WI Arthur, Prince of Wales, lived?

[Jett-Power]

In 1501, Arthur, the next in line for the English throne, married Catherine of Aragon to secure an alliance between England and Spain. Then, in 1502, Arthur died. The rest is history. Arthur's brother, Henry VIII, becomes the heir to the throne and marries his brother's widow, divorcing her for not giving him a male heir, and then goes on to marry five other women. Shenanigans ensue.
But what would happen if Arthur didn't die?
For starters, England would have a real-life King Arthur, the Anglo-Spanish alliance would remain strong for the time being, and England never split from the Pope unless Arthur and Catherine also have issues having a son.
I don't see how much history would change in this timeline, but what does everyone else think?

 

[Happiness]

Catherine may be able to have more surviving children. She would probably be happier with Arthur and they could have a marriage like Henry VII and Elizabeth of York (without lovers)

 

[ordinarylittleme]

unless Arthur and Catherine also have issues having a son

What would be Arthur's reason for divorcing her? He can't exactly quote Leviticus, and dispensations would've taken care of consanguinity (like it did with Henry but anyway)

 

[Tudorfan]

In 1501, Arthur, the next in line for the English throne, married Catherine of Aragon to secure an alliance between England and Spain. Then, in 1502, Arthur died. The rest is history. Arthur's brother, Henry VIII, becomes the heir to the throne and marries his brother's widow, divorcing her for not giving him a male heir, and then goes on to marry five other women. Shenanigans ensue.
But what would happen if Arthur didn't die?
For starters, England would have a real-life King Arthur, the Anglo-Spanish alliance would remain strong for the time being, and England never split from the Pope unless Arthur and Catherine also have issues having a son.
I don't see how much history would change in this timeline, but what does everyone else think?

Even if they have issues having a son, Arthur cannot divorce Catherine - he's her legal husband, they've had kids, and Arthur has a male heir - Henry - so Catherine's pretty much secure in herself.

And history would change a lot - Henry VII might live longer. With Arthur alive, there's no need for EOY to have another child, so she'd survive past 1503 meaning the shock of her death wouldn't finish Henry VII off so soon.
Arthur's also a good Catholic, so the reformation is unlikely to occur in England either...

 

[eliamartin65]

This begs another question, though: Who would Henry marry if Arthur lived? Marguerite of Angoulême? His other fiancée, Eleanor of Austria? Or maybe even Madeleine de La Tour?

 

[isabella]

This begs another question, though: Who would Henry marry if Arthur lived? Marguerite of Angoulême? His other fiancée, Eleanor of Austria? Or maybe even Madeleine de La Tour?

Eleanor would NEVER EVER be offered for a simple Duke of York. She was engaged to Henry when he was Prince of Wales…
Marguerite d’Angouleme or Madeleine de la Tour are both possible matches

 

[Tudorfan]

This begs another question, though: Who would Henry marry if Arthur lived? Marguerite of Angoulême? His other fiancée, Eleanor of Austria? Or maybe even Madeleine de La Tour?

It depends on when the marriage occurs. If Henry VII is dead there's no way in all that's sane and holy that Catherine would allow a French woman to marry into the family - not when the French are enemies of her family.

 

[eliamartin65]

It depends on when the marriage occurs. If Henry VII is dead there's no way in all that's sane and holy that Catherine would allow a French woman to marry into the family - not when the French are enemies of her family.

Well, I can see the marriage occouring in 1505/06 (Marguerite was offered for Henry IOTL around that timeframe), meaning Henry VII might still be alive....

 

[Tudorfan]

Well, I can see the marriage occouring in 1505/06 (Marguerite was offered for Henry IOTL around that timeframe), meaning Henry VII might still be alive....

Oh, he would be at that time, especially if Arthur's still alive.

 

[isabella]

It depends on when the marriage occurs. If Henry VII is dead there's no way in all that's sane and holy that Catherine would allow a French woman to marry into the family - not when the French are enemies of her family.

Henry would be most likely already engaged, if not married, at the time of his father’s death, specially if Henry VII died some years later than OTL. And Arthur would be King, while Catherine would be simply a Queen Consort meaning who she would not be in charge of anything (unless Arthur is an idiot who let his wife ordering him around)

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Ok, let’s say Prince Henry marries Marguerite d’Angouleme before while both his father and brother are alive (or is at least engaged to, in which case he marries her shortly thereafter).

Can we also safely say that Margaret still marries James in summer of 1503 (especially since the relevant Treaty of Friendship predates the PoD by a few months)? If so, we have the three of the four surviving Tudor children being married, respectively, to a daughter of the Spanish monarchs, the King of Scotland, and the sister of the future King of France. If all of her siblings are married as such by then, can we also still assume Mary is still betrothed to Charles circa 1507 (regardless of whether it falls through as OTL)?

To throw a further wrench into this situation - what if Prince Arthur still dies with no offspring? Say lives longer than OTL, but either still predeceases his father or dies shortly into his reign?

 

[BoleynBuff]

To throw a further wrench into this situation - what if Prince Arthur still dies with no offspring? Say lives longer than OTL, but either still predeceases his father or dies shortly into his reign?

Then Henry will still become king, with Marguerite as his queen. Catherine of Aragon might remarry to the Duke of Savoy.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Then Henry will still become king, with Marguerite as his queen. Catherine of Aragon might remarry to the Duke of Savoy.

