WI: Asian Pirates discover Americas

katchen

Banned
It WOULD take an Emperor interested in ordering his Shogun to go beyond the Tsugaru Strait to conquer Hokkaido, Shikotan, Kunashiri and Urup. THAT would be the POD. But it would not be much of a POD. Because during the Medieval Warm Period, those islands had a climate in which rice could be grown, as they do now.

The Kuril Island north of Urup are quite small until one gets to Paramushir and then the southern tip of Kamchatka, then inhabited by the Itelman. Off of Kamchatka are the Komandardki Idlands and then Attu and Kiska, the beginning of the Aleutians.

The Itelman are not friendly; the Aleut, reasonably friendly if James A. Michener is to be believed. No, Japanese fishermen would not want to broadcast the secret of their rich new fishing ground where the daimyo's tax man might hear of it. But for just that reason, some Japanese fisher folk might be inclined to stay permanently on islands where the locals are reasonably friendly, put down roots and intermarry, trading with their cousins who would go back home. Their cousins would worry about the tax. And Japanese culture would spread north and east to people who used to make things exclusively of stone, leather and bone.

Especially when the trade route finally reaches the mainland and truly valuable commodities such as walrus, narwahl and fossil mammoth tusks, sea otter pelts and deer antlers for Chinese medicine hit the market.
 

Flubber

Banned
And the derping continues...

It WOULD take an Emperor interested in ordering his Shogun...

You aren't aware of just who ordered who around in the Emperor-Shogun relationship, are you?

The Kuril Island north of Urup are quite small until one gets to Paramushir and then the southern tip of Kamchatka, then inhabited by the Itelman. Off of Kamchatka are the Komandardki Idlands and then Attu and Kiska, the beginning of the Aleutians.

And the Japanese are going to play this game of island hopscotch across thousands of miles of some of the worst ocean weather on the planet for what exactly?

No, Japanese fishermen would not want to broadcast the secret of their rich new fishing ground...

No Japanese fishermen are going to go looking for rich new fishing grounds until the stocks in the rich fishing grounds at home collapse.

In Europe, religion-mandated dietary requirements and overfishing led the Basque and others to the Grand Banks. I fail to see how a Shinto-inspired emphasis on sushi is going to lead the Japanese to the Aleutians.

... when the trade route finally reaches the mainland and truly valuable commodities such as walrus, narwahl and fossil mammoth tusks, sea otter pelts and deer antlers for Chinese medicine hit the market.

All of which are already available in more than sufficient quantities on Asia's side of the Pacific. As so often needs to be repeated in the many tedious threads on this topic, the North American fur trade only took off after European fur stocks collapsed.

Others have already mentioned this but it bears repeating in the hopes that it may finally sink in:

Europe's initial voyages of exploration were attempts to reach known locations which produced known goods for which there were known markets. The Portuguese and Spaniards weren't herping and derping off over the horizon and/or south of the equator in the hopes they might find anything. They knew the goods existed, they knew approximately where they were produced, and they knew how much money they could make. They were attempting to discover new routes to those previously known locations when they hit the jackpot in the form of the New World.

It was only after the Iberians won the lottery that other nations began exploring for exploration's sake and then only because they wanted to win the lottery too.
 
And they will find them closer to home, and not waste money searching for the possibility they might find them thousands of miles away.
I meant if they had already discovered new lands (not personally, but somebody had stumbled across them).

If there were no known islands there, nobody would be intentionally heading there. Once somebody washes up there and makes it back, though, there will be a trickle and then a wave of settlers.

That's the problem. There's no reason to spend the money and time to sail west (or east) in pursuit of new sources that may not even exist when existing sources are available. And if they're in someone else's hands, the response is to change that - not to say "Head out as far as you can before your crew all dies of scurvy." to your crew.
True, usually. That doesn't contradict my argument. I was talking about after the Aleuts get discovered.

Though there were plenty of cases where crews would just sail out hoping to find something. Most Pacific and Atlantic islands were discovered that way. (and I guess, most Mediterranean islands too, but that was so far in the past that it doesn't apply to 11th century Japan).

Sure, if they discovered that there were resources worth extracting further away, they might say "Ha! Monopoly!" - but they won't sail across the Pacific in pursuit of possibly bupkiss without a pressing reason, and "um, curiosity?" isn't a terribly compelling reason in this context.
Exactly. I meant after they discover the new lands.

And I was just talking about the Aleuts and that general area, which is only one Mediterranean away from Japan. Not across the entire Pacific.

