming of him, managed to change Philip's mind and convince him to start negotiations for a peace treaty with Athens. Furthermore, Philip has managed ITTL to kill and capture much less than 1,000 and 2,000 Athenians respectively.
Now, with Demades dead, we could perhaps assume that Philip would probably stick more to the hard line. This means that there is probably a weaker opposition to the continuation of the war and that the anti-Macedonian faction manages to hold its ground for longer than OTL and that the city would carry on its preparations for defence against Philip. These last measures are expanded, with the strengthening of the fortifications of the four forts on the border with Boetia (Panakton, Oinoe, Phyle, Leipsydrion, Ramnous) and, more importantly, the fortification of the area around the silver mines in Laurion, in order to prevent Philip from capturing them. The Macedonian army advances to the borders of Attica and Philip demands that the Athenians disband the Second Athenian Alliance, leave any coalitions they are members of, hand over Chersonesus to him and exile any leading figures that were involved in anti-Macedonian activities. These terms would basically neutralise Athens, since they would lose their dominant position in the Aegean and more importantly, allow Philip to threaten the city's grain supply and disorganise the opposition to those friendly to Macedonia and Philip; furthermore, Philip's actions in Boetia and Euboea (the placement of Macedonian garrisons in Kadmeia and Chalcis and the overthrow of democratic governments and their replacement by oligarchic regimes) have created anxiety in the city, which further helps the leaders of the anti-Macedonian party. The terms are rejected and the Athenians double down on the preparations, fortifying Laurion to protect the silver mines and managing to complete the defence works in Athens and Peiraeus. Thanks to these measures, Lykourgos' capable handling of the city's finances and Kallias' management of the theorika fund, prices soon stabilise (thanks to the continued flow of silver and lead from the Laurion mines, among other things) and the transfer of the theorika to the poorer citizens resumes, thus reducing economic and social pressures; the Athenian navy stil remains a potent force, while continued control over Chersonesus and the alliance with Byzantium help ensure that the grain from Cimmerius Bosporus still arrives to Athens.
Philip ponders on what to do next. The preparations of the Athenians have proceeded rather smoothly after Chaeroneia and his hard stance has helped keep the anti-Macedonian party influential and the dominant faction in Athenian politics. He understands that unlike the Boetians, the Athenians will probably not submit by force. He attempts to force the situation by conducting a raid in northern Attica, hoping that this would make the landowners of Attica and the inhabitants of the rural areas, the base of the pacifist currents inside the city, take action and perhaps influence the demos to agree to concede defeat. However, this backfires: the position of the pro-Macedonian faction worsens, while the recent military, economic and social measures of the city's leadership help keep things under control. Furthermore, Philip is encountering problems in Euboea, where the local koinon, still supported by the Athenians, refuses to yield; a surprise on Chalcis fails and results in significant losses for the attackers when the troops are intercepted by an Athenian squdron patrolling the local waters.
In addition to these setbacks, Philip has to worry about the Persians. If the coups and plots in the court at Susa are postponed just for a year (let's say that Bagoas decides to postpone his move - if we accept that Artaxerxes III was poisoned - or Artaxerxes III dies a bit later than OTL), then the Persian government would most likely be able to pay more attention to developments west of the Aegean; Philip's victory would certainly create anxiety. Thus, if Athens remained in the war, the Persians would be more willing to respond to an Athenian request for help than they were the last time the Athenians sent an embassy to that end. The possibility of the Persians actively backing the Athenians would be a very problematic development for Philip, since it would have the potential to get him stuck in a lengthy and difficult war.
All these factors combined then lead Philip to adopt a much more conciliatory stance: he offers to return the prisoners and the remains of the dead Athenians and proposes a new round of negotiations. The Athenians, who are starting to grow tired from the continuing mobilisation, accept. Soon, the two sides agree on various subjects, such as the cooperation on the matter of piracy and the possibility of a defensive alliance between the two states. However, Chersonesus remains a thorny issue between the two sides: Philip wants the Athenians to give it to him, while in Athens, the public is committed to maintaining Athenian rule in the area. In the end, over the objections of the anti-Macedonian faction, it is agreed that Chersonesus will remain under Athenian control with the excpeption of Cardia, which will be formally recognised as Macedonian territory, but that it will have to remain demilitarised, since Philip wants to conclude a peace deal as soon as possible.
Thus, by late 338 B.C., peace has finally returned to Greece. In Athens, the anti-Macedonian faction has managed to remain more popular and influential than OTL; furthermore, there is greater resentment against Philip and the pro-Macedonian faction has been weakened both by the loss of Demades and the general climate in the city. As such, when the news of the planned Corinthian alliance is brought and discussed in the city, the public is more decidedly against it: it isn't only the anti-Macedonian voices that carry greater weight, it is also the successful intervention of Phokion, who warns aboutthe responsibilities the city would have to undertake as a member of the alliance, which in turn helps strengthen the pacifists and the fact that relations with Philip are still rather cold; furthermore, the fact that Philip doesn't control Chersonesus and thus isn't able to control the Athenian food supply means that Athens is less willing to "play nice" with Philip beyond the absolutely necessary. The result is that the Athenians refuse to join the alliance and opt to remain neutral.*
So, what do you think the consequences of such a development would be?
