WI: Arnold loses 2003 Recall Election

What if, in 2003, Arnold Schwarzenegger lost the California Gubernatorial election to the OTL challenger or another Democrat.

What would the ramifications of this be both politically and in the film industry?
 
Politically, our state doesn't crash into the deadlock that anticipated post-2010 USA. But it really depends who exactly is helming the state—there are many factions of Democrat here. Jerry Brown has done a better job than most would, but he's also more moderate too.
 
It would probably see Cruz Bustamante as the statewide governor of California.

For one it's the states' first Hispanic or Non-White governor.
 
It would probably see Cruz Bustamante as the statewide governor of California.

For one it's the states' first Hispanic or Non-White governor.

Not so fast Star Fox. Bustamante would be the first elected however. There's the problem thou, he'd need to overcome a gap of 17% (some 1.5 million voters) between him and Arnold. The best way I could see that is if the Republicans run more star candidates and they all run over each other.

Bustamante would probably work much better with the state legislature, considering he served as the head of both houses at one point. Don't know enough about recent California history to comment otherwise.
 
Since the election was a two-stage ballot, Schwarzenegger could also have lost by having Gray Davis win the yes-or-no question on the recall itself. IOTL, the margin on the recall question was 10.8%, a convincing win but smaller than the 17% margin on the replacement election question.

Davis could have done better on the recall question had California's Democrats agreed to clear the field for him and bet everything on the first question, but probably not well enough. IOTL, exit polls indicate 3-4% of voters voted Yes on the recall but voted for Bustamante in the replacement question, which isn't enough to close the gap even if all of them would have voted against the recall if there were no serious Democratic candidate on the replacement ballot. Davis could probably also have picked up a few more percentage by not having the recall campaign divided between defending Davis and promoting Bustamante as a replacement.

Another path would be for Garamendi rather than Bustamante to run as the Democratic replacement candidate. The exit poll showed Bustamante with a 58% unfavorable rating in the 2003 recall election, and Garamendi did 11% better than Bustamante in the 2006 general election where Garamendi ran for Lieutenant Governor against Tom McClintock and Bustamante ran for Insurance Commissioner against Steve Poizner.

There are also a couple possible PODs related to the Republican field. Richard Riordan could have stayed in the race instead of clearing the field for Schwarzenegger, which could have split the vote of Schwarzenegger OTL supporters. Alternately, the Republican field could have cleared early and completely for Schwarzenegger, making it easier for the Schwarzenegger's opponents to portray him as too conservative without McClintock in the race to serve as a contrast.
 
Another interesting POD might be for Schwarzenegger's two illegitimate sons be discovered, or for the maid and their mother to go on record about his affair with her.

If that were to happen, I doubt he would win.
 

B-29_Bomber

Banned
What if, in 2003, Arnold Schwarzenegger lost the California Gubernatorial election to the OTL challenger or another Democrat.

What would the ramifications of this be both politically and in the film industry?

So, if successful, would you say that this would be called a...


TOTAL RECALL?!


I'll leave now...:D
 
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