WI: Arsinoe IV as Well-Known or as Successful as Her Sister, Cleopatra

As it says on the tin. Cleopatra's certainly the most famous of Ptolemy XII of Egypt's five children. His two sons, Ptolemies XIII (possibly Arsinoe IV's twin brother) and XIV are remembered as little more than Cleopatra's successive husbands. His other two daughters are likewise reduced to the significance of historical footnotes: Berenice IV and Arsinoe IV. Berenice rose up in rebellion against Ptolemy XII and ended up losing her head.

Arsinoe, on the other hand, came within a hair's breadth of defeating Caesar, only for her soldiers to change sides at the last minute and arrange to hand her over to Caesar in exchange for Ptolemy XIII. Arsinoe was then included in Caesar's triumphal procession in Rome, where the sight of her even aroused pity from the Romans themselves. Unusually for a prominent prisoner in a triumph, she wasn't executed thereafter (probably not by Caesar's own choosing (or Cleopatra's)), since he was pressured to send her to Temple of Artemis at Ephesus.

Then, the Romans decided to get all stabbity-stab with Julie-with-the-Lettuce-Leaves. Cleopatra quickly had her little brother (Ptolemy XIV) killed to make way for her infant son Caesarion (Little Caesar) as joint ruler, and the players prepared to make their moves. At first it looked good for Arsinoe; Mark Antony, Caesar’s friend and now the leading man in a post-Caesar Rome, seems to have awarded Cyprus jointly to both Cleopatra and Arsinoe, and after receiving no help from Egypt in the next bout of civil war, the Roman general angrily summoned Cleopatra to Tarsus in Asia Minor to give an explanation.

However, it didn't pan out so well for Arsinoe. Her sister very quickly charmed her way into Mark Antony's graces (bed, and heart). And Arsinoe, probably not even 20 years old (according to some historians) wound up decorating the steps of the Temple of Artemis with her blood. Murdered at Cleopatra's order. With Antony's tacit support.

But, after her death, Arsinoe was quickly forgotten. This was a woman (who if she was 20 at the time of her death) would've been fifteen when she had Caesar on the ropes at Alexandria. While Cleopatra has gone on to inspire poetry, art, books, movies. Arsinoe gets a sentence? Most modern people with little to no knowledge of the period recognize the name Cleopatra, mention Arsinoe and they're like "who?"

So, how can Arsinoe IV become as well-known as Cleo? Could Arsinoe get to Antony first? Maybe if she actually defeats Caesar (and could this delay or stay her mutinous troops' hands?)
 
To be clear, it appears that the mastermind behind the siege of Alexandria was the eunuch Ganymedes, who commanded the Egyptian army after Arsinoe executed Achillas. Even after she was switched out for Ptolemy, Ptolemy was able to continue the siege effectively-it was only broken by the arrival of reinforcements.

Assuming Caesar is killed in his initial breakout attempt, it's safe to assume that at least for the time being, the positions of Arsinoe and Ganymedes are safe. Assuming word gets out quickly enough, Antipater and Mithridates should not be expected to come to the aide of Caesar's army. Antipater had only just switched allegiances from Pompey, and in either case with Caesar dead both are astute enough to recognize what this means for the political situation in Rome and hold off and wait out events. This leaves Arsinoe in an interesting position. She could execute Cleopatra or keep her prisoner (though for what purpose I'm not sure) but regardless, at this point it can be assumed Cleopatra is out of the game, unless she managed to escape. Arsinoe is now firmly tied with anti-Caesarion forces-she cannot have Caesarion partisans (Read: Marc Antony, Marcus Aemilius Lepidus, Publius Corneliuus Dolabella; Octavian would not be a major player at this stage) do not win out.

Luckily for Arsinoe, this would be a catastrophic time for Caesar to die. In 47 BCE, despite the defeat of Pompey, things were not looking all that hot for the Caesarions. Antony and Dolabella wound up literally fighting each other in the streets of Rome later in the year over Dolabella's proposal to cancel all debts. While this fight likely wouldn't happen, there's no love lost between these two men. In addition, Caesar has 4 legions camped outside Rome under Antony's command getting restless at not being discharged or receiving bonus and back pay, and entered a mutiny that was only quelled when Caesar returned and convinced them to join him on campaign in Africa. Speaking of which....

Africa is still in the hands of anti-Caesarion forces. Cato, Titus Labienus, and Metellus Scipio are still in Africa. From here it can go any number of ways: I doubt the mutineers are just going to do something rash like kill Antony or something-that it even dragged out long enough for Caesar to return is evidence enough. So likely something is worked out there. Re: the civil war, you could have reconciliation, but I don't see that as a likely possibility with people like Cato and Metellus Scipio still around. So...it's a toss up as to who wins. If Cato & co. prevail, Arsinoe is a big winner. Perhaps she even gets back Cyprus as a token of gratitude, and assuming she ably deals with the political situation in Alexandria, she'll have a nice reign, at least for the time being, barring any future trouble in Rome that brings its way to Egypt.

If the Caesarion's win, well, her position is complicated. Assuming there's still serious infighting and maneuvering among the remaining Caesarionss (whomever they may be), she could finangle her way into gaining the protection of one faction (after all, the ~20,000 troops at her disposal are not nothing and could be a useful addition to any army) much like Cleopatra did. Of course, there's also Ptolemy XIII and Ptolemy XIV who could plausibly be encouraged to replace her. Her position is precarious but not untenable.

Either way, I don't really see a scenario where she rises to the fame of Cleopatra under the above POD but she could carve out quite a successful rule for herself here.
 
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