And the idea that they didn't know that increased supply means lower prices - I dunno about "the vast majority of people" in society in general, but those who make a living by buying low and selling dear will at least have some grasp of it, because otherwise they go out of business.
Merchants would know to buy up goods in areas where prices are low and sell them where prices are high, but whether they would know about the laws of supply and demand is uncertain. The general population certainly wouldn't know.

Sailors, pirates, traders, etc. back then would probably just know that you can get rich by selling valuable goods. They probably didn't know that by selling a lot of these expensive goods they wouldn't be valuable anymore.

The Arab world had the most advanced economies at this time, and they had just barely discovered supply and demand.

Also, supply-side economics survives to this day. So you never know :p.

People seem to have this idea that people are panting for excuses to sail long distances with low chances of profit over a perfectly profitable existing system.
Well that was true but not in Japan. I was talking about after they already had discovered a new land/sea to exploit.

There were plenty of cases of sailing long distances with low chances of profit, such as most voyages for gold and spices that did not go along the coasts or trade routes of the Old World, or most voyages that stumbled upon islands.
 
No Japanese fishermen are going to go looking for rich new fishing grounds until the stocks in the rich fishing grounds at home collapse.
If that was true then the Basque fishermen would have gone to Iceland and stopped there, having found a good fishing ground.

Not every Japanese fisherman has control of all fishing grounds surrounding Japan. They're individuals, so some or even most don't have the ideal spots, and will have to look outward. Even more so if there were fishing guilds, leagues, or companies (which means fishermen wouldn't be able to fish where others already were).

Gradually they work their way north, or stumble upon the Aleuts accidentally. I agree that a big commissioned voyage is unlikely, but to say no one will ever get there is disingenuous because otherwise none of the open ocean islands that we know of would have gotten discovered.

All of which are already available in more than sufficient quantities on Asia's side of the Pacific. As so often needs to be repeated in the many tedious threads on this topic, the North American fur trade only took off after European fur stocks collapsed.
It only took off after European fur stocks collapsed, but it started before that. The thread only requires that Asian sailors/pirates/traders discover the Americas, not that they create an empire there.

Europe's initial voyages of exploration were attempts to reach known locations which produced known goods for which there were known markets. The Portuguese and Spaniards weren't herping and derping off over the horizon and/or south of the equator in the hopes they might find anything. They knew the goods existed, they knew approximately where they were produced, and they knew how much money they could make. They were attempting to discover new routes to those previously known locations when they hit the jackpot in the form of the New World.
True mostly. The Portuguese and Spanish did 'herp and derp' off into the horizon occasionally, as did many other peoples, but for the Portuguese and Spanish that was not the case most of the time.

A voyage to the unknown commissioned by the Shogun is highly unlikely but if someone discovers the islands to the north and northeast with plenty of resources, it's inevitable that people will go to exploit the resources.
 
I meant if they had already discovered new lands (not personally, but somebody had stumbled across them).

If there were no known islands there, nobody would be intentionally heading there. Once somebody washes up there and makes it back, though, there will be a trickle and then a wave of settlers.

No. Someone will say "And why should we sail all this way for stuff we can find closer to home?", find no answer, and it will be essentially forgotten about.

True, usually. That doesn't contradict my argument. I was talking about after the Aleuts get discovered.
The Aleuts won't be discovered by accident, at least not in a context that allows for "getting back".

Though there were plenty of cases where crews would just sail out hoping to find something. Most Pacific and Atlantic islands were discovered that way. (and I guess, most Mediterranean islands too, but that was so far in the past that it doesn't apply to 11th century Japan).
Name one. Any one. Please.

Exactly. I meant after they discover the new lands.

And I was just talking about the Aleuts and that general area, which is only one Mediterranean away from Japan. Not across the entire Pacific.
Which is still a very long distance to travel without any incentive. People don't travel thousands of miles to make less money (given the costs of such voyages) than they would by sticking to things closer to hope, they only make such voyages in response to conditions justifying it.

Merchants would know to buy up goods in areas where prices are low and sell them where prices are high, but whether they would know about the laws of supply and demand is uncertain. The general population certainly wouldn't know.
They would have to know about the laws of supply and demand to be able to know about prices being low vs. not.


Sailors, pirates, traders, etc. back then would probably just know that you can get rich by selling valuable goods. They probably didn't know that by selling a lot of these expensive goods they wouldn't be valuable anymore.
They probably did, because they're not morons who have no idea that having a lot of X available makes it easy for would be buyers where as having only a little means would be sellers can name their price, because there isn't an alternative.

