Will Kürlich Kerl
Banned
What happens if Chester A. Arthur was chosen as the Republican presidential nominee in 1884 instead of James G. Blaine?
What happens if Chester A. Arthur was chosen as the Republican presidential nominee in 1884 instead of James G. Blaine?
Logan was picked for VP not only to balance the ticket east and west, but to balance it between the two factions of the party (Stalwart and Half-breed). If Arthur, a Stalwart, was nominated, the second spot on the ticket would likely have gone to a westerner of the other faction. Maybe William Windom of Minnesota?
Logan was picked because Robert Todd Lincoln ruled himself out. As I noted at https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/FDZx-gNlgHU/vwrwl1qYRacJ Lincoln would not have ruled himself out had Arthur been nominated. By 1884, Arthur was no longer as closely associated with the Stalwarts as he had been (they disliked his support of civil service reform) so the fact that Lincoln had been a Stalwart would not necessarily him, and above all there was his name...
Why are we assuming Arthur would win?
Because Blaine probably only lost IOTL because of a campaign gaffe? I can't see Cleveland beating Arthur in New York
Cleveland was the governor of New York; Arthur made his career as the lackey of that state's disgraced, deceased former senator.
And Arthur, like Truman, made his presidency out of repudiating his political origins and embracing civil service reform. That undecuts the major plank of Cleveland's OTL campaign - that Blaine was too personally mired in corruption to be trusted on reform. By 1884, Arthur had a pretty solid record to run on that score as president.
The mugwump factor is negated if Arthur runs; Arthur was a New Yorker himself; He's a stronger candidate than Blaine; 'rum, romanism, and rebellion' is butterflied.
Cleveland won IOTL only by about a thousand votes in New York, and that was against Blaine. No way in hell does he sustain or further that if he's facing Arthur. Arthur would be re-elected.
The allegations of corruption against Blaine were exaggerated, and Arthur was LITERALLY on Conkling's payroll before the latter's fall. Garfield was stuck with Arthur but chose Blaine.
But Arthur has ~3 years of a popular Presidency and a record of Civil Service Reform. Blaine didn't and was more susceptible to attack.