WI: Arthur of Brittany escapes imprisonment

Hello, Historico here, back after years of casual lurking and once again being bit by the timeline bug. I've been on a huge Plantagenet bender as of late, and have been considering writing about one of history's greatest potential "King Arthurs", the Duke of Brittany. Now a lot of the Threads I've found about this topic usually sees Arthur either beat John in the field before the Treaty of Le Goulet or soon after. But I am wondering is there anyway that Arthur could have regained his position if he had been smuggled out of Château de Falaise in Falaise, Normandy once he had been captured? Since he was about 16 when he died, giving him a few years to consolidate support in Brittany might make the Barons choose him over Louis in 1215? Is he even likely to live that long without Phillip's backing? Might the Magna Carter even get butterflied away, if the English now they have legitimate alternative in Arthur? Is there some other issues I'm not even thinking about lol? Can't wait to hear your thoughts!
 
Depending on how harshly he's been treated whilst imprisoned Arthur could come out a bit bitter and twisted or otherwise traumatised.
 
Well, Arthur was passed over in 1199 primarily because he was only 12. Sine in 1216 John's son was only 9, it would have been logical to do it the other way.
 
So why would it be critical for Arthurs sister to be married off before his capture? I know she remained prisoner of John's even after his death, but what could she have brought to his ticket?
 
Well, Arthur was passed over in 1199 primarily because he was only 12. Sine in 1216 John's son was only 9, it would have been logical to do it the other way.

What does John Lackland do if a childless (heir-wise) Richard dies 6-7 years later (say in 1206). Arthur is of age and may have been groomed by Richard? Do we have another Empress Matilda/Stephen civil war situation?
 
What does John Lackland do if a childless (heir-wise) Richard dies 6-7 years later (say in 1206). Arthur is of age and may have been groomed by Richard? Do we have another Empress Matilda/Stephen civil war situation?

If he doesn't die so unexpectedly it's possible Richard has more firmly indicated who his heir is (or even fathered a legitimate son of his own).
 
Interesting, I was trying to maintain John on the throne long enough for us to at least get to the Magna Carta. But an earlier POD, may be appropriate given Richard's deathbed desire to see the crown pass to John instead of Arthur.
 
Perhaps an earlier POD might be John being defeated and/or killed at the Battle of Mirebeau in 1202? If John died, I'm pretty certain Arthur would automatically become King of England. It's far enough into John's reign for Arthur to paint himself in a positive light, but not so far that Philip Augustus might consider pushing the Angevins out of the mainland altogether.
 
Yeah I'm leaning on that being my POD being an abruptly different Battle of Mirebeau. Had Eleanor and John died, Phillip Augustus would have an enormous amount of influence over the young King Arthur.
 
So why would it be critical for Arthurs sister to be married off before his capture? I know she remained prisoner of John's even after his death, but what could she have brought to his ticket?
He can have a refuge at her husband's realm while he is gaining more and more allies.
 
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