Wi Asquith Assassinated in 1909?

[pipisme]

Here is the final paragraph of Bonar Law's account of his meeting with Asquith on 14 October 1913, as published in The Unknown Prime Minister:

...Then Mr. Asquith said: 'We have had a very interesting conversation, and I shall write you again later;' to which I replied. 'Yes, we have had a very interesting conversation, but I do not see the result of it is any change in the position. ' He said, 'Yes there is, for I clearly understand what your position is;' to which I replied, 'Well, to avoid misunderstanding, I would like to know what your understanding is.' 'Your position', he said, 'is this: that subject to no general outcry that they are betrayed on the part of your supporters in the south and west, and assuming that what is meant by Ulster is satisfactorily arranged, if we left out Ulster then you would not feel bound to prevent Home Rule being given to the rest of Ireland.' I replied that was not quite the position, as I had made it clear that the first thing we should have to do would be to make sure that we had the support of the colleagues whose adhesion to any scheme would be essential, as in my opinion it would be quite impossible to go on with any proposal if we found that any of the prominent leaders of our Party would be disposed to fight against it. He accepted this, and then repeated his declaration of our position, as far as I can remember, in these words: 'Subject to the agreement of your colleagues whose concurrence is essential to you, if there were not a general outcry against you in the south and west of Ireland, if Ulster (which we can at present call X) were left out of the Bill, then you would not feel bound to prevent the granting of Home Rule to the rest of Ireland.' I accepted that statement as correct, and that is where the interview ended.

 

[RogueBeaver]

Any idea what Carson's response would be?

 

[pipisme]

Any idea what Carson's response would be?

Carson accepted that Ulster could not prevent Home Rule for the rest of Ireland, but was determined that the North would be excluded from Home Rule.

Bonar Law, who has often been painted as an extemist on the Home Rule issue, was in reality a good deal more moderate than many of his colleagues. He and Carson were both ready to consider a compromise settlement. Neither was prepared to use Ulster in order to sabotage Home Rule for the rest of Ireland.

Quotation taken from the book The Unknown Prime Minister.

Grey would be reluctant to become Prime Minister after the assassination of Asquith. He did not have the ambition of Lloyd George. Here is a plausible scenario.

The force feeding of suffragettes began on Sunday 26 September 1909, according to wikipedia's chronology of that year for the UK. Let's say that two suffragettes shoot Asquith dead on 29 September. I would think that the new Prime Minister would not be appointed until after Asquith's funeral. [Spencer Perceval, the only previous Prime Minister to be assassinated, was shot dead on 11 May 1812 and had a private funeral on 16 May.] Say Asquith's funeral, either public or private, is on 4 October. There is no obvious successor to him as leader of the Liberal Party and Prime Minister. Some time between Asquith's death and his funeral Grey and Lloyd George dine together. They agree that LG would give his full support to Grey to become Prime Minister, but after five years Grey would resign for LG to become leader of the Liberal Party, and Prime Minister if the Liberals are then in power. Grey would retire to devote his time to birdwatching and angling. Of course there was no written record of this agreement. If the Great War happens as in OTL that would make things very interesting at the end of September/beginning of October 1914 if Grey is Prime Minister then.

 

[Peelitebkearns]

I think your Outline is very Plausible-and like you say, if Gray is set to resign in October 1914, that could be interesting for the war effort in particular.

In this scenario, I can see 1 of 2 things happenning. Either Gray brings forward his resignation as PM, so Lloyd-George is at the helm from the get go, perhaps in return for Gray being named Foreign Secretary in a LG cabinet. It's interesting though that Lloyd-George was reluctant to support the war at first.

Another scenario is that Gray decides the deal is off and carries on as PM (because he believes he is best placed to head the government in wartime)-in which case, Lloyd-George is going to kick up a fuss at the earliest oppertune moment and do something simelar to what he did in 1916 IOTL.

If scenario 1 occurs, then the liberals stay together-though scenario 2 may split them as in OTL, depending on how much loyalty within the Liberals Gray commands.

 

[Simreeve]

Some time between Asquith's death and his funeral Grey and Lloyd George dine together. They agree that LG would give his full support to Grey to become Prime Minister, but after five years Grey would resign for LG to become leader of the Liberal Party, and Prime Minister if the Liberals are then in power. Grey would retire to devote his time to birdwatching and angling. Of course there was no written record of this agreement.

Was the site of that dining by any chance at a restaurant in Islington that was called (or at least on the same site as the later establishment called) 'Granita'?

 

[pipisme]

Was the site of that dining by any chance at a restaurant in Islington that was called (or at least on the same site as the later establishment called) 'Granita'?

No it wasn't. It was more upmarket and in central London or the West End.

I can't see Margot Asquith being prepared to retire into secluded widowhood. Also Violet Asquith [who became Violet Bonham Carter in OTL] was 22 years old. In OTL she married Sir Maurice Bonham Carter, her father's Principal Private Secretary, in 1915. Presumably that would not happen in this scenario, and therefore Helena Bonham Carter is butterflied away.

There was a by-election for the Bermondsey constituency on 28 October caused by the death of the sitting Liberal MP. In OTL it was a Conservative gain.

I'm thinking of doing a TL with this POD.

 

[Peelitebkearns]

No it wasn't. It was more upmarket and in central London or the West End.

I can't see Margot Asquith being prepared to retire into secluded widowhood. Also Violet Asquith [who became Violet Bonham Carter in OTL] was 22 years old. In OTL she married Sir Maurice Bonham Carter, her father's Principal Private Secretary, in 1915. Presumably that would not happen in this scenario, and therefore Helena Bonham Carter is butterflied away.

There was a by-election for the Bermondsey constituency on 28 October caused by the death of the sitting Liberal MP. In OTL it was a Conservative gain.

I'm thinking of doing a TL with this POD.

Yeah I realised Helena Bonham Carter probably doesn't exist in this TL, come to think of it hardly anyone alive today would defeat the butterflies.

I was thinking of doing a TL on this Pod as well, though I've enjoyed your previous TL's, so I'd be happy to read what you think would happen in this scenario.

 

[pipisme]

Yeah I realised Helena Bonham Carter probably doesn't exist in this TL, come to think of it hardly anyone alive today would defeat the butterflies.

I was thinking of doing a TL on this Pod as well, though I've enjoyed your previous TL's, so I'd be happy to read what you think would happen in this scenario.

Though a granddaughter of Violet Asquith who is a film actress in the present day is plausible.

I will not start the TL until next month when books with a 300 classification number in my local university library are returned to the shelves.

Here is a TL I abandoned on its fifth page for which the POD is Sir Edward Grey becoming Prime Minister instead of Asquith in April 1908: https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=138044.

 

[pipisme]

Just to say that I will not be starting the TL until September, when my local university library returns to its 24/7 opening hours after its restricted vacation opening hours.