*(I hope the scenario I just described makes sense and is reasonoable enough
)
This has various effects. For one, Philip seems to have been drunk at his victory in the beginning: reportedly, he left the Athenians that had fallen on the field of battle lying there, he insulted the Athenian prisoners and he mocked the text of the Athenian declaration of war; even if we don't take these at face value, it seems that Philip exhibited a good deal of arrogance and improper behaviour. Demades is mentioned to be the person who, after warning the king about the potential consequences of his actions and the fact that the latter were unbecoming of him, managed to change Philip's mind and convince him to start negotiations for a peace treaty with Athens. Furthermore, Philip has managed ITTL to kill and capture much less than 1,000 and 2,000 Athenians respectively.
Now, with Demades dead, we could perhaps assume that Philip would probably stick more to the hard line. This means that there is probably a weaker opposition to the continuation of the war and that the anti-Macedonian faction manages to hold its ground for longer than OTL and that the city would carry on its preparations for defence against Philip. These last measures are expanded, with the strengthening of the fortifications of the four forts on the border with Boetia (Panakton, Oinoe, Phyle, Leipsydrion, Ramnous) and, more importantly, the fortification of the area around the silver mines in Laurion, in order to prevent Philip from capturing them. The Macedonian army advances to the borders of Attica and Philip demands that the Athenians disband the Second Athenian Alliance, leave any coalitions they are members of, hand over Chersonesus to him and exile any leading figures that were involved in anti-Macedonian activities. These terms would basically neutralise Athens, since they would lose their dominant position in the Aegean and more importantly, allow Philip to threaten the city's grain supply and disorganise the opposition to those friendly to Macedonia and Philip; furthermore, Philip's actions in Boetia and Euboea (the placement of Macedonian garrisons in Kadmeia and Chalcis and the overthrow of democratic governments and their replacement by oligarchic regimes) have created anxiety in the city, which further helps the leaders of the anti-Macedonian party. The terms are rejected and the Athenians double down on the preparations, fortifying Laurion to protect the silver mines and managing to complete the defence works in Athens and Peiraeus. Thanks to these measures, Lykourgos' capable handling of the city's finances and Kallias' management of the theorika fund, prices soon stabilise (thanks to the continued flow of silver and lead from the Laurion mines, among other things) and the transfer of the theorika to the poorer citizens resumes, thus reducing economic and social pressures; the Athenian navy stil remains a potent force, while continued control over Chersonesus and the alliance with Byzantium help ensure that the grain from Cimmerius Bosporus still arrives to Athens.
Philip ponders on what to do next. The preparations of the Athenians have proceeded rather smoothly after Chaeroneia and his hard stance has helped keep the anti-Macedonian party influential and the dominant faction in Athenian politics. He understands that unlike the Boetians, the Athenians will probably not submit by force. He attempts to force the situation by conducting a raid in northern Attica, hoping that this would make the landowners of Attica and the inhabitants of the rural areas, the base of the pacifist currents inside the city, take action and perhaps influence the demos to agree to concede defeat. However, this backfires: the position of the pro-Macedonian faction worsens, while the recent military, economic and social measures of the city's leadership help keep things under control. Furthermore, Philip is encountering problems in Euboea, where the local koinon, still supported by the Athenians, refuses to yield; a surprise on Chalcis fails and results in significant losses for the attackers when the troops are intercepted by an Athenian squdron patrolling the local waters.
In addition to these setbacks, Philip has to worry about the Persians. If the coups and plots in the court at Susa are postponed just for a year (let's say that Bagoas decides to postpone his move - if we accept that Artaxerxes III was poisoned - or Artaxerxes III dies a bit later than OTL), then the Persian government would most likely be able to pay more attention to developments west of the Aegean; Philip's victory would certainly create anxiety. Thus, if Athens remained in the war, the Persians would be more willing to respond to an Athenian request for help than they were the last time the Athenians sent an embassy to that end. The possibility of the Persians actively backing the Athenians would be a very problematic development for Philip, since it would have the potential to get him stuck in a lengthy and difficult war.
All these factors combined then lead Philip to adopt a much more conciliatory stance: he offers to return the prisoners and the remains of the dead Athenians and proposes a new round of negotiations. The Athenians, who are starting to grow tired from the continuing mobilisation, accept. Soon, the two sides agree on various subjects, such as the cooperation on the matter of piracy and the possibility of a defensive alliance between the two states. However, Chersonesus remains a thorny issue between the two sides: Philip wants the Athenians to give it to him, while in Athens, the public is committed to maintaining Athenian rule in the area. In the end, over the objections of the anti-Macedonian faction, it is agreed that Chersonesus will remain under Athenian control with the excpeption of Cardia, which will be formally recognised as Macedonian territory, but that it will have to remain demilitarised, since Philip wants to conclude a peace deal as soon as possible.
Thus, by late 338 B.C., peace has finally returned to Greece. In Athens, the anti-Macedonian faction has managed to remain more popular and influential than OTL; furthermore, there is greater resentment against Philip and the pro-Macedonian faction has been weakened both by the loss of Demades and the general climate in the city. As such, when the news of the planned Corinthian alliance is brought and discussed in the city, the public is more decidedly against it: it isn't only the anti-Macedonian voices that carry greater weight, it is also the successful intervention of Phokion, who warns aboutthe responsibilities the city would have to undertake as a member of the alliance, which in turn helps strengthen the pacifists and the fact that relations with Philip are still rather cold; furthermore, the fact that Philip doesn't control Chersonesus and thus isn't able to control the Athenian food supply means that Athens is less willing to "play nice" with Philip beyond the absolutely necessary. The result is that the Athenians refuse to join the alliance and opt to remain neutral.*
So, what do you think the consequences of such a development would be?
*(I hope the scenario I just described makes sense and is reasonoable enough
)