This is something that you could discover with the equivalent of a lemonade stand, it doesn't take elaborate theories.

The Arab world had the most advanced economies at this time, and they had just barely discovered supply and demand.
And the basis for that is?

Well that was true but not in Japan. I was talking about after they already had discovered a new land/sea to exploit.

There were plenty of cases of sailing long distances with low chances of profit, such as most voyages for gold and spices that did not go along the coasts or trade routes of the Old World, or most voyages that stumbled upon islands.
Plenty of cases, so many that actually naming one would cause your fingers to catch on fire and your teeth to fall out.

Most voyages for gold and spices do not even remotely compare to this pointless excuse in folly you're proposing the Asian sailors engage in.
 

katchen

Banned
Fish is not an excuse to travel to new and hazardous lands. Fur and especially ivory, however, IS TREASURE, justifying long voyages. Especially since as we know now, the demand for both furs and ivory can quickly exceed the ability of sea otter, beaver, mink, ermine, fox, walrus and narwahl populations to replenish themselves, forcing traders to keep looking further and further afield for new trading and trapping grounds.
Japanese, Chinese and Koreans will always want ivory to be carved into signet "chops" and artistic carvings and at least in the North always want and need furs to keep them warm in the winter--and be willing to pay well for them. All it takes is one trader coming back with fur and ivory to send many more potential traders North and East (and then once the Yukon River is discovered, upriver) to find more and more of both.
And as we all know from the innuit experience on the other coast, once Innuit got their hands on goods like steel knives and fishhooks, they were very good at carrying them a long ways themselves on their own trade routes and sending furs and tusks back in return from deep into the Arctic. And there is some evidence that the climate during the late Medieval Warm period in Kamchatka was warmer--perhaps enoughfor agriculture. See( pages-142.unibe.ch/products/abstracts/solomina.pdf pages- 142.unibe.ch/products/abstracts/solomina.pdf ) URL for a study of all Russia 's climate during this period --interesting and useful for a variety of TLs
 
Hmm. Ok if you are so stingy about Asians discovering North America why not influence the region after it was discovered by the Spanish and Russians (like those lazy bastards England, France, Netherlands, Portugal, etc after Spain found Ameruca).What if We had a Non-Isolationist Japan in the 16th-18th Century? Wouldn't the Pacific Northwest draw the Japanese and Chinese there for the same reason it did the Russians, Spanish, English, and Americans? If not initially through Japanese means as the Pacific Northwest Trade picks up a Non-Isolationist Japan would be less stingy about seeing its merchants deal up with their Euro counterparts in the region. European companies may Even turn to Japan for manpower rather then getting it from the otherside of North America and the Pacific.
 
Fish is not an excuse to travel to new and hazardous lands. Fur and especially ivory, however, IS TREASURE, justifying long voyages.

After, and only after, nearby sources are diminished enough to make up for the fact long voyages are more expensive and thus less profitable.
 
Not really relevant to the issue of merchants not wanting to invest in long voyages over short ones for the same items.

Ah, but this is talking about portable goods. Land is a investment. I can imagine in OTL certain businessmen made a deal of money selling land overseas to so and so's.
 
Ah, but this is talking about portable goods. Land is a investment. I can imagine in OTL certain businessmen made a deal of money selling land overseas to so and so's.

Now if only there was some way that they actually had any control over that island, which they don't.

Anywhere that's worth settling, and ignoring the natives, those who want to sail away from persecution can just claim and tell those back in Asia to suck it.
 

katchen

Banned
It costs a lot less to get ivory from Innuit than it does from Chinese merchants who will want gold for that ivory--but who wil be willing to pay gold or silver to get ivory in Japan for resale back in China. For fur, the Japanese are in competition with the Mongols-Russians.
BTW, sellin gboth these commodities to Cchina via Okhotsk and Khyakha was what kept the Russian -American Company in business for about 50 years OTTL.
 
It costs a lot less to get ivory from Innuit than it does from Chinese merchants who will want gold for that ivory--but who wil be willing to pay gold or silver to get ivory in Japan for resale back in China. For fur, the Japanese are in competition with the Mongols-Russians.
BTW, sellin gboth these commodities to Cchina via Okhotsk and Khyakha was what kept the Russian -American Company in business for about 50 years OTTL.

How much are you allowing for the costs of the voyage to the Inuit and back?

And that it happened OTL - is that before or after local stocks were depleted, is the question.
 
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