WI: Arthur in 1884 instead of Blaine

He probably wins, and dies in a few months from Bright's Disease. He was so sick that he could barely work in 1885, so if he does win the next Vice-President is going to replace him the same way he came in. The reason he didn't actively campaign for the nomination was due to how tired and near dead he was. Considering Arthur was a New Yorker, his VP would probably be a westerner. Might even be Blaine's VP John A. Logan


If his wife Nell survived, and you butterfly away the Bright's Disease, (a thread I was planning to make) then things become more interesting for Arthur and America.
 
If Arthur is renominated, it's probably with the support of George Edmunds, and both motivated by a desire to stymie Blaine for the good of the party. Consequently, Blaine is out of contention for VP. The spot goes to Edmunds, or more likely to a solid westerner like John Sherman. Arthur defeats Cleveland in New York (and probably Connecticut), without which Cleveland can't prevail. Arthur dies within two years, and is succeeded by Edmunds/Sherman. If Sherman, then Joseph Foraker becomes a Supreme Court justice and Ohio politics gets compound butterflies.
 
What happens if Chester A. Arthur was chosen as the Republican presidential nominee in 1884 instead of James G. Blaine?

interestingly, the *one* GOP candidate whose running mate Robert Todd Lincoln was willing to be was Arthur--out of personal loyalty. (Lincoln was the only member of Garfield's cabinet Arthur retained.) So if the Arthur-Lincoln ticket wins, which is plausible, the US will soon get its second President Lincoln...

(See my post at https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/FDZx-gNlgHU/vwrwl1qYRacJ for details.)
 
Logan was picked for VP not only to balance the ticket east and west, but to balance it between the two factions of the party (Stalwart and Half-breed). If Arthur, a Stalwart, was nominated, the second spot on the ticket would likely have gone to a westerner of the other faction. Maybe William Windom of Minnesota?
 
Logan was picked for VP not only to balance the ticket east and west, but to balance it between the two factions of the party (Stalwart and Half-breed). If Arthur, a Stalwart, was nominated, the second spot on the ticket would likely have gone to a westerner of the other faction. Maybe William Windom of Minnesota?

Logan was picked because Robert Todd Lincoln ruled himself out. As I noted at https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/FDZx-gNlgHU/vwrwl1qYRacJ Lincoln would not have ruled himself out had Arthur been nominated. By 1884, Arthur was no longer as closely associated with the Stalwarts as he had been (they disliked his support of civil service reform) so the fact that Lincoln had been a Stalwart would not necessarily him, and above all there was his name...
 
Was Lincoln aware of Arthur's poor health? If he was, it throws his repeated unwillingness to seek nomination into a rather strange light, when set against his apparent willingness to run a high risk of being an accidental president.
 
Logan was picked because Robert Todd Lincoln ruled himself out. As I noted at https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/FDZx-gNlgHU/vwrwl1qYRacJ Lincoln would not have ruled himself out had Arthur been nominated. By 1884, Arthur was no longer as closely associated with the Stalwarts as he had been (they disliked his support of civil service reform) so the fact that Lincoln had been a Stalwart would not necessarily him, and above all there was his name...

Indeed, Lincoln might be seen as a balance between the 2; sure, Fremont was their first official candidate, but they could see LIncoln as harkening back to his dad and a time before the split.

There's another reason Arthur might choose him, too - if everyone figure Arthur might die, they'd really be selecting the next President. Might they want to go with Lincoln out of a desire to turn back the clock to a time before the split whent he GOP was dominant, instead of the close elections of the 1880s? Not that he would mean that, but they might think that.

Or, was Robert Lincoln enough of his own person that they didn't just naturally think he equaled his dad? I really don't know much about him.
 
Why are we assuming Arthur would win? The real butterflies would come later with Blaine having never yet been nominated for the presidency despite having contended for such. We may well see Cleveland versus Blaine here in 1888 with the former as the incumbent, per OTL.
 
Why are we assuming Arthur would win?

Because Blaine probably only lost IOTL because of a campaign gaffe? I can't see Cleveland beating Arthur in New York. Then there's the mugwump factor

I don't really see how Cleveland can beat Arthur
 
Because Blaine probably only lost IOTL because of a campaign gaffe? I can't see Cleveland beating Arthur in New York

Cleveland was the governor of New York; Arthur made his career as the lackey of that state's disgraced, deceased former senator.
 
Cleveland was the governor of New York; Arthur made his career as the lackey of that state's disgraced, deceased former senator.

And Arthur, like Truman, made his presidency out of repudiating his political origins and embracing civil service reform. That undecuts the major plank of Cleveland's OTL campaign - that Blaine was too personally mired in corruption to be trusted on reform. By 1884, Arthur had a pretty solid record to run on that score as president.

The mugwump factor is negated if Arthur runs; Arthur was a New Yorker himself; He's a stronger candidate than Blaine; 'rum, romanism, and rebellion' is butterflied.

Cleveland won IOTL only by about a thousand votes in New York, and that was against Blaine. No way in hell does he sustain or further that if he's facing Arthur. Arthur would be elected.
 
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And Arthur, like Truman, made his presidency out of repudiating his political origins and embracing civil service reform. That undecuts the major plank of Cleveland's OTL campaign - that Blaine was too personally mired in corruption to be trusted on reform. By 1884, Arthur had a pretty solid record to run on that score as president.

The mugwump factor is negated if Arthur runs; Arthur was a New Yorker himself; He's a stronger candidate than Blaine; 'rum, romanism, and rebellion' is butterflied.

Cleveland won IOTL only by about a thousand votes in New York, and that was against Blaine. No way in hell does he sustain or further that if he's facing Arthur. Arthur would be re-elected.

The allegations of corruption against Blaine were exaggerated, and Arthur was LITERALLY on Conkling's payroll before the latter's fall. Garfield was stuck with Arthur but chose Blaine.
 
The allegations of corruption against Blaine were exaggerated, and Arthur was LITERALLY on Conkling's payroll before the latter's fall. Garfield was stuck with Arthur but chose Blaine.

But Arthur has ~3 years of a popular Presidency and a record of Civil Service Reform. Blaine didn't and was more susceptible to attack.
 
But Arthur has ~3 years of a popular Presidency and a record of Civil Service Reform. Blaine didn't and was more susceptible to attack.

So, are we then suggesting that whoever runs with Arthur gets a full term of his own as a result of the 1888 election, or do the Democrats finally manage to get back into the White House?
 
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