WI: Assassination of Napoleon II by German nationalist?

[Hydraphantom]

Scenario:

• As per OTL, Napoleon defeat German states.
• Some patriotic Austrian/Prussian Military officers "deserted" and formed an insurgent, to avoid their country been held responsible by their operation.
• As per OTL, Napoleon invade Russia.
• The insurgents goes on to sabotage supply lines and conduct other guerrilla operations.
• Empress Marie-Louise with the new-born Napoleon II were on a tour in Confederation of the Rhine.
  
• The insurgents intercept them, captured both.
• Held Marie in captivity, hack Napoleon II into pieces and send it to Napoleon.
• Force Napoleon to personally return from Russian front, hopefully collapsing the French army earlier than OTL.

Don't take it too seriously, just a scenario jumped into my head.

 

[BigDestiny]

Visiting the Confederation of the Rhine when there are insurgents there is a bad idea, but then it was a bad idea for the Empress Elizabeth to go to Geneva with all the anarchists there. So it's doable.

If anything though, this will save the French army. The death of the heir under such circumstances will demand military response, and the invasion of Russia will halt where it is. The army will hunker down where it is while a large percentage of the troops move back to rescue the Empress and burn Germany to the ground.

By the time the invasion resumes, it will likely be spring and conditions will be better. Of course, Russia will have also had time to bolster their defenses, so who knows how things will play out.

 

[Hydraphantom]

Visiting the Confederation of the Rhine when there are insurgents there is a bad idea, but then it was a bad idea for the Empress Elizabeth to go to Geneva with all the anarchists there. So it's doable.

If anything though, this will save the French army. The death of the heir under such circumstances will demand military response, and the invasion of Russia will halt where it is. The army will hunker down where it is while a large percentage of the troops move back to rescue the Empress and burn Germany to the ground.

By the time the invasion resumes, it will likely be spring and conditions will be better. Of course, Russia will have also had time to bolster their defenses, so who knows how things will play out.

That's actually the condition I would like to see, forcing a large percentage of the troops to return from Russian front, which would significantly helped the Russian counterattack.
Best case scenario would be the Russian front collapse before the troops return to Germany, do they keep going to rescue their empress or turn back and help their comrades?
I think the insurgents would have popular supports among German people, which would bolster rank heavily and make the troops coming back to get them significantly harder to find them.
Or, albeit extremely unlikely, the bolstered insurgents would take the returning troops heads on and win the battle, such a miraculous victory would surely inspire much rebellion within German borders.
I was also thinking, since those officers had already, at least officially, deserted. Would the German states still be hold responsible for their actions?

 

[Alex Zetsu]

In OTL Napoleon II didn't last very long after the defeat of dad, so what differences does a premature death by assassination change much, aside from him cancelling Russian offensive?

 

[BigDestiny]

That's actually the condition I would like to see, forcing a large percentage of the troops to return from Russian front, which would significantly helped the Russian counterattack.
Best case scenario would be the Russian front collapse before the troops return to Germany, do they keep going to rescue their empress or turn back and help their comrades?
I think the insurgents would have popular supports among German people, which would bolster rank heavily and make the troops coming back to get them significantly harder to find them.
Or, albeit extremely unlikely, the bolstered insurgents would take the returning troops heads on and win the battle, such a miraculous victory would surely inspire much rebellion within German borders.
I was also thinking, since those officers had already, at least officially, deserted. Would the German states still be hold responsible for their actions?

The French army would dig in, trying to hold the line until the bulk of their forces returned. How well it worked would depend on when it happened and where they were when they were asked to stop.

Now legally, it would be difficult to blame the German states for the insurgents. But if Napoleon wanted to punish them for what happened, it certainly works as a pretext. It would probably be best in fact, because it cuts right at the concern you mentioned about popular support for the insurgents. It gives Napoleon the excuse he needs to burn his way through Germany until he gets what he wants.

 

[AvatarOfKhaine]

The French army would dig in, trying to hold the line until the bulk of their forces returned. How well it worked would depend on when it happened and where they were when they were asked to stop.

Now legally, it would be difficult to blame the German states for the insurgents. But if Napoleon wanted to punish them for what happened, it certainly works as a pretext. It would probably be best in fact, because it cuts right at the concern you mentioned about popular support for the insurgents. It gives Napoleon the excuse he needs to burn his way through Germany until he gets what he wants.

But if Napoleon does act against the Germans it means he's surrounded, or atleast his army with enemies is and Napoleon's general decline in skill in picking subordinates and leading might accelerate with such a traumatic loss to his person.

I'd wager Napoleon either rushes back himself or is somewhat destroyed on the Russian lines.

He'd likely suffer a crushing defeat in Russia, but nothing on the scale of the retreating march of Leipzig. He'd try to sue for peace or atleast a temporary armistice and fighting would likely resume in the "Fulda gap" region of Germany with Prussia joining the Russian army in the attack and the Habsburgs also joining in once more with the British throwing themselves back into the Peninsular War with more resources.

Depending on when this takes place and how the British respond may affect the War of 1812 if the Americans think the British will be able to focus on North America with Napoleon no longer distracting them as much.