Does Henry allow Mary’s marriage to Charles to go through, or is he now too pro-French to allow for such a thing?

 

[DrakeRlugia]

Wasn't Henry VIII being groomed for a possible clerical career before the death of his brother? Obviously that would be sort of risky given that Henry is Henry VII's only other living son, but if Catherine proves fecund and they start having children, Henry VII might see that as a prudent career choice for his second son, especially as a way to ensure that as Duke of York he doesn't build up his own power base and create a secondary House of York through his own marriage. It'd also be a smart way for Henry VII to gain control over certain clerical revenues, since he'd likely be able to get the Duke of York installed into a plump bishopric when he's still underage.

 

[Dragonboy]

Wasn't Henry VIII being groomed for a possible clerical career before the death of his brother? Obviously that would be sort of risky given that Henry is Henry VII's only other living son, but if Catherine proves fecund and they start having children, Henry VII might see that as a prudent career choice for his second son, especially as a way to ensure that as Duke of York he doesn't build up his own power base and create a secondary House of York through his own marriage. It'd also be a smart way for Henry VII to gain control over certain clerical revenues, since he'd likely be able to get the Duke of York installed into a plump bishopric when he's still underage.

Ultimate irony: Henry ascends to the papacy eventutally.

 

[Stahlo]

Wasn't Henry VIII being groomed for a possible clerical career before the death of his brother? Obviously that would be sort of risky given that Henry is Henry VII's only other living son, but if Catherine proves fecund and they start having children, Henry VII might see that as a prudent career choice for his second son, especially as a way to ensure that as Duke of York he doesn't build up his own power base and create a secondary House of York through his own marriage. It'd also be a smart way for Henry VII to gain control over certain clerical revenues, since he'd likely be able to get the Duke of York installed into a plump bishopric when he's still underage.

That's been thrown around a lot, but I don't know that there's any actual evidence that Henry VII was considering this. Given how new his dynasty was, I don't think he would have ever considered this, even if Arthur lived and had lots of babies with Catherine. There would be no guarantee that those babies would live to adulthood, let alone have their own babies. Given Henry VII and EOY's own luck with kids, it's better to have Henry marry and set up a cadet branch. If he turns out to have a lot of sons, he or Arthur could bully the younger ones into the church if they felt the need.

 

[BlueFlowwer]

Wasn't Henry VIII being groomed for a possible clerical career before the death of his brother?

Highly unlikely. Given that the Tudors are a fledgling dynasty, they will need a cadet branch or two to keep them alive. And I can't remember any riyal prince who entered the church in England in the past centuries before the Tudors.

 

[BoleynBuff]

Does Henry allow Mary’s marriage to Charles to go through, or is he now too pro-French to allow for such a thing?

Well, the marriage didn’t go through IOTL because Charles delayed it indefinitely (through the influence of his Aragonese grandfather).

 

[DrakeRlugia]

Highly unlikely. Given that the Tudors are a fledgling dynasty, they will need a cadet branch or two to keep them alive. And I can't remember any riyal prince who entered the church in England in the past centuries before the Tudors.

This is true, but I don't think most kings or monarchs thought about creating cadet branches for that reason. Having an heir and a spare is one thing, but I could see Henry VII being wary of creating a secondary branch of the Tudors because of the troubles that had stemmed in England previously because of the warring factions. It doesn't seem like Henry VII gave much thought to Henry VIII and his future until after he became heir, and even then he kept him out of sight and didn't train him in the practicalities of kingship.

That's been thrown around a lot, but I don't know that there's any actual evidence that Henry VII was considering this. Given how new his dynasty was, I don't think he would have ever considered this, even if Arthur lived and had lots of babies with Catherine. There would be no guarantee that those babies would live to adulthood, let alone have their own babies. Given Henry VII and EOY's own luck with kids, it's better to have Henry marry and set up a cadet branch. If he turns out to have a lot of sons, he or Arthur could bully the younger ones into the church if they felt the need.

Yeah, I'm not sure if it was a concrete plan. But certainly Henry VIII's own education was much different than Arthur's and had a high focus on theology. There's absolutely no guarantee that their children will live or that they have issue, but most monarchs weren't thinking that far ahead. It's one thing if the children are dying quite young or a few days / months after birth, but if they have issue that start to grow into teenagers and young adults, then that immediately reduces Henry VIII's stock. I think one also has to consider Henry VII's parsimony. The Tudor monarchy was strong because the royal estates were able to pass largely intact from one heir to another, without being fractured because of multiple male heirs. I could see Henry VII being reluctant to give Henry VIII as Duke of York a suitable state, especially if Catherine is popping out tons of kids (multiple daughters will mean eventual dowries, sons means landed settlements of their own). I presume that even if Henry VII still croaks in 1509, Catherine might possibly could have 3-4 kids by then, if not more, depending on how good of a match she and Arthur are in that respect.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Well, the marriage didn’t go through IOTL because Charles delayed it indefinitely (through the influence of his Aragonese grandfather).

Would Ferdinand be as opposed to the match if the new king is married to a French princess (instead of his sister)? After all, if Catherine has no pull in England now, marrying the last remaining Tudor would be the only way for his family to keep any kind of pull at all in England.